Note: Intro -- Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean -- CIRCE - Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment -- Foreword -- CIRCE - Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- List of Box -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Part I: Case Studies -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1 Background to the Mediterranean Case Studies -- 1.2 Objectives -- 1.3 The Case-Studies Integrating Framework -- 1.4 Case Studies -- 1.4.1 Introduction -- 1.4.2 Urban -- 1.4.2.1 Athens (Greece) -- 1.4.2.2 Beirut (Lebanon) -- 1.4.2.3 Alexandria (Egypt) -- 1.4.3 Rural -- 1.4.3.1 Tuscany, Italy -- 1.4.3.2 Apulia, Italy -- 1.4.3.3 Tel Hadya, Syria -- 1.4.3.4 Judean Foothills, Israel -- 1.4.4 Coastal -- 1.4.4.1 Gulf of Valencia - Catalan Coast, Spain -- 1.4.4.2 Gulf of Oran, Algeria -- 1.4.4.3 Gulf of Gabès, Tunisia -- 1.4.4.4 West Nile Delta, Egypt -- References -- Chapter 2: Stakeholders -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Level of Stakeholder Involvement -- 2.3 Objectives of Stakeholder Involvement -- 2.4 Stakeholder Contribution to the Case Studies -- 2.4.1 Conceptual Framework and Indicators -- 2.4.2 Data and Knowledge -- 2.4.3 Identification of Thresholds -- 2.4.4 Risk Assessment and Management -- 2.4.5 Adaptation Strategies -- 2.4.6 Policy Recommendations -- 2.5 Barriers to Stakeholder Participation and a Good Practice Checklist -- References -- Chapter 3: Physical and Socio-economic Indicators -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Methodology -- 3.2.1 Selection Criteria -- 3.2.2 Reviewing and Refining Indicators -- 3.2.3 Assessment for Trend, Thresholds and Coping Range -- 3.2.4 Data and Methodological Challenges -- 3.2.5 Methods of Presentation -- 3.2.6 Integrated Vulnerability Assessment -- 3.3 Climate and Atmosphere Indicators -- 3.3.1 Core Climate Indicators. , 3.3.2 Additional Case-Study Specific Climate Indicators -- 3.4 Biogeophysical Indicators -- 3.4.1 Key Themes -- 3.4.1.1 Urban Case-Study Themes -- 3.4.1.2 Rural Case-Study Themes -- 3.4.1.3 Coastal Case-Study Themes -- 3.4.2 Key Challenges -- 3.5 Social Indicators -- 3.5.1 Key Themes -- 3.5.1.1 Urban Case-Study Themes -- 3.5.1.2 Rural Case-Study Themes -- 3.5.1.3 Coastal Case-Study Themes -- 3.5.2 Key Challenges -- References -- Chapter 4: Climate Impact Assessments -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Urban -- 4.2.1 Climate Related Impacts -- 4.2.2 Climate Hazards -- 4.2.3 Biogeophysical and Social Vulnerabilities -- 4.3 Rural -- 4.3.1 Climate Related Impacts -- 4.3.2 Climate Hazards -- 4.3.3 Biogeophysical and Social Vulnerabilities -- 4.4 Coastal -- 4.4.1 Climate Related Impacts -- 4.4.2 Climate Hazards -- 4.4.3 Biogeophysical and Social Vulnerabilities -- References -- Chapter 5: Integration of the Climate Impact Assessments with Future Projections -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Climate Projections -- 5.3 Biogeophysical and Socioeconomic Projections -- 5.3.1 Introduction -- 5.3.2 Key Messages on Mediterranean Changes in Biogeophysical and Socioeconomic Systems from the CIRCE Project -- 5.3.2.1 Water Resources -- 5.3.2.2 Mediterranean Agriculture, Forest and Ecosystem Services -- 5.3.2.3 Mediterranean Communities -- Economic Impacts -- Human Health and Well Being -- Energy -- Mediterranean Tourism -- 5.3.3 Specific Examples from the CIRCE Case Studies -- 5.3.3.1 Athens Urban Case Study -- Peri-Urban Fires -- Air-Pollution -- Human Health Risks -- Energy Demand -- 5.3.3.2 Gulf of