Beschreibung: Climate reconstructions based on proxy records recovered from marine sediments, such as alkenone records or geochemical parameters measured on foraminifera, play an important role in our understanding of the climate system. They provide information about the state of the ocean ranging back hundreds to millions of years and form the backbone of paleo-oceanography. However, there are many sources of uncertainty associated with the signal recovered from sediment archived proxies. These include seasonal or depth habitat biases in the recorded signal, a frequency dependent reduction in the amplitude of the recorded signal due to bioturbation of the sediment, aliasing of high frequency climate variation onto a nominally annual, decadal or centennial resolution signal, and additional sample processing and measurement error introduced when the proxy signal is recovered. Here we present a forward model for sediment archived proxies that jointly models the above processes, so that the magnitude of their separate and combined effects can be investigated. Applications include the interpretation and analysis of uncertainty in existing proxy records, parameter sensitivity analysis to optimize future studies, and the generation of pseudo-proxy records that can be used to test reconstruction methods. We provide examples, such as the simulation of individual foraminifera records, that demonstrate the usefulness of the forward model for paleoclimate studies. The model is implemented as a user-friendly R package, sedproxy, the use of which we hope will contribute to a better understanding of both the limitations and potential of marine sediment proxies to inform about past climate.

Beschreibung: Compound-specific radiocarbon (14C) dating often requires working with small samples of 〈 100 µg carbon (µgC). This makes the radiocarbon dates of biomarker compounds very sensitive to biases caused by extraneous carbon of unknown composition, a procedural blank, which is introduced to the samples during the steps necessary to prepare a sample for radiocarbon analysis by accelerator mass spectrometry (i.e., isolating single compounds from a heterogeneous mixture, combustion, gas purification and graphitization). Reporting accurate radiocarbon dates thus requires a correction for the procedural blank. We present our approach to assess the fraction modern carbon (F14C) and the mass of the procedural blanks introduced during the preparation procedures of lipid biomarkers (i.e. n-alkanoic acids) and lignin phenols. We isolated differently sized aliquots (6–151 µgC) of n-alkanoic acids and lignin phenols obtained from standard materials with known F14C values. Each compound class was extracted from two standard materials (one fossil, one modern) and purified using the same procedures as for natural samples of unknown F14C. There is an inverse linear relationship between the measured F14C values of the processed aliquots and their mass, which suggests constant contamination during processing of individual samples. We use Bayesian methods to fit linear regression lines between F14C and 1/mass for the fossil and modern standards. The intersection points of these lines are used to infer F14Cblank and mblank and their associated uncertainties. We estimate 4.88 ± 0.69 μgC of procedural blank with F14C of 0.714 ± 0.077 for n-alkanoic acids, and 0.90 ± 0.23 μgC of procedural blank with F14C of 0.813 ± 0.155 for lignin phenols. These F14Cblank and mblank can be used to correct AMS results of lipid and lignin samples by isotopic mass balance. This method may serve as a standardized procedure for blank assessment in small-scale radiocarbon analysis.

Beschreibung: Proxy records represent an invaluable source of information for reconstructing past climatic variations, but they are associated with considerable uncertainties. For a systematic quantification of these reconstruction errors, however, knowledge is required not only of their individual sources but also of their auto-correlation structure as this determines the timescale dependence of their magnitude, an issue that has been often ignored until now. Here a spectral approach to uncertainty analysis is provided for paleoclimate reconstructions obtained from single sediment proxy records. The formulation in the spectral domain rather than the time domain allows for an explicit demonstration and quantification of the timescale dependence that is inherent in any proxy-based reconstruction uncertainty. This study is published in two parts. In this first part, the theoretical concept is presented, and analytic expressions are derived for the power spectral density of the reconstruction error of sediment proxy records. The underlying model takes into account the spectral structure of the climate signal, seasonal and orbital variations, bioturbation, sampling of a finite number of signal carriers, and uncorrelated measurement noise, and it includes the effects of spectral aliasing and leakage. The uncertainty estimation method, based upon this model, is illustrated by simple examples. In the second part of this study, published separately, the method is implemented in an application-oriented context, and more detailed examples are presented.

