Note: Intro -- CONTENTS -- 1 Global Ecology, Networks, and Research Synthesis -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Carbon and Water Cycles in the 21 st Century -- 1.3 Changing Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning -- 1.4 Landscapes under Changing Disturbance Regimes -- 1.5 Managing Ecosystem Services -- 1.6 Regions under Stress -- 1.7 The Way Forward -- References -- Part A Carbon and Water Cycles in the 21 st Century -- 2 CO 2 Fertilization: When, Where, How Much? -- 2.1 Carbon a Limiting Plant Resource? -- 2.2 Long-Term Biomass Responses and Carbon Pools -- 2.2.1 Time Matters -- 2.2.2 Nutrients and Water Determine Biomass Responses at Elevated CO 2 -- 2.2.3 Scaling from Growth to Carbon Pools -- 2.3 Carbon to Nutrient Ratios and Consumer Responses -- 2.3.1 The C to N Ratio Widens -- 2.3.2 Consequences for Herbivory, Decomposition and Plant Nutrition -- 2.4 Plant Water Relations and Hydrological Implications -- 2.5 Stress Resistance under Elevated CO 2 -- 2.6 Biodiversity Effects May Outweigh Physiology Effects -- 2.6.1 Hydrology Implications of Elevated CO 2 Depend on Species Abundance -- 2.6.2 Biodiversity Effects on Forest Carbon Stocking and Grassland Responses -- 2.7 Summary and Conclusions -- References -- 3 Ecosystem Responses to Warming and Interacting Global Change Factors -- 3.1 The Multiple Factor Imperative in Global Change Research -- 3.2 Ecosystem Responses to Experimental Warming -- 3.2.1 The GCTE-NEWS Synthesis -- 3.2.2 The ITEX Synthesis -- 3.2.3 The Harvard Forest Soil Warming Experiment -- 3.3 Temperature and CO 2 Interactions in Trees: the TACIT Experiment -- 3.3.1 Experimental Design -- 3.3.2 Growth Responses -- 3.3.3 Higher-Order Responses -- 3.3.4 TACIT Summary -- 3.4 More Than Two Factors: the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment -- 3.4.1 Experimental Design -- 3.4.2 Net Primary Productivity -- 3.4.3 Community Composition. , 3.4.4 JRGCE Summary -- 3.5 Modeling Temperature, CO 2 and N Interactions in Trees and Grass -- 3.5.1 Global Change Simulations for a California Annual Grassland -- 3.5.2 Comparing Forest and Grassland with G'DAY -- 3.6 Summary and Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 4 Insights from Stable Isotopes on the Role of Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Global Carbon Cycle -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Ecosystem Carbon Cycles -- 4.3 The Global Carbon Cycle -- 4.4 Future Directions -- Acknowledgments -- In Memoriam -- References -- 5 Effects of Urban Land-Use Change on Biogeochemical Cycles -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Urban Land-Use Change -- 5.3 Urban Environmental Factors -- 5.3.1 Climate and Atmospheric Composition -- 5.3.2 Atmospheric and Soil Pollution -- 5.3.3 Introductions of Exotic Species -- 5.4 Disturbance and Management Effects -- 5.4.1 Lawn and Horticultural Management -- 5.4.2 Management Effort -- 5.5 Effects of Built Environment -- 5.6 Assessing Biogeochemical Effects - the Importance of Scale -- 5.7 Summary and Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 6 Saturation of the Terrestrial Carbon Sink -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Location of the Current Terrestrial Carbon Sinks -- 6.3 Dynamics of Processes that Contribute to Carbon Sink Saturation -- 6.4 Processes Contributing to Terrestrial Carbon Sink Saturation -- 6.4.1 Processes Driven by Atmospheric Composition Change -- 6.4.2 Processes Driven by Climate Change -- 6.4.3 Processes Driven by Land-Use Change and Land Management -- 6.5 Integration and Model Predictions -- 6.6 Summary and Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Part B Changing Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning -- 7 Functional Diversity - at the Crossroads between Ecosystem Functioning and Environmental Filters -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Environmental