Gabès Coastal Case Study -- 5.3.4 Summary and Discussion of Key Projected Changes -- 5.3.4.1 Future Changes in Biogeophysical Systems -- 5.3.4.2 Future Changes in Social Systems and Communities -- 5.3.4.3 Linking Vulnerabilities and Impacts -- 5.4 Assessment Uncertainties -- References. , Chapter 6: Synthesis and the Assessment of Adaptation Measures -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Linking Impacts and Vulnerability with Adaptation -- 6.2.1 Indicators, Thresholds, Coping Range and Adaptation -- 6.2.2 Vulnerability, Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity -- 6.3 Adaptation Measures at Local and Regional Scales -- 6.3.1 The CIRCE Stakeholder Perspective on Adaptation -- 6.3.1.1 Athens Case Study Workshop -- 6.3.1.2 Beirut Case-Study Dialogue -- 6.3.1.3 Tuscany Case-Study Stakeholder Workshop -- 6.3.1.4 Apulia Case-Study Stakeholder Workshop -- 6.3.1.5 The Judean Foothills Case-Study Stakeholder Workshop -- 6.3.1.6 The Tel Hadya Case-Study Seminars -- 6.3.1.7 Alexandria and West Nile Delta Stakeholder Workshop -- 6.3.1.8 Gulf of Gabès Case-Study Stakeholder Workshop -- 6.3.1.9 Gulf of Oran Meetings with Scientists, Civil Society and Decision Makers -- 6.3.1.10 Gulf of Valencia-Catalan Case-Study Stakeholder Workshop -- 6.3.2 Consolidating the Case-Study Information on Adaptation -- 6.3.2.1 Agriculture, Forestry and Ecosystems -- 6.3.2.2 Mediterranean Communities -- 6.3.2.3 Integrating Adaptation Options Across Scales and Sectors -- 6.4 Moving Beyond the Case Studies -- 6.4.1 Changes, Impacts and Events Outside the Case-Study Regions -- 6.4.1.1 Supply and Demand Issues (for Energy, Water, Food) -- 6.4.1.2 Global Effects on Regional Tourism -- 6.4.1.3 Migration -- 6.4.1.4 Governance Issues -- 6.4.2 Adaptation Policy -- 6.5 Conclusions: Lessons Learnt and Key Messages from the CIRCE Case Studies -- 6.6 Research Needs and Gaps -- References -- Chapter 7: Executive Summary -- Appendices -- Appendix 1: The CIRCE Case-Study Abbreviations -- Appendix 2: Key Case-Study Indicators -- Index.

Note: Intro -- Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean -- CIRCE - Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment -- Foreword -- CIRCE - Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Part I: Air, Sea and Precipitation -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- References -- Chapter 2: Past and Current Climate Changes in the Mediterranean Region -- 2.1 Atmosphere -- 2.1.1 Mediterranean Climatological Data: Station Observations and Gridded Time Series -- 2.1.1.1 Observational Station Data -- 2.1.1.2 Gridded Datasets -- 2.1.2 Quality Control and Homogenization of Station Time Series -- 2.1.3 The Mediterranean Climate - Present Knowledge -- 2.1.4 Mediterranean Climate Change in the Instrumental Period -- 2.1.5 Links Between Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Mediterranean Climate -- 2.1.6 Analysis of Climate Variations from the Pre-instrumental Period to the Past Half Millennium Using Climate Proxies -- 2.2 Ocean -- 2.2.1 General Structure of the Mediterranean Circulation -- 2.2.2 Sea Level Changes -- 2.2.3 Changes in Surface Circulation -- 2.2.4 Changes in Water Mass Characteristics -- 2.2.5 Changes in Ocean-Atmosphere Fluxes -- 2.3 Extremes in the Mediterranean Region During the Last Decades -- 2.3.1 Introduction -- 2.3.2 Extreme Temperature -- 2.3.3 Extreme Precipitation -- 2.3.4 Droughts -- 2.3.5 Extreme Ocean Wave Conditions -- 2.3.6 Extreme Sea Levels -- 2.3.7 Cyclones and Wind Storms -- 2.3.8 