Beschreibung: The current geochronological state of the art for applying the radiocarbon (14C) method to deep-sea sediment archives lacks key information on sediment bioturbation. Here, we apply a sediment accumulation model that simulates the sedimentation and bioturbation of millions of foraminifera, whereby realistic 14C activities (i.e. from a 14C calibration curve) are assigned to each single foraminifera based on its simulation time step. We find that the normal distribution of 14C age typically used to represent discrete-depth sediment intervals (based on the reported laboratory 14C age and measurement error) is unlikely to be a faithful reflection of the actual 14C age distribution for a specific depth interval. We also find that this deviation from the actual 14C age distribution is greatly amplified during the calibration process. Specifically, we find a systematic underestimation of total geochronological error in many cases (by up to thousands of years), as well as the generation of age–depth artefacts in downcore calibrated median age. Even in the case of “perfect” simulated sediment archive scenarios, whereby sediment accumulation rate (SAR), bioturbation depth, reservoir age and species abundance are all kept constant, the 14C measurement and calibration processes generate temporally dynamic median age–depth artefacts on the order of hundreds of years – whereby even high SAR scenarios (40 and 60 cm kyr−1) are susceptible. Such age–depth artefacts can be especially pronounced during periods corresponding to dynamic changes in the Earth's Δ14C history, when single foraminifera of varying 14C activity can be incorporated into single discrete-depth sediment intervals. For certain lower-SAR scenarios, we find that downcore discrete-depth true median age can systematically fall outside the calibrated age range predicted by the 14C measurement and calibration processes, thus leading to systematically inaccurate age estimations. In short, our findings suggest the possibility of 14C-derived age–depth artefacts in the literature. Furthermore, since such age–depth artefacts are likely to coincide with large-scale changes in global Δ14C, which themselves can coincide with large-scale changes in global climate (such as the last deglaciation), 14C-derived age–depth artefacts may have been previously incorrectly attributed to changes in SAR coinciding with global climate. Our study highlights the need for the development of improved deep-sea sediment 14C calibration techniques that include an a priori representation of bioturbation for multi-specimen samples.

Beschreibung: Although numerous pollen records are available worldwide in various databases, their use for synthesis works is limited as the chronologies are, as yet, not harmonized globally, and temporal uncertainties are unknown. We present a chronology framework named LegacyAge 1.0 that includes harmonized chronologies of 2831 palynological records (out of 3471 available records), downloaded from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database (last access: April 2021) and 324 additional Asian records. All chronologies use the Bayesian framework implemented in Bacon version 2.5.3. Optimal parameter settings of priors (accumulation.shape, memory.strength, memory.mean, accumulation.rate, thickness) were identified based on previous experiences or iteratively after preliminary model inspection. The most common control points for the chronologies are radiocarbon dates (86.1 %), calibrated by the latest calibration curves (IntCal20 and SHcal20 for the terrestrial radiocarbon dates in the northern and southern hemispheres; Marine20 for marine materials). The original literature was consulted when dealing with obvious outliers and inconsistencies. Several major challenges when setting up the chronologies included the waterline issue (18.8 % of records), reservoir effect (4.9 %), and sediment deposition discontinuity (4.4 %). Finally, we numerically compare the LegacyAge 1.0 chronologies to the original ones and show that the chronologies of 95.4 % of records could be improved according to our assessment. Our chronology framework and revised chronologies provide the opportunity to make use of the ages and age uncertainties in synthesis studies of, for example, pollen-based vegetation and climate change. The LegacyAge 1.0 dataset and R code used are open-access and available at PANGAEA (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.933132) and Github (https://github.com/LongtermEcology/LegacyAge-1.0), respectively.

