Description: A German national project coordinates research on improving a global decadal climate prediction system for future operational use. MiKlip, an eight-year German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the climate model MPI-ESM together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern strategies and structures of research that targets future operational use. Three prediction-system generations have been constructed, characterized by alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multi-year-mean European summer surface temperatures, extra-tropical cyclone tracks, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also displays hindcast skill for wind-energy output. A new volcano code package permits rapid modification of the predictions in response to a future eruption. MiKlip has demonstrated the efficacy of subjecting a single global prediction system to a major research effort. The benefits of this strategy include the rapid cycling through the prediction-system generations, the development of a sophisticated evaluation package usable by all MiKlip researchers, and regional applications of the global predictions. Open research questions include the optimal balance between model resolution and ensemble size, the appropriate method for constructing a prediction ensemble, and the decision between full-field and anomaly initialization. Operational use of the MiKlip system is targeted for the end of the current decade, with a recommended generational cycle of two to three years.

Description: Modular Observation Solutions of Earth Systems (MOSES) is a novel observation system that is specifically designed to unravel the impact of distinct, dynamic events on the long-term development of environmental systems. Hydrometeorological extremes such as the recent European droughts or the floods of 2013 caused severe and lasting environmental damage. Modeling studies suggest that abrupt permafrost thaw events accelerate Arctic greenhouse gas emissions. Short-lived ocean eddies seem to comprise a significant share of the marine carbon uptake or release. Although there is increasing evidence that such dynamic events bear the potential for major environmental impacts, our knowledge on the processes they trigger is still very limited. MOSES aims at capturing such events, from their formation to their end, with high spatial and temporal resolution. As such, the observation system extends and complements existing national and international observation networks, which are mostly designed for long-term monitoring. Several German Helmholtz Association centers have developed this research facility as a mobile and modular “system of systems” to record energy, water, greenhouse gas, and nutrient cycles on the land surface, in coastal regions, in the ocean, in polar regions, and in the atmosphere—but especially the interactions between the Earth compartments. During the implementation period (2017–21), the measuring systems were put into operation and test campaigns were performed to establish event-driven campaign routines. With MOSES’s regular operation starting in 2022, the observation system will then be ready for cross-compartment and cross-discipline research on the environmental impacts of dynamic events.