Cut-Off-Lows -- 2.4 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 3: Future Climate Projections -- 3.1 The CIRCE Models and Simulations -- 3.1.1 Introduction -- 3.1.2 The CIRCE Models -- 3.1.3 Mediterranean Sea Modeling Components of the CIRCE Models -- 3.1.4 Data and Model Simulations -- 3.2 Atmosphere. , 3.2.1 Simulations of the Mediterranean Climate and Future Projections -- 3.3 Ocean -- 3.3.1 Air-Sea Fluxes Evolution -- 3.3.2 Mediterranean Sea Surface Characteristics: SSS, SST -- 3.3.3 Mediterranean Sea Level Change -- 3.3.4 Evolution of the Gibraltar Strait Transport -- 3.3.5 Results in the Ocean-Alone INSTM Model -- 3.4 Extremes -- 3.4.1 Introduction -- 3.4.2 Definitions of Extreme Events -- 3.4.3 Projected Changes in Extreme Events -- 3.4.3.1 Extreme Temperatures -- 3.4.3.2 Extreme Precipitation -- 3.4.3.3 Cyclones and Wind-Storms -- 3.4.3.4 Extreme Ocean Conditions -- 3.4.3.5 Cut-Off Lows -- 3.5 An Assessment of the Uncertainties in the CIRCE Models Outputs -- 3.5.1 The Sources of Uncertainty in Coupled Climate Models -- 3.5.1.1 The Uncertainty Issue -- 3.5.1.2 The DEMETER, PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES Experiments -- 3.5.2 An ENSEMBLES Approach for the Mediterranean Area -- 3.5.3 An Uncertainty Assessment of CIRCE Scenarios in the Mediterranean Area -- 3.6 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 4: Mechanisms of Climate Variability, Air Quality and Impacts of Atmospheric Constituents in the Mediterranean Region -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Teleconnection and Local Circulation Patterns -- 4.3 Regional Patterns and Variability -- 4.4 Transport Paths of Air Pollution -- 4.4.1 Eastern Mediterranean Region -- 4.4.2 Western Mediterranean Region -- 4.4.3 Entire Mediterranean Region -- 4.5 Air Quality and Regional Climate -- 4.5.1 Black and Organic Carbon -- 4.5.2 Ozone -- 4.5.3 Aerosols -- 4.5.3.1 PM Levels -- 4.5.3.2 Dust Contribution to PM Levels and Spatio-Temporal Characteristics -- 4.5.3.3 PM Speciation -- 4.5.3.4 Aerosol Optical Properties -- 4.6 Climate Impacts -- 4.6.1 Direct Effects -- 4.6.2 Indirect Effects -- 4.7 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 5: Detection and Attribution -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Data -- 5.3 Methods. , 5.3.1 The "Regularized Optimal Fingerprint" -- 5.3.2 The "Temporal Optimal Detection" -- 5.3.3 The 'Consistency' Method -- 5.4 Temperature Change -- 5.4.1 Formal Detection -- 5.4.1.1 Annual Mean -- 5.4.1.2 Seasonal Means -- 5.4.2 Consistency Analysis -- 5.4.2.1 Is the Observed Warming Due to Natural (Internal) Variability Alone? -- 5.4.2.2 Is GS-Forcing a Plausible Explanation of the Observed Warming? -- 5.4.2.3 Is the Observed Change a Plausible Illustration of Future Expected Changes? -- 5.5 Precipitation Change -- 5.6 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 6: Summary and Major Findings -- Part II: Water -- Chapter 7: Introduction -- 7.1 Overview of Water Resources in Mediterranean Area -- 7.2 Research Questions on Bordering Scales of Investigation -- 7.3 Bridge the Scale Gaps Between Climate Models and Hydrological System Models -- References -- Chapter 8: The Hydrological Cycle of the Mediterranean -- 8.1 Long-Term Changes in Mediterranean Sea Water Cycle: Observed and Projected -- 8.1.1 Introduction -- 8.1.2 Simulated and Projected Mediterranean Water Cycle Changes -- 8.1.3 Observed Twentieth Century Changes -- 8.2 Evaluation of Atmospheric Moisture Budget for the Recent Climate Based on Super