Description: The Indian-Atlantic water exchange south of Africa (Agulhas leakage) is a key component of the global ocean circulation. No quantitative estimation of the paleo-Agulhas leakage exists. We quantify the variability in interocean exchange over the past 640,000 years, using planktic foraminiferal assemblage data from two marine sediment records to define an Agulhas leakage efficiency index. We confirm the validity of our new approach with a numerical ocean model that realistically simulates the modern Agulhas leakage changes. Our results suggest that, during the past several glacial-interglacial cycles, the Agulhas leakage varied by ~10 sverdrup and more during major climatic transitions. This lends strong credence to the hypothesis that modifications in the leakage played a key role in changing the overturning circulation to full strength mode. Our results are instrumental for validating and quantifying the contribution of the Indian-Atlantic water leakage to the global climate changes.

Description: Deep current meter data and output from two high-resolution global ocean circulation models are used to determine the prevalence and location of strong bottom currents in the greater Agulhas Current system. The two models and current meter data are remarkably consistent, showing that benthic storms, with bottom currents greater than 0.2 m s(-1), occur throughout the Agulhas retroflection region south of Africa more than 20% of the time. Furthermore, beneath the mean Agulhas Current core and the retroflection front, bottom currents exceed 0.2 m s(-1) more than 50% of the time, while away from strong surface currents, bottom currents rarely exceed 0.2 m s(-1). Implications for sediment transport are discussed and the results are compared to atmospheric storms. Benthic storms of this strength (0.2 m s(-1)) are comparable to a 9 m s(-1) (Beaufort 5) windstorm, but scaling shows that benthic storms may be less effective at lifting and transporting sediment than dust storms.

Description: Current research indicates an increase in Agulhas leakage for the past and coming decades. This change potentially alters the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, in particular, through advection of positive density anomalies into the North Atlantic. To explore the fate of Agulhas leakage, results from a Lagrangian analysis were evaluated, with virtual floats advected within an eddy-permitting ocean model (ORCA025). A considerable fraction of Agulhas leakage reached the subtropical North Atlantic: of a mean Agulhas leakage transport of 15.3 Sv entering the South Atlantic, 9.7, 7.7, and 6.1 Sv crossed sections at 6 degrees S, 6 degrees N, and 26 degrees N, respectively. The most probable transit time of leakage to reach the respective latitudes is one to two decades. We suggest that changes in Agulhas leakage could manifest in the Gulf Stream regime most probably within two decades. These results were supported by an eddy-resolving implementation of the ocean model (INALT01)

Description: Sub-Antarctic islands represent critical breeding habitats for land-based top predators that dominate Southern Ocean food webs. Reproduction and molting incur high energetic demands that are sustained at the sub-Antarctic Prince Edward Islands (PEIs) by both inshore (phytoplankton blooms; "island mass effect"; autochthonous) and offshore (allochthonous) productivity. As the relative contributions of these sustenance pathways are, in turn, affected by oceanographic conditions around the PEIs, we address the consequences of climatically driven changes in the physical environment on this island ecosystem. We show that there has been a measurable long-term shift in the carbon isotope signatures of the benthos inhabiting the shallow shelf region of the PEIs, most likely reflecting a long-term decline in enhanced phytoplankton productivity at the islands in response to a climate-driven shift in the position of the sub-Antarctic Front. Our results indicate that regional climate change has affected the balance between allochthonous and autochthonous productivity at the PEIs. Over the last three decades, inshore-feeding top predators at the islands have shown a marked decrease in their population sizes. Conversely, population sizes of off-shore-feeding predators that forage over great distances from the islands have remained stable or increased, with one exception. Population decline of predators that rely heavily on organisms inhabiting the inshore region strongly suggest changes in prey availability, which are likely driven by factors such as fisheries impacts on some prey populations and shifts in competitive interactions among predators. In addition to these local factors, our analysis indicates that changes in prey availability may also result indirectly through regional climate change effects on the islands' marine ecosystem. Most importantly, our results indicate that a fundamental shift in the balance between allochthonous and autochthonous trophic pathways within this island ecosystem may be detected throughout the food web, demonstrating that the most powerful effects of climate change on marine systems may be indirect.

Description: If unstructured meshes are refined to locally represent eddy dynamics in ocean circulation models, a practical question arises on how to vary the resolution and where to deploy the refinement. We propose to use the observed sea surface height variability as the refinement criterion. We explore the utility of this method (i) in a suite of idealized experiments simulating a wind-driven double gyre flow in a stratified circular basin and (ii) in simulations of global ocean circulation performed with FESOM. Two practical approaches of mesh refinement are compared. In the first approach the uniform refinement is confined within the areas where the observed variability exceeds a given threshold. In the second one the refinement varies linearly following the observed variability. The resolution is fixed in time. For the double gyre case it is shown that the variability obtained in a high-resolution reference run can be well captured on variable-resolution meshes if they are refined where the variability is high and additionally upstream the jet separation point. The second approach of mesh refinement proves to be more beneficial in terms of improvement downstream the midlatitude jet. Similarly, in global ocean simulations the mesh refinement based on the observed variability helps the model to simulate high variability at correct locations. The refinement also leads to a reduced bias in the upper-ocean temperature

