Description: Identification of essential fish habitats (EFH), such as spawning habitats, is important for nature conservation, sustainable fisheries management and marine spatial planning. Two sympatric flounder (Platichthys flesus) ecotypes are present in the Baltic Sea, pelagic and demersal spawning flounder, both displaying ecological and physiological adaptations to the low-salinity environment of this young inland sea. In this study we have addressed three main research questions: 1) What environmental conditions characterize the spatial distribution and abundance of adult flounder during the spawning season? 2) What are the main factors defining the habitats of the two flounder ecotypes during the spawning season? 3) Where are the potential spawning areas of flounder? We modelled catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of flounder from gillnet surveys conducted over the southern and central Baltic Sea in the spring of 2014 and 2015 using generalized additive models. A general model included all the stations fished during the survey while two other models, one for the demersal and one for the pelagic spawning flounder, included only the stations where each flounder ecotype should dominate. The general model captured distinct ecotype-specific signals as it identified dual salinity and water depth responses. The model for the demersal spawning flounder revealed a negative relation with the abundance of round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) and a positive relation with Secchi depth and cod abundance. Vegetation and substrate did not play an important role in the choice of habitat for the demersal ecotype. The model for the pelagic spawning flounder showed a negative relation with temperature and bottom current and a positive relation with salinity. Spatial predictions of potential spawning areas of flounder showed a decrease in habitat availability for the pelagic spawning flounder over the last 20 years in the central part of the Baltic Sea, which may explain part of the observed changes in populations' biomass. We conclude that spatiotemporal modelling of habitat availability can improve our understanding of fish stock dynamics and may provide necessary biological knowledge for the development of marine spatial plans.

Description: This paper is devoted to a study on the effects of different parameterisations of vertical turbulence – with a 3D hydrodynamic model COHERENS – on the accuracy of calculated temperature and salinity fields in a hydrodynamically complex test area – the Baltic Sea, Gulf of Finland. Two algebraic parameterisations and k–ε and k-models were used. For k-model four different sets of stability functions were used. Calculated vertical profiles of temperature and salinity were compared against CTD-profiles collected during a measurement campaign in the Gulf of Finland in summer 1996. The dataset has an outstanding spatial and temporal coverage including over 300 measured CTD profiles. The thermocline depth was underestimated throughout summer by all the vertical turbulence schemes. The selection of stability functions had significant effect on the accuracy of the k-model. Generally k-model performed better when the limiting conditions for mixing length were not applied. The k-model with stability functions based on the Munk–Anderson relation without limiting condition for mixing length showed best accuracy in the calculated profiles of temperature and in the thermocline depth. The improvement of the meteorological forcing had an impact on the exactness of the calculated thermocline depth. However, sensitivity tests showed that this impact was relatively small. Generally, calculated salinity was overestimated in the surface layer and underestimated in the bottom layers. Algebraic parameterisations had highest accuracy in the vertical salinity profiles. In the eastern Gulf of Finland the calculated values of salinity were overestimated. The accuracy of initial conditions, river runoff and bathymetry had significant effect on the accuracy of calculated salinity fields. Highlights: We studied the performance of the vertical turbulence parameterisations in the modeling of hydrodynamics in the Baltic Sea. ► We compared the calculated temperature and salinity fields against dataset having outstanding temporal and spatial coverage. ► The vertical turbulence parameterisations showed considerable differences in the accuracy of the calculated temperature. ► The mixed layer depth was underestimated by all vertical turbulence schemes used in this study. ► Selection of stability functions had significant effect on the accuracy of the turbulence closure schemes.