High-Resolution MRI Model -- 8.2.1 Introduction -- 8.2.2 Data and Methodology -- 8.2.2.1 The Super-High Resolution Global Climate Model (GCM) -- 8.2.2.2 The River Model -- 8.2.2.3 Study Area and Season -- 8.2.3 Results and Discussions -- 8.2.3.1 Seasonal Moisture Fields Changes over the Large Domain -- 8.2.3.2 Changes of Monthly Running Means of E, P and P-E Over the Mediterranean -- 8.2.3.3 Comparing West and East Mediterranean -- 8.2.3.4 Change of River Discharge over Mediterranean Region -- 8.2.4 Summary -- 8.3 Multi-model Changes in Evapotranspiration, Precipitation and Renewable Water Resources -- 8.3.1 Introduction -- 8.3.2 Models and Methods. , 8.3.3 Spatial Changes in Precipitation and Evapotranspiration -- 8.3.4 Hydrological Controls on Water Resource -- 8.3.5 Summary -- 8.4 Final Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 9: Impacts of Climate Change on Freshwater Bodies: Quantitative Aspects -- 9.1 General Features of Mediterranean Hydrology -- 9.1.1 Introduction -- 9.1.2 Hydrological Signatures -- 9.2 Regional Projections of River Discharge in the Mediterranean Catchment -- 9.2.1 Introduction -- 9.2.2 River Discharge Evaluation: The IRIS Tool -- 9.2.3 Results -- 9.3 From Regional Climate Simulations to the Hydrological Information Needed for Basin Scale Impact Studies -- 9.3.1 Introduction -- 9.3.2 A Scheme for the Investigation of Climate Change Impacts on Eco-hydrological Processes and Freshwater Bodies -- 9.3.3 Postprocessing of Climate Model Output for Eco-hydrological Applications: Main Variables and Correction Problems -- 9.3.4 Example Application to the Water Resources Assessment in the Apulia Region -- 9.3.4.1 The Impact Model -- 9.3.4.2 Downscaling of Meteorological Forcing -- 9.3.4.3 Model Results and Regional Water Balance Projections for the Twenty-First Century -- 9.3.5 Climate Change and Groundwater: An Impact Study on a Carbonate Aquifer in Southern Italy -- 9.3.5.1 Study Area -- 9.3.5.2 Development of a Conceptual Model of Spring Discharge -- 9.3.5.3 Hydrological Model Calibration and Validation -- 9.3.5.4 Approach to Climate Change Impact Evaluation -- 9.3.5.5 Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Spring Regime -- 9.3.5.6 Discussion -- 9.4 The Role of Dams in Reducing the Impacts of Climate Change -- 9.4.1 Introduction -- 9.4.2 An Experience in a Small Greek Catchment -- 9.4.2.1 Assessment of Optimal Dam Dimensioning Under Climate Change -- 9.4.2.2 Results -- 9.4.3 Analysis of Supply and Demand Imbalances After Supply Side Adaptation -- 9.5 Conclusions -- References. , Chapter 10: Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality -- 10.1 Impact on Lake Thermal Structure and Ecological Consequences -- 10.1.1 Introduction -- 10.1.1.1 Global Importance of Lakes as Valuable Fresh Water Resource -- 10.1.1.2 Lakes and Global Change: Passive and Active Role -- 10.1.2 The CIRCE Approach to the Climate Change Impact on Lakes -- 10.1.2.1 Study Sites -- 10.1.2.2 Diagnostic Tools -- 10.1.3 Impact of Global Warming on Two Italian South Alpine Lakes -- 10.1.3.1 Downscaling of Meteorological Forcing -- 10.1.3.2 Past, Present and Future Projections of Lake Thermal Structure -- 10.1.4 Ecological Implications of Lake Warming -- 10.2 Nutrient Loads: Simulations of River Catchments -- 10.2.1 Introduction -- 10.2.2 Data and Methodology -- 10.2.3 PCE and Scenarios Implementation -- 10.2.4 Results and Discussion -- 10.2.5 Final Remarks -- 10.3 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 11: Summary and Major Findings -- Index.