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  • 1
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    Tropical cyclone activity in a warmer climate as simulated by a high-resolution coupled general circulation model: changes in frequency and air-sea interaction. (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This study investigates the possible changes that the greenhouse global warming might generate in the character- istics of the tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using climate scenario simulations carried out with a fully coupled high–resolution global general circulation model (INGV-SXG) with a T106 atmospheric resolution. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the XX Century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone-like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution, seasonal modulation and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TC occurrence with the large scale circulation. The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of the TC frequency when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly evident for the tropical north west Pacific (NWP) and north Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC activity seems to be associated with a reduced amount of convective instabilities. In the ATL region the weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical wind shear. Despite the generally reduced TC activity, there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the simulated cyclones. Using the new fully coupled CMCC model (CMCC_MED), with a T159 atmospheric resolution, we found a significant modulation of the Ocean Heat Transport (OHT) induced by the TC activity. Thus the possible changes that greenhouse induced global warming during 21st century might generate in the characteristics of the TC-induced OHT have been analyzed.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Wien
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: Tropical Cyclones ; Climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 2
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    The role of ocean dynamics on NAO variability under global warming conditions (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this study, two numerical simulations of the 20th Century climate performed with two global GCM are analysed, with the ultimate goal of isolating the impact of oceanic mesoscale features on the climate of the euro- mediterranean region, and its interannual variability. In the first experiment (L), a T159 atmosphere (equivalent to ∼80 Km horizontal resolution) is coupled to a 2x2- degree global ocean model, with a locally enhanced 0.5-degree resolution over the Mediterranean Sea region. In the second experiment (H), the same T159 atmosphere is coupled to a global ocean model regional high-resolution 1/16-degree (∼7 Km) ocean model for the Mediterranea Sea, which is connected to a low-resolution OGCM for the global ocean (identical to the ocean model used in L) . Thus, in H, as far as the Mediterranean area is concerned, the atmosphere is coupled to an ocean model which resolves mesoscale features (“turbulent” ocean), whereas in L the atmosphere interacts with a more “laminar” oceanic system. Since these two experiments are identical except for the resolution of the ocean model over the Mediterranean Sea , the systematic comparison of H and L will allow the assessment of the net effects on the climate of the Euro-Mediterranean region from explicitly resolving mesoscale oceanic features in the coupled model.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Zurich
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: Mediterranean Sea ; eddies ; climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 3
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    Effect ofTropicalCyclones on Ocean Heat Transport as  simulated by aHigh Resolution Coupled GCM (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This study investigates the Tropical Cyclone (TC) effect on the northern hemisphere Ocean Heat Transport (OHT) and the possible changes that greenhouse induced global warming might generate in the characteristics of the TC-induced OHT (TCiOHT). The analysis has been performed using 20C3M (20th Century) and A1B (21st Century) IPCC scenario climate simulations obtained running a fully coupled high-resolution global general circulation model named CMCC_MED. The Atmospheric model component has a T159 horizontal resolution and 31 vertical levels. The Ocean model component has a horizontal resolution ranging from 2 degrees to 0.5 degrees near the equator and 31 vertical levels. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from the simulation of the 20th Century with observations. TC detection method has been implemented thanks to the TC-MIP project. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone-like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic structure, geographical distribution and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TC activity with the large scale circulation. The TC-induced ocean cooling is well represented and the resulting column-integrated ocean heating makes the poleward OHT larger in the subtropics and decreases the poleward heat transport out of the deep tropics. This effect, investigated looking at the 100 most intense Northern Hemisphere TCs, is strongly correlated to the TC-induced momentum flux at the surface of the ocean: the winds associated to the TCs significantly weaken the trade winds in the 5-18N latitude belt and reinforce them in the 18-30N band. TCs frequency and intensity appear to be substantially stationary through the whole 1950-2069 period. The effect of the TCs on the OHT is overall less pronounced in the 21st century when compared to the 20th century.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Tucson - Arizona
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; ocean heat transport ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 4