Description: We review progress in Baltic Sea physical oceanography (including sea ice and atmosphere–land interactions) and Baltic Sea modelling, focusing on research related to BALTEX Phase II and other relevant work during the 2003–2014 period. The major advances achieved in this period are: • Meteorological databases are now available to the research community, partly as station data, with a growing number of freely available gridded datasets on decadal and centennial time scales. The free availability of meteorological datasets supports the development of more accurate forcing functions for Baltic Sea models. • In the last decade, oceanographic data have become much more accessible and new important measurement platforms, such as FerryBoxes and satellites, have provided better temporally and spatially resolved observations. • Our understanding of how large-scale atmospheric circulation affects the Baltic Sea climate, particularly in winter, has improved. Internal variability is strong illustrating the dominant stochastic behaviour of the atmosphere. • The heat and water cycles of the Baltic Sea are better understood. • The importance of surface waves in air–sea interaction is better understood, and Stokes drift and Langmuir circulation have been identified as likely playing an important role in surface water mixing in sea water. • We better understand sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics in the coastal zone where sea ice interaction between land and sea is crucial. • The Baltic Sea’s various straits and sills are of increasing interest in seeking to understand water exchange and mixing. • There has been increased research into the Baltic Sea coastal zone, particularly into upwelling, in the past decade. • Modelling of the Baltic Sea–North Sea system, including the development of coupled land–sea–atmosphere models, has improved. Despite marked progress in Baltic Sea research over the last decade, several gaps remain in our knowledge and understanding. The current understanding of salinity changes is limited, and future projections of salinity evolution are uncertain. In addition, modelling of the hydrological cycle in atmospheric climate models is severely biased. More detailed investigations of regional precipitation and evaporation patterns (including runoff), atmospheric variability, highly saline water inflows, exchange between sub-basins, circulation, and especially turbulent mixing are still needed. Furthermore, more highly resolved oceanographic models are necessary. In addition, models that incorporate more advanced carbon cycle and ecosystem descriptions and improved description of water–sediment interactions are needed. There is also a need for new climate projections and simulations with improved atmospheric and oceanographic coupled model systems. These and other research challenges are addressed by the recently formed Baltic Earth research programme, the successor of the BALTEX programme, which ended in 2013. Baltic Earth will treat anthropogenic changes and impacts together with their natural drivers. Baltic Earth will serve as a network for earth system sciences in the region, following in the BALTEX tradition but in a wider context.

Description: Throughout the last decades there has been a world-wide, general warming trend. In this study, we use the example of the Baltic Sea to resolve the overall estimated temperature trend into smaller, meso-scale spatial units. Afterwards, we investigate the spatially resolved potential impact of the temperature trend on larval survival for two important fish species, cod and sprat. We used two different sets of hydrographic data: (i) long-term temporally and depth-resolved data measured in situ originating from one geographic position and (ii) long-term horizontally resolved data, originating from a circulation model. In contrast to basin-wide integrated results, our modelling approach revealed different results related to smaller spatial scales. In shallow and coastal areas non-significant long-term temperature trends were observed. In some cases even decreasing temperature trends were found. Average distribution maps (1973–2010) of cod and sprat eggs and larvae confirmed the higher importance of central, deep basins as nursery grounds. Applying the temperature trends when calculating cod larval window of opportunity values, resulted in decreased durations of 1–3 days (~ 3–13%) in most areas. Sprat larval window of opportunity values mainly increased up to 4 days (~ 45%), indicating a potential reproduction advantage of sprat over cod under anticipated future temperature increase. Highlights ► We resolve the overall positive temperature trend in the Baltic into meso-scale spatial units and investigate the impact on larval survival for two important fish species, cod and sprat. ► In shallow and coastal areas non-significant or even negative temperature trends occurred. ► Cod larval window of opportunity values decreased by 1–3 days (~ 3–13%). ► Sprat larval window of opportunity values increased up to 4 days (~ 45%). ► Sprat will have a reproduction advantage over cod under anticipated future temperature change.