Description: We examine the mean pathways, transit timescales, and transformation of waters flowing from the Pacific and the marginal seas through the Indian Ocean (IO) on their way toward the South Atlantic within a high-resolution ocean/sea-ice model. The model fields are analyzed from a Lagrangian perspective where water volumes are tracked as they enter the IO. The IO contributes 12.6 Sv to Agulhas leakage, which within the model is 14.1 ± 2.2 Sv, the rest originates from the South Atlantic. The Indonesian Through-flow constitutes about half of the IO contribution, is surface bound, cools and salinificates as it leaves the basin within 10–30 years. Waters entering the IO south of Australia are at intermediate depths and maintain their temperature-salinity properties as they exit the basin within 15–35 years. Of these waters, the contribution from Tasman leakage is 1.4 Sv. The rest stem from recirculation from the frontal regions of the Southern Ocean. The marginal seas export 1.0 Sv into the Atlantic within 15–40 years, and the waters cool and freshen on-route. However, the model's simulation of waters from the Gulfs of Aden and Oman are too light and hence overly influenced by upper ocean circulations. In the Cape Basin, Agulhas leakage is well mixed. On-route, temperature-salinity transformations occur predominantly in the Arabian Sea and within the greater Agulhas Current region. Overall, the IO exports at least 7.9 Sv from the Pacific to the Atlantic, thereby quantifying the strength of the upper cell of the global conveyor belt.

Description: The western boundary current system off Brazil is a key region for diagnosing variations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the southern subtropical cell. In July 2013 a mooring array was installed off the coast at 11°S similar to an array installed between 2000 and 2004 at the same location. Here we present results from two research cruises and the first 10.5 months of moored observations in comparison to the observations a decade ago. Average transports of the North Brazil Undercurrent and the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) have not changed between the observational periods. DWBC eddies that are predicted to disappear with a weakening AMOC are still present. Upper layer changes in salinity and oxygen within the last decade are consistent with an increased Agulhas leakage, while at depths water mass changes are likely related to changes in the North Atlantic as well as tropical circulation changes.

Description: Large solitary meanders are arguably the dominant mode of variability in the Agulhas Current. Observational studies have shown that these large meanders are associated with strong upwelling velocities and affect the shelf circulation for over 100 days per year. Here 10-year time series from two ocean general circulation models are used to create a composite picture of the Agulhas Current and its interactions with the shelf circulation in meandering and nonmeandering modes. Both models show good agreement with the size, propagation speed, and frequency of observed meanders. These composite meanders are then used to examine the response of shelf waters to the onset of large meanders, with the use of model output enabling the dynamics at depth to be explored. Results show a composite mean warming of up to 3°C of depth-averaged temperature along the shelf edge associated with an intrusion of the current jet onto the shelf driven by an intensification of the flow along the leading edge of large meanders. However, this intensification of flow results in cooling of bottom waters, driving cold events at the shelf break of 〈10°C at 100 m. Thus, the intensification of the current jet associated with large meander events appears to drive strong up and downwelling events across the inshore front of the Agulhas Current, facilitating shelf-slope exchange.

Description: Key Points: • A regional ocean model is used to examine multidecadal shelf temperature changes on the Agulhas Bank • There are distinct shelf temperature regime changes in 1966 and 1996 • These regime shifts are caused by changes in coastal upwelling linked to large-scale wind variability The Agulhas Bank is an important area for the spawning of small pelagic fish and other species. Here, within a NEMO ocean model, we investigate changes in temperature over the Bank on multidecadal time scales. In agreement with previous observational studies, a shift to colder temperatures is found in 1997. The model also simulates an earlier shift from colder to warmer temperatures in 1966. These shifts are coastally confined and shown, using a climatologically forced model run as a control, to be driven by a north‐south migration in the large‐scale wind belts, rather than by changes in downward heat fluxes or changes in the Agulhas Current itself. The zonal wind changes on the Agulhas Bank show a significant relationship with the Southern Annular Mode, showing some promise for future predictability of cold and warm regimes on the Agulhas Bank. Thus, while the Agulhas Current has been shown in previous work to have a large impact on intra‐annual and interannual temperature variability, this work shows that multidecadal variability in temperature on the shelf is likely to be wind forced.

Description: The North Brazil Current (NBC) constitutes a bottleneck for the mean northward return flow of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the tropical South Atlantic. Previous studies suggested a link between interannual to multidecadal NBC and AMOC transport variability and proposed to use NBC observations as an index for the AMOC. Here we use a set of hindcast, sensitivity, and perturbation experiments performed within a hierarchy of ocean general circulation models to show that decadal to multidecadal buoyancy-forced changes in the basin-scale AMOC transport indeed manifest themselves in the NBC. The relation is, however, masked by a strong interannual to decadal wind-driven gyre variability of the NBC. While questioning the NBC transport as a direct index for the AMOC, the results support its potential merit for an AMOC monitoring system, provided that the wind-driven circulation variability is properly accounted for.