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    Climate change projection in the Mediterranean Region as obtained from a global AOGCM coupled with an interactive high-resolution model of the Mediterranean Sea (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this work we present and discuss the results obtained from a set of present and future climate simulations performed with a high-resolution model able to represent the dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea. The ability of the model to reproduce the basic features of the observed climate in the Mediterranean region and the beneficial effects of both atmospheric improved resolution and interactive Mediterranean Sea are assessed. In particular, the major characteristics of the variability in the Mediterranean basin and its connection with the large-scale circulation are investigated. Furthermore, the mechanisms through which global warming might affect the regional features of the climate are explored, focusing especially on the characteristics of the hydrological cycle. The model used is the CMCC-MED model, developed under the framework of the EU CIRCE Project (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment), which provides, for the first time, the possibility to accurately assess the role and feedbacks of the Mediterranean Sea in the global climate system. CMCC-MED, in fact, is a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (AOGCM) coupled with a high-resolution model of the Mediterranean Sea. The atmospheric model component (ECHAM-5) has a horizontal resolution of about 80 Km, the global ocean model (OPA8.2) has horizontal resolution of about 2◦ with an equatorial refinement (0.5◦) and the Mediterranean Sea model (NEMO in the MFS implementation) has horizontal resolution of 1/16◦ (∼7 Km) and 72 vertical levels. The communication between the atmospheric model and the ocean models is performed through the OASIS3 coupler, and the exchange of SST, surface momentum, heat, and water fluxes occurs approximately every 2 hours. The global ocean-Mediterranean connection occurs through the exchange of dynamical and tracer fields via simple input/output operations. In particular, horizontal velocities, tracers and sea-level are transferred from the global ocean to the Mediterranean model through the open boundaries in the Atlantic box. Similarly, vertical profiles of temperature, salinity and horizontal velocities at Gibraltar Strait are transferred from the regional Mediterranean model to the global ocean. The ocean-to-ocean exchange occurs with a daily frequency, with the exchanged variables being averaged over the daily time-window.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Zurich
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: mediterranean region region ; climate change ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 5
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    Climate variability and change in the Euro-Mediterranean Region: results from a global AOGCM coupled with an interactive high-resolution model of the Mediterranean Sea (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this work we present and discuss the results obtained from a set of present and future climate simulations performed with a high-resolution model able to represent the dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea. The ability of the model to reproduce the basic features of the observed climate in the Mediterranean region and the beneficial effects of both atmospheric improved resolution and interactive Mediterranean Sea are assessed. In particular, the major characteristics of the variability in the Mediterranean basin and its connection with the large-scale circulation are investigated. Furthermore, the mechanisms through which global warming might affect the regional features of the climate are explored, focusing especially on the characteristics of the hydrological cycle.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Wien
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: euro-mediterranean region ; climate variability ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 6
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    EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ON OCEAN HEAT TRANSPORT AS SIMULATED BY A HIGH RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this study the interplay between Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and the Northern hemispheric Ocean Heat Transport (OHT) is investigated. In particular, results from a numerical simulation of the 20th and 21st Century climate, following the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) 20C3M and A1B scenario protocols respectively have been analyzed. The numerical simulations have been performed using a state-of-the-art global atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice coupled general circulation model - CGCM (CMCC-MED, Gualdi et al. 2010, Scoccimarro et al. 2010) with relatively high-resolution (T159) in the atmosphere. The model is an evolution of the INGV-SXG (Gualdi et al. 2008, Bellucci et al. 2008) and the ECHAM-OPA-LIM (Fogli et al. 2009, Vichi et al. 2010) The simulated TCs exhibit realistic structure, geographical distribution (Fig.2) and interannual variability, indicating that the model is able to capture the basic mechanisms linking the TC activity with the large scale circulation. The cooling of the surface ocean observed in correspondence of the TCs is well simulated by the model (Fig.3). TC activity is shown to significantly affect the poleward OHT out of the tropics, and the heat transport into the deep tropics (Fig.4). This effect, investigated by looking at the 100 most intense Northern Hemisphere TCs, is strongly correlated with the TC-induced momentum flux at the ocean surface (Fig.7). TCs frequency and intensity appear to be substantially stationary through the whole 1950-2069 simulated period as well as the effect of the TCs on the meridional OHT.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: S.Francisco. USA
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Ocean Heat Transoport ; climate models ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 7
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    EXTREME EVENTS AS REPRESENTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION CMCC CLIMATE MODELS AT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL (Euro-Mediterranean) SCALE (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: One of the conclusions of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report is that there are evidences that climate change affects the frequency, intensity, and length of many extreme events, such as floods, droughts, storms and extreme temperatures. At the same time, gradual and non-linear changes in ecosystems and natural resources further increase the consequences of extreme weather events. Climate extreme events are hard to study and even harder to predict because they are, by definition, rare and obey different statistical laws than averages. The availability of climate simulations (historical + sresA1B scenario) covering the period 1970-2100 from a global Coupled General Circulation Model (70 Km of atmospheric spatial resolution) and a Regional Climate Model (14 Km of spatial resolution) give the possibility to investigate three principal weather fields involved in extreme events conditions such as surface temperature, precipitation and wind velocity. For each of them the computation of several indicators has been done, at global and regional scale, on daily time basis over 4 seasons defined as December-February (DJF), March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), September-November (SON). These indicators characterize each model grid point over the relative spatial model domain (global/regional). For each index we computed trend maps considering only grid points where the detected trend is statistically significant. Available trend maps are defined over five periods of 30 years: 1971-2000 1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, and two periods of 65 years: 1971-2035 and 2036-2100.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Alghero, sardinia, Italy