Description: Highlights: • Frequencies and pathways of deep cyclones forcing large volume changes (LVCs) and major Baltic inflows (MBIs) have been determined and analyzed. • Deep cyclones associated with LVCs and MBIs follow 4 main routes over the Baltic Sea area. • For the period 1950–2010, there is a positive trend of the number of deep cyclones associated with LVCs. Abstract: Large volume changes (LVCs) and major Baltic inflows (MBIs) are essential processes for the water exchange and renewal of the stagnant water in the Baltic Sea deep basins. These strong inflows are known to be forced by persistent westerly wind conditions. In this study, MBIs are considered as subset of LVCs transporting with the large water volume a big amount of highly saline and oxygenated water into the Baltic Sea. Since the early 1980s the frequency of MBIs has dropped drastically from 5 to 7 events to only one inflow per decade, and long lasting periods without MBIs became the usual state. Only in January 1993, 2003 and December 2014 MBIs occurred that were able to interrupt the stagnation periods in the deep basins of the Baltic Sea. However, in spite of the decreasing frequency of MBIs, there is no obvious decrease of LVCs. The Landsort sea level is known to reflect the mean sea level of the Baltic Sea very well, and hence LVCs have been calculated for the period 1887–2015 filtering daily time series of Landsort sea surface elevation anomalies. The cases with local minimum and maximum difference resulting in at least 60 km3 of water volume change excluding the volume change due to runoff have been chosen for a closer study (1948–2013) of characteristic pathways of deep cyclones. The average duration of LVCs is about 40 days. During this time, 5–6 deep cyclones move along characteristic storm tracks. Furthermore, MBIs are characterized by even higher cyclonic activity compared to average LVCs. We obtained four main routes of deep cyclones which were associated with LVCs, but also with the climatology. One is approaching from the west at about 56–60°N, passing the northern North Sea, northern Denmark, Sweden and the Island of Gotland. A second broad corridor of frequent cyclone pathways enters the study area north of Scotland between 60 and 66°N turning north-eastwards along the northern coast of Scandinavia. This branch bifurcates into smaller routes. One at about 62°N passing Oslo, southern Sweden and entering the central Baltic Sea, and another less frequent one at about 65°N, crossing Scandinavia south-eastwards passing the Sea of Bothnia and entering Finland. The conditions for LVCs to happen are temporal clustering of deep cyclones in certain trajectory corridors. We also found an increasing linear trend of the number of deep cyclones for the period 1950–2010.

Description: The closing of the water and energy cycle of the Baltic Sea is one of the main aims of BALTEX (Baltic Sea Experiment), which particularily focuses on the exploration, modelling and quantification of the various processes determining the space and time variability of the energy and water budget. On the long-term mean the water budget of the Baltic Sea is determined by river runoff, net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation) and the in- and outflows through the Baltic Sea entrance area, assuming that the mean sea level remains constant, i.e. the ability of the Baltic Sea to store a huge amount of water is averaged out over the long-term period. For shorter periods, the water storage which can be expressed by the mean sea level plays an important role on the water budget. The objective of the present study is to investigate the variability of the water storage of the Baltic Sea and relate its fluctuations to the different components of the water balance equation. The anomaly of the mean sea level of the Baltic Sea shows a well pronounced seasonal cycle, with negative values between the end of February to the end of June (minimum in the middle of May), and positive anomalies from July to mid-February (maximum in January). There is a high correlation between the mean sea level expressed by the Landsort tide gauge and the local atmospheric conditions over the Baltic Sea. The annual course of the total water balance is controlled by the local atmospheric conditions with the net fresh-water inflow only controls the general outflow conditions. Sea level, precipitation and river runoff have been obtained from observations provided by the SMHI. For the in- and outflow through the entrance area of the Baltic Sea and evaporation over the open ocean, coupled sea ice-ocean model simulations for a 10-years period have been utilized.

Description: The wind driven and thermohaline circulation of the Baltic Sea and the exchange with the North Sea are investigated by using a coupled sea ice-ocean model of the Baltic Sea. Four consecutive years, namely 1992, 1993, 1994 and 1995 including the latest major Baltic inflow in January 1993 have been simulated. Atmospheric forcing and river runoff was prescribed from SMHI data bases. Data assimilation was utilized by merging hydrographic field measurements with model data. From 6 hourly analysis data 4-year averages of the 3-dimensional current and mass field have been calculated. Some aspects regarding the mean circulation, its stability and the thermohaline circulation especially where the turnover is happening are discussed from model results analysis.

Description: A coupled ice–ocean model is utilized to investigate the transports of heat, salt and water in the Baltic Sea for the years 1986, 1988, 1993 and 1994. The oceanic component of the coupled system is a three-dimensional baroclinic model of the Baltic Sea including the Belt Sea and the Skagerrak/Kattegat area. The model has a horizontal resolution of ∼5 km and 28 vertical levels specified. The ice model is based on the Hamburg Sea Ice model, with the same horizontal resolution. The coupled system is driven by atmospheric data provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI; Norrköping, Sweden) and river runoff taken from a monthly mean runoff database. The thermohaline variability of the Baltic Sea strongly depends on the fluctuations of the atmospheric forcing conditions. Therefore, high demands on the spatial and temporal resolution of the meteorological forcing are required. Besides heat and radiation fluxes, precipitation and evaporation rates have to be taken into account. From the coupled runs, the different components determining the energy and water cycle of the Baltic Sea are identified and estimates of the water, heat and salt transports are given for the different years. Furthermore, the thermohaline variability is investigated with respect to the relevant forcing mechanisms including atmospheric, as well as fresh water fluxes. Besides the heat and water fluxes of the Baltic Sea and the water mass exchange with the North Sea, internal fluxes of heat, salt and volume between the different subbasins of the Baltic Sea are presented. Sensitivity studies on the variation of the net fresh water flux indicate that uncertainties in precipitation and/or river runoff can have a strong impact on the inflow of highly saline water from the North Sea, thus, influencing the thermohaline circulation of the Baltic Sea.