Filters Affect FD -- 7.3 FD effects on Global Change Drivers. , 7.3.1 The Traits of the Dominants -- 7.3.2 The Role of Interactions -- 7.4 Summary and Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 8 Linking Plant Invasions to Global Environmental Change -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Plant Invasions and Elevated CO 2 -- 8.3 Plant Invasions and Climatic Change -- 8.4 Plant Invasions and Land Eutrophication -- 8.5 Plant Invasions and Changes in Land Use/Cover -- 8.6 Multiple Interactions -- 8.7 Summary and Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 9 Plant Biodiversity and Responses to Elevated Carbon Dioxide -- 9.1 Ten Years of GCTE Research: Apprehending Complexity -- 9.1.1 Effects of CO 2 on Plant Diversity Through Alterations of the Physical Environment -- 9.2 Temporal Variation and Response to Elevated CO 2 -- 9.2.1 Reproductive and Evolutionary Aspects of the Response to Elevated CO 2 -- 9.2.2 Communities at Equilibrium Versus Dynamic Systems -- 9.3 Biodiversity Loss and Response to Elevated CO 2 -- 9.3.1 Species Diversity and Response to Elevated CO 2 -- 9.3.2 Ecosystem C Fluxes in a Species-Poor World -- 9.4 Summary and Conclusions -- References -- 10 Predicting the Ecosystem Consequences of Biodiversity Loss: the Biomerge Framework -- 10.1 Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning: a Synthesis -- 10.1.1 Why Biodiversity Matters to Global Change Ecology -- 10.1.2 Linking Change in Biodiversity with Change in Ecosystem Functioning -- 10.1.3 Lessons Learned from Early Debates -- 10.1.4 What We Have Learned about the Relationship between Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function -- 10.1.5 The Scientific Framework for Linking Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning -- 10.2 The BioMERGE Framework -- 10.2.1 The BioMERGE Structural Sub-Framework -- 10.2.2 The BioMERGE BEF Sub-Framework: an Expansion of the Vitousek-Hooper Framework -- 10.2.3 The BioMERGE Research Implementation Sub-Framework. , 10.3 Discussion: Towards a Large Scale BEF -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Part C Landscapes under Changing Disturbance Regimes -- 11 Plant Species Migration as a Key Uncertainty in Predicting Future Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystems: Progress and Challenges -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Will Migration Be Necessary for Species Persistence? -- 11.2.1 Vegetation-Type Models -- 11.2.2 Species-Based Models -- 11.3 Measurements and Models of Migration Rates -- 11.4 Linking Migration and Niche Based Models -- 11.5 Summary and Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 12 Understanding Global Fire Dynamics by Classifying and Comparing Spatial Models of Vegetation and Fire -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Background -- 12.3 Model Classification -- 12.4 Model Comparison -- 12.4.1 The Models -- 12.4.2 The Comparison Design -- 12.5 Results and Discussion -- 12.5.1 Model Classification -- 12.5.2 Model Comparison -- 12.6 Summary and Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 13 Plant Functional Types: Are We Getting Any Closer to the Holy Grail? -- 13.1 In Search of the Holy Grail -- 13.2 Individual Plant Structure and Function -- 13.3 Traits and Environmental Gradients -- 13.3.1 Plant Functional Response to Mineral Resource Availability -- 13.3.2 Plant Functional Response to Disturbance -- 13.3.3 Projecting Changes in Plant Functional Traits in Response to Global Change -- 13.4 Scaling from Individual Plants to Communities: from Response Traits to Community Assembly -- 13.5 Scaling from Communities to Ecosystems: from Response Traits to Effect Traits -- 13.6 So, Are We Getting Closer to the Holy Grail? Scaling beyond Ecosystems -- 13.6.1 Plant Functional Traits and Landscape Dynamics -- 13.6.2 Regional to Global Models - Revisiting the Early Functional Classifications -- 13.6.3 Validation: the Contribution of Paleo-Data. , 13.7 Summary and Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 14 Spatial Nonlinearities: Cascading Effects in the Earth System -- 14.1 Introduction -- 14.2 Conceptual Framework -- 14.3 Insights to Global Change Issues -- 14.3.1 Historical Example: the Dust Bowl of the 1930s -- 14.3.2 Wildfire -- 14.3.3 Invasive Species and Desertification -- 14.4 Forecasting Spatial Nonlinearities and Catastrophic Events -- 14.5 Summary and Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 15 Dynamic Global Vegetation Modeling: Quantifying Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Large-Scale Environmental Change -- 15.1 Introduction -- 15.2 Historical Antecedents and Development of DGVMs -- 15.2.1 Plant Geography -- 15.2.2 Plant Physiology and Biogeochemistry -- 15.2.3 Vegetation Dynamics -- 15.2.4 Biophysics -- 15.2.5 Human Intervention -- 15.3 Principles and Construction of DGVMs -- 15.3.1 Model Architecture -- 15.3.2 Net Primary Production -- 15.3.3 Plant Growth and Vegetation Dynamics -- 15.3.4 Hydrology -- 15.3.5 Soil Organic Matter Transformations -- 15.3.6 Nitrogen (N) Cycling -- 15.3.7 Disturbance -- 15.4 Evaluating DGVMS -- 15.4.1 Net Primary Production -- 15.4.2 Remotely Sensed "Greenness" and Vegetation Composition -- 15.4.3 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration -- 15.4.4 Runoff -- 15.4.5 CO 2 and Water Flux Measurements -- 15.5 Examples of Applications of DGVMS -- 15.5.1 Holocene Changes in Atmospheric CO 2 -- 15.5.2 Boreal "Greening" and the Contemporary Carbon Balance -- 15.5.3 The Pinatubo Effect -- 15.5.4 Future Carbon Balance Projections -- 15.5.5 Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks to Future Climate Change -- 15.5.6 Effects of Land-Use Change on the Carbon Cycle -- 15.6 Some Perspectives and Research Needs -- 15.6.1 Comparison with Field Experiments -- 15.6.2 Plant Functional Types -- 15.6.3 The Nitrogen Cycle -- 15.6.4 Plant Dispersal and Migration -- 15.6.5 Wetlands. , 15.6.6 Multiple Nutrient Limitations.

Note: Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- 1: Ecosystem Collapse and Climate Change: An Introduction -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Defining Ecosystems Collapse -- 1.3 Observed Dynamics as They Occur -- 1.3.1 Polar and Boreal Ecosystems -- 1.3.2 Temperate and Semi-arid Ecosystems -- 1.3.3 Tropical and Temperate Coastal Ecosystems -- References -- Part I: Polar and Boreal Ecosystems -- 2: Ecosystem Collapse on a Sub-Antarctic Island -- 2.1 Background -- 2.2 The Collapse -- 2.2.1 Former State -- 2.2.2 Progression to the New State -- 2.2.3 Functional Changes -- 2.2.4 Context of the Change -- 2.3 Major Causes -- 2.4 Prognosis and Management Strategies -- 2.5 Wider Context -- References -- 3: Permafrost Thaw in Northern Peatlands: Rapid Changes in Ecosystem and Landscape Functions -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Current Distribution and Characteristics of Peatlands in the Northern Permafrost Region -- 3.2.1 Current Peatland Distribution and Major Regions -- 3.2.2 Peatland Characteristics Across Permafrost Zones -- 3.2.2.1 Peatlands in the Continuous Permafrost Zone -- 3.2.2.2 Peatlands in the Discontinuous Permafrost Zone -- 3.2.2.3 Peatlands in the Sporadic Permafrost Zone -- 3.3 Holocene Development of Peatlands in the Northern Permafrost Region -- 3.3.1 Timing and Mode of Peatland Initiation -- 3.3.2 Timing and Processes of Permafrost Aggradation -- 3.3.3 Holocene Carbon Accumulation in Permafrost Peatlands -- 3.4 Observed Peatland Change Associated with Permafrost Thaw -- 3.4.1 Peatland Change in the Continuous Permafrost Zone -- 3.4.2 Peatland Change in the Discontinuous and Sporadic Permafrost Zones -- 3.5 Implications of Permafrost Thaw -- 3.5.1 Hydrology and Water Quality -- 3.5.2 