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: extreme events ; general circulation models ; regional circulation model ; precipitation ; temperature ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 8
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    The role of Mediterranean mesoscale eddies on the climate of the Euro-Mediterranean region (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Within the CIRCE (Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment) EU Project, substantial efforts were devoted to enhance the representation of the oceanic system in the Mediterranean region. This was achieved by developing coupled general circulation models with ocean components which either explicitly resolve, or simply permit, mesoscale circulation features. The inclusion of the eddy variability tail in the spectrum of the processes resolved by the modelled system represents a particularly relevant step forward with respect to the previous CMIP3 generation of climate models , as these were systematically based on coarse resolution ocean components, leading in turn to an extremely rough representation of the Mediterranean Sea sub-system. In this study the role of mesoscale oceanic features on the air-sea interactions over the Mediterranean region was analysed, in the context of one of the CIRCE ensemble of climate models. To this aim, two different simulations of the 20th Century climate, performed with two distinct configurations of the CMCC coupled general circulation model featuring radically different horizontal resolutions in the Mediterranean Sea domain, were compared. This comparison highlights the implications deriving from the inclusion of energetic ocean mesoscale structures in the variability spectrum of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and points to the need for high-resolution ocean components in the development of next generation climate model.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Wien, Austria
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: mediterranean Sea ; eddies ; climate models ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 9
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    Decadal climate predictions with the CMCC-CM coupled OAGCM initialized with ocean analyses (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this work the effects of realistic oceanic initial conditions on a set of decadal climate predictions performed with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM), under the framework of the COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) EU Project, are investigated. The decadal predictions are performed in both retrospective (hindcast) and forecast mode. Specifically, the full set of prediction experiments consists of 3-members ensembles of 30-years simulations, start- ing at 5-years intervals from 1960 to 2005, using CMIP5 historical radiative forcing conditions (including green- house gases, aerosols and solar irradiance variability) for the 1960-2005 period, followed by RCP4.5 scenario settings for the 2005-2035 period. The ocean initial state is provided by ocean syntheses differing by assimilation methodologies and assimilated data, but obtained with the same ocean model. The use of alternative ocean anal- yses yields the required perturbation of the full three-dimensional ocean state aimed at generating the ensemble members spread. A full-value initialization technique is adopted. The predictive skill of the system is analysed at both global and regional scale as well as the processes underlying the enhanced predictability exhibited over specific regions (most notably, in the North Atlantic)
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Wien, Austria
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: decadal predictions ; ocean initialization ; climate models ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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  • 10
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    TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A WARMER CLIMATE AS SIMULATED BY A HIGH RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL:CHANGES IN FREQUENCY AND AIR-SEA INTERACTION (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This study investigates the possible changes that the greenhouse global warming might generate in the character- istics of the tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using climate scenario simulations carried out with a fully coupled high–resolution global general circulation model (INGV-SXG) with a T106 atmospheric resolution. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the XX Century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone-like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution, seasonal modulation and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TC occurrence with the large scale circulation. The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of the TC frequency when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly evident for the tropical north west Pacific (NWP) and north Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC activity seems to be associated with a reduced amount of convective instabilities. In the ATL region the weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical wind shear. Despite the generally reduced TC activity, there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the simulated cyclones. Using the new fully coupled CMCC model (CMCC_MED), with a T159 atmospheric resolution, we found a significant modulation of the Ocean Heat Transport (OHT) induced by the TC activity. Thus the possible changes that greenhouse induced global warming during 21st century might generate in the characteristics of the TC-induced OHT have been analyzed.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Wien
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; climate variability ; air-sea interaction ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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