Description: A combined 3-D physical oceanographic model and a field sampling program was performed in July and August 1994 to investigate the potential drift of larval Baltic cod from the center of spawning effort in the Bornholm Basin, Baltic Sea. The goal of this exercise was to predict the drift trajectories of cod larvae in the Bornholm Basin, thereby aiding in the development of future sampling programs as well as the identification of processes influencing larval retention/dispersion in the Bornholm Basin. Distributions of variables (T, S and larval distribution) were obtained utilizing a three-dimensional eddy-resolving baroclinic model of the Baltic Sea based on the Bryan-Cox-Semtner code. Larval drift was simulated by the incorporation of a passive tracer into the model utilized to represent individual cod larvae. Additionally, simulated Lagrangian drift trajectories are presented. For model purposes, initial fields of temperature, salinity and cod larvae concentration for the Bornholm Basin were constructed by objective analysis using observations taken during a research survey in early July, 1994. Outside the Bornholm Basin generalized hydrographic features of the Baltic Sea were utilized with the baroclinic model forced by wind data for the whole Baltic taken from the Europa-Modell (EM) of the German weather service, Offenbach. Verification of simulations was performed by comparison with field measurements of hydrographic variables and ADCP derived current measurements taken during the surveys. In general, most of the hydrographic features observed during the second research cruise are correctly simulated, with variations mainly attributed to the prescribed initial conditions outside the Bornholm Basin. Results from larval sampling during the second cruise could not entirely confirm the modeled larval distributions due to the low numbers of larvae captured. However, the modeled results based on the agreement of the flow fields and hydrographic properties with observed features suggest that predictions of larval distributions can be made with a high degree of confidence if appropriate larval behaviours are included in the simulations.

Description: Highlights: • Model output indicates high connectivity between the eastern Baltic cod nursery grounds. • Variability of spatial juvenile distribution patterns affected by flow dynamics. • Trend of simulated occupied juvenile cod habitat have been declining over the last decades. • Condition of juveniles suggests density-dependence due to hypoxia-related decrease in suitable habitat. • Baltic cod recruitment indicator: habitat availability for juvenile settlement as a factor for recruitment. Abstract: In this study the drift of eastern Baltic cod larvae and juveniles spawned within the historical eastern Baltic cod spawning grounds was investigated by detailed drift model simulations for the years 1971–2010, to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of environmental suitability in the nursery areas of juvenile cod settlement. The results of the long-term model scenario runs, where juvenile cod were treated as simulated passively drifting particles, enabled us to find strong indications for long-term variations of settlement and potentially the reproduction success of the historically important eastern Baltic cod nursery grounds. Only low proportions of juveniles hatched in the Arkona Basin and in the Gotland Basin were able to settle in their respective spawning ground. Ocean currents were either unfavorable for the juveniles to reach suitable habitats or transported the juveniles to nursery grounds of neighboring subdivisions. Juveniles which hatched in the Bornholm Basin were most widely dispersed and showed the highest settlement probability, while the second highest settlement probability and horizontal dispersal was observed for juveniles originating from the Gdansk Deep. In a long-term perspective, wind-driven transport of larvae/juveniles positively affected the settlement success predominately in the Bornholm Basin and in the Bay of Gdansk. The Bornholm Basin has the potential to contribute on average 54% and the Bay of Gdansk 11% to the production of juveniles in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, transport of juveniles surviving to the age of settlement with origin in the Bornholm Basin contributed on average 13 and 11% to the total settlement in the Arkona Basin and in the Gdansk Deep, respectively. The time-series of the simulated occupied juvenile cod habitat in the Bornholm Basin and in the Gdansk Deep showed a similar declining trend as the Fulton’s K condition factor of demersal 1-group cod, which may confirm the importance of oxygen-dependent habitat availability and its effect on density dependence as a process relevant for recruitment success.