Ecology and Human Use -- 3.5.3 Carbon Cycling and Greenhouse Gas Exchange -- 3.5.4 Interactions Between Wildfire, Permafrost Thaw, and Peatland Carbon Balance -- 3.6 Conclusions. , References -- 4: Post-fire Recruitment Failure as a Driver of Forest to Non-forest Ecosystem Shifts in Boreal Regions -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Role of Fire in Boreal Forests -- 4.2.1 Post-fire Recruitment Dynamics -- 4.2.2 Post-fire Recruitment Failure -- 4.2.3 A Case Study of Post-fire Recruitment Failure in Southern Siberia -- 4.3 Drivers of Change in the Boreal Forest Zone -- 4.3.1 Climate Change -- 4.3.1.1 Climate Change and Increases in the Fire Regime -- 4.3.1.2 Climate Change and Decreased Ecosystem Resilience -- 4.3.2 Management and Human Influence -- 4.3.2.1 Forest Management and the Fire Regime -- 4.4 Measuring the Scale of the Problem -- 4.4.1 Disturbance Detection -- 4.4.2 Large-Scale Trends in Vegetation -- 4.4.3 Detecting Post-fire Recruitment Failure -- 4.4.4 Post-fire Recruitment Failure and the Prediction of Future Climate -- 4.5 Future Management -- References -- 5: A Paleo-perspective on Ecosystem Collapse in Boreal North America -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Ecosystem Collapse During the Late Pleistocene -- 5.2.1 Abrupt Climatic Changes -- 5.2.2 Human Disturbance -- 5.3 Ecosystem Building During Early- to Mid-Holocene -- 5.3.1 Creation of the Boreal Forest Environment -- 5.3.2 Peatland Expansion -- 5.3.3 Southern Conifer Forest and Insects -- 5.4 Ecosystem Collapse After the Mid-Holocene -- 5.4.1 Ecosystem Collapse in the Northern Part of the Boreal Forest -- 5.4.1.1 Climate-Fire Interactions -- 5.4.1.2 Collateral Effects of Forest Collapse -- 5.4.1.3 Extensive Collapse of Woodlands During the Little Ice Age -- 5.4.1.4 Wetland Ecosystem Collapse -- 5.4.1.5 Changing Water Levels of Subarctic Lakes and Rivers -- 5.4.2 Ecosystem Collapse in the Southern Part of the Boreal Forest -- 5.4.2.1 Shift of Closed-Crown Forests to Woodlands -- 5.4.2.2 Microclimatic Signatures of Closed-Crown Forests and Woodlands. , 5.5 Present Post-Little Ice Age Warming and Ecosystem Collapse and Recovery -- 5.5.1 Tree Line Advance, Regeneration and Consolidation of Pre-existing Forests of the Forest-Tundra Ecotone -- 5.5.2 Shrubification of the Northern Part of the Boreal Biome -- 5.5.3 Collapse and Recovery of Wetland and Riparian Ecosystems -- 5.6 Lessons Learned from the Past to Anticipate the Future -- References -- Part II: Temperate and Semi-arid Ecosystems -- 6: The 2016 Tasmanian Wilderness Fires: Fire Regime Shifts and Climate Change in a Gondwanan Biogeographic Refugium -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 The 2016 Wilderness Fires -- 6.2.1 2016 Fire Impacts on A. cupressoides Populations -- 6.3 Persistence of A. cupressoides Under Climate Change -- 6.4 Broader Ecological Impacts -- 6.5 Anthropocene Management Responses -- 6.6 Conclusions -- References -- 7: Climate-Induced Global Forest Shifts due to Heatwave-Drought -- 7.1 Overview of Forest Mortality Episodes at the Global Scale -- 7.2 Causes of Forest Mortality by Drought -- 7.3 Historical Perspective of Forest Shifts -- 7.4 Abrupt Forest Mortality Events and Ecosystem Trajectory -- 7.4.1 General Trends -- 7.4.2 Cases of Forest Collapse and Its Relation with Management -- 7.5 Enhancing Resilience -- 7.5.1 Water Demand Strategy -- 7.5.2 Population and Biodiversity-Based Strategies -- 7.5.3 Disturbance Regime-Based Strategy: Wildfires -- 7.6 Future Prognosis of Forest Collapse -- 7.7 Conclusion -- References -- 8: Extreme Events Trigger Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystem Collapses in the Southwestern USA and Southwestern Australia -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.1.1 Progressively Intense Ecological Stresses: From Drought to Warming to Heatwaves -- 8.1.2 Legacy Effects, Disturbance