Beschreibung: Key Points: - Novel micro-analytical techniques allow seasonally resolved climate proxy data from varved marine sediments - Potential to generate seasonal and inter annual resolution sea surface temperature proxy time series spanning 〉1,000 years - Thorough assessment of processes that influence the climate signal recovered from proxies, validated with careful replication, is required Three recently published papers including Napier et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021PA004355) utilize novel microanalytical approaches with varved marine sediments to demonstrate the potential to reconstruct seasonal and inter-annual climate variability. Obtaining paleoclimate data at a resolution akin to the observational record is vitally important for improving our understanding of climate phenomena such as monsoons and modes of variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, for which appraisals of past inter-annual variability is critical. The ability to generate seasonal and inter annual resolution sea surface temperature proxy time series spanning a thousand years or more is revolutionary and has the potential to fill gaps in our knowledge of climate variability. Although generally limited to sediments from regions with oxygen depleted bottom waters, there is great potential to integrate shorter seasonal resolution climate “snap shots” from other archives such as annually banded corals into composite time series. But as paleoceanographic data are used more by the observational and modeling fields, we make the case for conducting a thorough case-by-case assessment of the processes that influence the climate signal recovered from proxies, using careful replication to validate new approaches. Understanding or exploring the potential influence of processes which effectively filter the climate signal will lead to more quantitative paleoceanographic data that will better serve the broader climate science community.

Beschreibung: Proxy climate records are an invaluable source of information about the earth's climate prior to the instrumental record. The temporal and spatial coverage of records continues to increase; however, these records of past climate are associated with significant uncertainties due to non-climate processes that influence the recorded and measured proxy values. Generally, these uncertainties are timescale dependent and correlated in time. Accounting for structure in the errors is essential for providing realistic error estimates for smoothed or stacked records, detecting anomalies, and identifying trends, but this structure is seldom accounted for. In the first of these companion articles, we outlined a theoretical framework for handling proxy uncertainties by deriving the power spectrum of proxy error components from which it is possible to obtain timescale-dependent error estimates. Here in Part 2, we demonstrate the practical application of this theoretical framework using the example of marine sediment cores. We consider how to obtain estimates for the required parameters and give examples of the application of this approach for typical marine sediment proxy records. Our new approach of estimating and providing timescale-dependent proxy errors overcomes the limitations of simplistic single-value error estimates. We aim to provide the conceptual basis for a more quantitative use of paleo-records for applications such as model–data comparison, regional and global synthesis of past climate states, and data assimilation.

Beschreibung: Marine sedimentary archives are routinely used to reconstruct past environmental changes. In many cases, bioturbation and sedimentary mixing affect the proxy time-series and the age-depth relationship. While idealized models of bioturbation exist, they usually assume homogeneous mixing, thus that a single sample is representative for the sediment layer it is sampled from. However, it is largely unknown to which extent this assumption holds for sediments used for paleoclimate reconstructions. To shed light on 1) the age-depth relationship and its full uncertainty, 2) the magnitude of mixing processes affecting the downcore proxy variations, and 3) the representativity of the discrete sample for the sediment layer, we designed and performed a case study on South China Sea sediment material which was collected using a box corer and which covers the last glacial cycle. Using the radiocarbon content of foraminiferal tests as a tracer of time, we characterize the spatial age-heterogeneity of sediments in a three-dimensional setup. In total, 118 radiocarbon measurements were performed on defined small- and large-volume bulk samples ( ∼ 200 specimens each) to investigate the horizontal heterogeneity of the sediment. Additionally, replicated measurements on small numbers of specimens (10 × 5 specimens) were performed to assess the heterogeneity within a sample volume. Visual assessment of X-ray images and a quantitative assessment of the mixing strength show typical mixing from bioturbation corresponding to around 10 cm mixing depth. Notably, our 3D radiocarbon distribution reveals that the horizontal heterogeneity (up to 1,250 years), contributing to the age uncertainty, is several times larger than the typically assumed radiocarbon based age-model error (single errors up to 250 years). Furthermore, the assumption of a perfectly bioturbated layer with no mixing underneath is not met. Our analysis further demonstrates that the age-heterogeneity might be a function of sample size; smaller samples might contain single features from the incomplete mixing and are thus less representative than larger samples. We provide suggestions for future studies, optimal sampling strategies for quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions and realistic uncertainty in age models, as well as discuss possible implications for the interpretation of paleoclimate records.