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  • 1
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    National Center for Infectious Diseases
    In:  Emerging Infectious diseases, 8 (9). pp. 914-917.
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-07-30
    Beschreibung: We used time-series analysis and linear regression to investigate the relationship between the annual Niño-3 index from 1980 to 1998 and the annual incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the State of Bahia, Brazil, during 1985–1999. An increase in VL incidence was observed in the post-El Niño years 1989 (+38.7%) and 1995 (+33.5%). The regression model demonstrates that the previous year’s mean Niño-3 index and the temporal trend account for approximately 50% of the variance in the annual incidence of VL in Bahia. The model shows a robust agreement with the real data, as only the influence of El Niño on the cycle of VL was analyzed. The results suggest that this relationship could be used to predict high-risk years for VL and thus help reduce health impact in susceptible regions in Brazil.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 2
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 27 (18). 2941-2944 .
    Publikationsdatum: 2018-02-14
    Beschreibung: The sensitivity of the thermal structure of the equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean pycnoclines to a model's representation of the Indonesian Straits connecting the two basins is investigated. Two integrations are performed using the global HOPE ocean model. The initial conditions and surface forcing for both cases are identical; the only difference between the runs is that one has an opening for the Indonesian Straits which spans the equator on the Pacific side, and the other has an opening which lies fully north of the equator. The resulting sensitivity throughout much of the upper ocean is greater than 0.5°C for both the equatorial Indian and Pacific. A realistic simulation of net Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport (measured in Sverdrups) is not sufficient for an adequate simulation of equatorial watermasses. The ITF must also contain a realistic admixture of northern and southern Pacific source water.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 3
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 15 (2). pp. 216-225.
    Publikationsdatum: 2018-07-24
    Beschreibung: Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses (rotated or not) are widely used in climate research. In recent years there have been several studies in which EOF analyses were used to highlight potential physical mechanisms associated with climate variability. For example, several SST modes were identified such as the “Tropical Atlantic Dipole,” the “Tropical Indian Ocean Dipole,” and different SLP modes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. In this note it is emphasized that caution should be used when trying to interpret these statistically derived modes and their significance. Indeed, from a synthetic example it is shown that patterns derived from EOF analyses can be misleading at times and associated with very little climate physics.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 4
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    Springer
    In:  Climate Dynamics, 19 (3-4). pp. 277-288.
    Publikationsdatum: 2016-09-13
    Beschreibung: Statistical analyses of monthly mean sea surface temperatures (SST) from observations and from a hierarchy of global coupled ocean-atmosphere models were carried out with the focus on the midlatitudes (25°N-50°N). The spectra of the simulated SSTs have been tested against the null hypothesis of Hasselmann's stochastic climate model, which assumes an AR(1)-process for the SST variability in its simplest version. It was found that the spectra of the SST variability in the observations and in the CGCMs with fully dynamical ocean models differ significantly from AR(1)-processes, while the SST variability in an AGCM coupled to a slab ocean is consistent with an AR(1)-process. The deviations of the SST spectra from the fitted AR(1) spectra are not due to spectral peaks but are due to a slower increase of variance from seasonal to decadal time scales. Parts of these differences can be attributed to the interaction between the mixed layer and the sub-mixed-layer ocean. While the mixed layer depth variability generates SST variability on seasonal and shorter time scales, the heat exchange with the deep ocean, reduces variability on longer time scales.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 5
    Publikationsdatum: 2016-09-13
    Beschreibung: We describe the behaviour of 23 dynamical ocean-atmosphere models, in the context of comparison with observations in a common framework. Fields of tropical sea surface temperature (SST), surface wind stress and upper ocean vertically averaged temperature (VAT) are assessed with regard to annual mean, seasonal cycle, and interannual variability characteristics. Of the participating models, 21 are coupled GCMs, of which 13 use no form of flux adjustment in the tropics. The models vary widely in design, components and purpose: nevertheless several common features are apparent. In most models without flux adjustment, the annual mean equatorial SST in the central Pacific is too cool and the Atlantic zonal SST gradient has the wrong sign. Annual mean wind stress is often too weak in the central Pacific and in the Atlantic, but too strong in the west Pacific. Few models have an upper ocean VAT seasonal cycle like that observed in the equatorial Pacific. Interannual variability is commonly too weak in the models: in particular, wind stress variability is low in the equatorial Pacific. Most models have difficulty in reproducing the observed Pacific 'horseshoe' pattern of negative SST correlations with interannual Niño3 SST anomalies, or the observed Indian-Pacific lag correlations. The results for the fields examined indicate that several substantial model improvements are needed, particularly with regard to surface wind stress.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 6