Interactions, and Order of Events -- 8.1.3 Ecosystem Collapses in Southwestern Australia and the USA -- 8.2 Southwestern USA Case Study. , 8.2.1 Terrestrial Drivers and Ecosystem Responses in the Southwestern USA -- 8.2.2 Marine Drivers and Ecosystem Responses in Southwestern USA -- 8.3 Southwestern Australian Case Study -- 8.3.1 Terrestrial Drivers and Ecosystem Responses in Southwestern Australia -- 8.3.2 Marine Drivers and Ecosystem Responses in Southwestern Australia -- 8.4 Ecological Implications -- 8.4.1 Prognosis for the Future -- 8.5 Managing Ecosystem Collapse and Future Research -- References -- Part III: Tropical and Temperate Coastal Ecosystems -- 9: Processes and Factors Driving Change in Mangrove Forests: An Evaluation Based on the Mass Dieback Event in Australia´s Gulf... -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Dynamic Processes Influencing Tidal Wetlands and Mangroves -- 9.2.1 Level 1: Global Setting of Tidal Wetlands: Site Geomorphology, Sea Level and Climate -- 9.2.2 Level 2: Composition of Dominant Vegetation Types of Tidal Wetlands: Regional Influences of Temperature and Rainfall -- 9.2.3 Level 3: Sustainable Turnover and Replenishment of Mangrove Forests: Small-Scale, Natural Disturbance Driving Forest Re-... -- 9.2.4 Level 4: Severe Drivers of Change and Replacement of Tidal Wetland Habitat: Large-Scale Disturbance-Recovery Dynamics In... -- 9.3 Climate and Natural Drivers of Key Environmental Changes Along Mangrove Shorelines -- 9.3.1 Shoreline Erosion and Seafront Retreat: Severe Storms, Sea Level Rise -- 9.3.2 Estuarine Bank Erosion: Flood Events, Sea Level Rise -- 9.3.3 Terrestrial Retreat: Upland Erosion, Sea Level Rise -- 9.3.4 Saltpan Scouring: Pan Erosion, Sea Level Rise -- 9.3.5 Depositional Gain: Flood Events, Sea Level Rise -- 9.3.6 Severe Storm Damage: Mangrove Dieback, Cyclonic Winds, Large Waves -- 9.3.7 Light Gaps: Lightning Strikes, Herbivore Attacks, Mini Tornados. , 9.3.8 Zonal Retreat: Local-Scale Patterns of Single, Dual and Triple Zones of Concurrent Upper Zone Dieback -- 9.4 The Synchronous, Large-Scale Mass Dieback of Mangroves in Australia´s Remote Gulf of Carpentaria -- Box. Mangrove Diversity in the Area of Mass Dieback of Mangroves -- 9.4.1 Likely Causal Factors Observed Along the Impacted Shoreline -- 9.4.2 Linking Specific Factors with the Dieback Event -- 9.4.3 Did Human-Induced Climate Change Play a Role in the 2015-2016 Dieback of Mangroves? -- 9.5 Current Recommendations for Management Strategies -- 9.6 A Regional Mitigation and Monitoring Strategy for Tidal Wetlands -- 9.7 Vulnerability of Impacted Shorelines with Key Risks and Consequences -- References -- 10: Recurrent Mass-Bleaching and the Potential for Ecosystem Collapse on Australia´s Great Barrier Reef -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Considering the Criteria for Collapse of Coral Reefs -- 10.3 Background Trends on the Great Barrier Reef -- 10.4 Climate Change and Mass Coral Bleaching -- 10.5 Is the Great Barrier Reef Collapsing? -- 10.6 Recasting Conservation Goals for Coral Reefs -- References -- 11: Sliding Toward the Collapse of Mediterranean Coastal Marine Rocky Ecosystems -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Marine Heatwaves and Mass Mortality Events in the Mediterranean -- 11.2.1 Sea Surface Thermal Stress Signals in the Cold Northern Mediterranean Areas -- 11.2.2 Subsurface Thermal Stress Signals in the Cold NW Mediterranean -- 11.2.2.1 Subsurface MHWs Amplification -- 11.3 Immediate Impacts, Sublethal Effects, and Recovery of Habitat-Forming Gorgonians from Mass Mortalities Events -- 11.3.1 Immediate Impacts and Sublethal Effects of Mass Mortality Events -- 11.3.1.1 Immediate Impacts -- 11.3.1.2 Sublethal Effects with Long-Term Consequences -- 11.3.2 Recovery Trajectories. , Box 11.1 Description of Demographic and Genetic Features of Octocorals.