Publication Date:
2021-07-04
Description:
We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area 〈1 × 106 km2) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.
Description:
Plain Language Summary:
We examine simulations of Arctic sea ice from the latest generation of global climate models. We find that the observed evolution of Arctic sea‐ice area lies within the spread of model simulations. In particular, the latest generation of models performs better than models from previous generations at simulating the sea‐ice loss for a given amount of CO2 emissions and for a given amount of global warming. In most simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area 〈1 million km2) in September for the first time before the Year 2050.
Description:
Key Points:
CMIP6 model simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area capture the observational record in the multimodel ensemble spread.
The sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to changes in the forcing is better captured by CMIP6 models than by CMIP5 and CMIP3 models.
The majority of available CMIP6 simulations lose most September sea ice for the first time before 2050 in all scenarios.
Description:
National Science Foundation (NSF)
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
Description:
National Center for Atmospheric Research
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005323
Description:
NSF
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
Description:
CSIRO
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000943
Description:
Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program
Description:
European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme
Description:
727862 APPLICATE
Description:
Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme
Description:
Research Concile of Norway
Description:
Arctic Across Scales Project
Description:
Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000038
Description:
Fond de recherche du Qubec‐Nature et Technologies
Description:
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002789
Description:
EU Horizon 2020 OSeaIce project
Description:
German Ministry for Education and Research
Description:
H2020 MSCA IF
Description:
Regional and Global Modeling and Analysis program
Description:
NSF‐OPP
Description:
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
Description:
National Science Foundation
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
Description:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000192
Description:
Canada C150 Chair Program
Description:
NSF‐OPP
Description:
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
Description:
Canada C150 Chair Program
Description:
Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS)
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011693
Description:
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
Description:
EC | H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 Marie Skłodowska‐Curie Actions (MSCA)
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011102
Description:
F.R.S. ‐ FNRS | Fonds pour la Formation la Recherche dans l'Industrie et dans l'Agriculture (FRIA)
Description:
Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse (Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation)
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004063
Description:
Max Planck Society
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004189
Description:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000192
Description:
Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000038
Description:
NSF
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
Description:
NSF‐OPP
Description:
Research Council of Norway
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005416
Description:
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000015
Keywords:
551.41
;
sea ice
;
CMIP6
;
Arctic
;
climate models
;
model evaluation
Type:
article
Permalink