    Publikationsdatum: 2016-09-08
    Beschreibung:  An ensemble of twenty four coupled ocean-atmosphere models has been compared with respect to their performance in the tropical Pacific. The coupled models span a large portion of the parameter space and differ in many respects. The intercomparison includes TOGA (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere)-type models consisting of high-resolution tropical ocean models and coarse-resolution global atmosphere models, coarse-resolution global coupled models, and a few global coupled models with high resolution in the equatorial region in their ocean components. The performance of the annual mean state, the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability are investigated. The primary quantity analysed is sea surface temperature (SST). Additionally, the evolution of interannual heat content variations in the tropical Pacific and the relationship between the interannual SST variations in the equatorial Pacific to fluctuations in the strength of the Indian summer monsoon are investigated. The results can be summarised as follows: almost all models (even those employing flux corrections) still have problems in simulating the SST climatology, although some improvements are found relative to earlier intercomparison studies. Only a few of the coupled models simulate the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in terms of gross equatorial SST anomalies realistically. In particular, many models overestimate the variability in the western equatorial Pacific and underestimate the SST variability in the east. The evolution of interannual heat content variations is similar to that observed in almost all models. Finally, the majority of the models show a strong connection between ENSO and the strength of the Indian summer monsoon.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 7
    Publikationsdatum: 2016-09-08
    Beschreibung:  Decadal time scale climate variability in the North Pacific has implications for climate both locally and over North America. A crucial question is the degree to which this variability arises from coupled ocean/atmosphere interactions over the North Pacific that involve ocean dynamics, as opposed to either purely thermodynamic effects of the oceanic mixed layer integrating in situ the stochastic atmospheric forcing, or the teleconnected response to tropical variability. The part of the variability that is coming from local coupled ocean/atmosphere interactions involving ocean dynamics is potentially predictable by an ocean/atmosphere general circulation model (O/A GCM), and such predictions could (depending on the achievable lead time) have distinct societal benefits. This question is examined using the results of fully coupled O/A GCMs, as well as targeted numerical experiments with stand-alone ocean and atmosphere models individually. It is found that coupled ocean/atmosphere interactions that involve ocean dynamics are important to determining the strength and frequency of a decadal-time scale peak in the spectra of several oceanic variables in the Kuroshio extension region off Japan. Local stochastic atmospheric heat flux forcing, integrated by the oceanic mixed layer into a red spectrum, provides a noise background from which the signal must be extracted. Although teleconnected ENSO responses influence the North Pacific in the 2–7 years/cycle frequency band, it is shown that some decadal-time scale processes in the North Pacific proceed without ENSO. Likewise, although the effects of stochastic atmospheric forcing on ocean dynamics are discernible, a feedback path from the ocean to the atmosphere is suggested by the results.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 8
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 13 (4). pp. 777-792.
    Publikationsdatum: 2018-07-24
    Beschreibung: Analyses of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SST) from observations for the period 1903–94 and four different general circulation models (GCMs) were conducted. The two dominant EOFs of all datasets are characterized by two patterns, which are centered in the trade wind zones, at roughly 15°N and 15°S, respectively. The two patterns are uncorrelated at any lag and the time spectra of the corresponding principle components are consistent with red noise. The SST variability is strongly correlated with wind stress anomalies in the trade wind zones. The correlations between the wind stress and the SST, as well as the correlation between the net heat flux and the SST anomalies are consistent with the assumption that the variability of the upper tropical Atlantic Ocean is forced by the atmosphere. Dynamic feedbacks of the tropical Atlantic Ocean are less important. The variability in the trade wind zones shows a weak correlation with the ENSO mode in the tropical Pacific.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 9
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 28 (3). p. 539.
    Publikationsdatum: 2018-02-14
    Beschreibung: Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) observations suggests a pan‐oceanic interaction between the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean at multi‐decadal time scales, such that periods of anomalously high SSTs in the tropical Pacific are followed by a basin‐wide SST dipole in the Atlantic Ocean with a time delay of a few decades. The SST anomaly structure in the Atlantic Ocean is reminscent of variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The two ocean basins are linked through an “atmospheric bridge” involving anomalous fresh water fluxes. Based on the observational findings, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation may strengthen during the next decades in response to the strong decades‐long increase in tropical Pacific SST, which will have strong impacts on the climates of North America and Europe through changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 10
    Publikationsdatum: 2015-11-09
    Materialart: Article , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: text
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