Description: Highlights: • OGCM simulations of the AMOC are highly sensitive to the subarctic freshwater forcing. • Trends in the simulated AMOC are linked to the salinity of the DSOW. • DSOW salinity trends can be traced back to the freshwater transport by the NAC. • The NAC freshwater budget is highly affected by the salinity restoring used in OGCMs. • Modifications in the subarctic precipitation can help to minimize the restoring flux. Global ocean sea-ice models with an atmospheric forcing based on bulk formulations of the air-sea fluxes exhibit spurious trends in key flow indices like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), constraining their use in investigations of multi-decadal ocean variability. To identify the critical model factors affecting the temporal evolution of the AMOC on time scales of up to 60 years, a series of experiments with both eddy-permitting (0.25°) and non-eddying (0.5°) ocean-ice models has been performed, focusing on the influence of artificial choices for the freshwater forcing, in particular the restoring of sea surface salinity towards climatological values. The atmospheric forcing builds on the proposal for Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE), utilizing the refined atmospheric reanalysis products for 1948–2006 compiled by Large and Yeager. Sensitivity experiments with small variations in precipitation (within the observational uncertainty) and sea surface salinity restoring in the subarctic Atlantic produce a wide range of AMOC transports, between upward drifts to more than 22 Sv and nearly-collapsed states with less than 7 Sv, reflecting the excessive role of the salinity feedback in such simulations. In all cases the AMOC is tightly related to the density of the Denmark Strait overflow; changes in that density are governed by the salinity in the Nordic Seas; and in turn, that salinity is strongly affected by the properties of the inflowing North Atlantic water.

Description: Highlights: • We combine high-resolution ocean models with population genetics • Variation in wind-driven ocean currents mediates the collapse of A. anguilla • Female eels are philopatric within the Sargasso Sea, while males maintain gene flow • We present first evidence of the role of ocean currents in shaping species’ evolution Summary: Worldwide, exploited marine fish stocks are under threat of collapse [1]. Although the drivers behind such collapses are diverse, it is becoming evident that failure to consider evolutionary processes in fisheries management can have drastic consequences on a species’ long-term viability [2]. The European eel (Anguilla anguilla; Linnaeus, 1758) is no exception: not only does the steep decline in recruitment observed in the 1980s [ 3 and 4] remain largely unexplained, the punctual detection of genetic structure also raises questions regarding the existence of a single panmictic population [ 5, 6 and 7]. With its extended Transatlantic dispersal, pinpointing the role of ocean dynamics is crucial to understand both the population structure and the widespread decline of this species. Hence, we combined dispersal simulations using a half century of high-resolution ocean model data with population genetics tools. We show that regional atmospherically driven ocean current variations in the Sargasso Sea were the major driver of the onset of the sharp decline in eel recruitment in the beginning of the 1980s. The simulations combined with genotyping of natural coastal eel populations furthermore suggest that unexpected evidence of coastal genetic differentiation is consistent with cryptic female philopatric behavior within the Sargasso Sea. Such results demonstrate the key constraint of the variable oceanic environment on the European eel population.

Description: Highlights: • Phase II of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) is introduced. • Solutions from CORE-II simulations from eighteen participating models are presented. • Mean states in the North Atlantic with a focus on AMOC are examined. • The North Atlantic solutions differ substantially among the models. • Many factors, including parameterization choices, contribute to these differences. Simulation characteristics from eighteen global ocean–sea-ice coupled models are presented with a focus on the mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and other related fields in the North Atlantic. These experiments use inter-annually varying atmospheric forcing data sets for the 60-year period from 1948 to 2007 and are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The protocol for conducting such CORE-II experiments is summarized. Despite using the same atmospheric forcing, the solutions show significant differences. As most models also differ from available observations, biases in the Labrador Sea region in upper-ocean potential temperature and salinity distributions, mixed layer depths, and sea-ice cover are identified as contributors to differences in AMOC. These differences in the solutions do not suggest an obvious grouping of the models based on their ocean model lineage, their vertical coordinate representations, or surface salinity restoring strengths. Thus, the solution differences among the models are attributed primarily to use of different subgrid scale parameterizations and parameter choices as well as to differences in vertical and horizontal grid resolutions in the ocean models. Use of a wide variety of sea-ice models with diverse snow and sea-ice albedo treatments also contributes to these differences. Based on the diagnostics considered, the majority of the models appear suitable for use in studies involving the North Atlantic, but some models require dedicated development effort.

Description: Highlights: • Global mean sea level simulated in interannual CORE simulations. • Regional sea level patterns simulated in interannual CORE simulations. • Theoretical foundation for analysis of global mean sea level and regional patterns. Abstract: We provide an assessment of sea level simulated in a suite of global ocean-sea ice models using the interannual CORE atmospheric state to determine surface ocean boundary buoyancy and momentum fluxes. These CORE-II simulations are compared amongst themselves as well as to observation-based estimates. We focus on the final 15 years of the simulations (1993–2007), as this is a period where the CORE-II atmospheric state is well sampled, and it allows us to compare sea level related fields to both satellite and in situ analyses. The ensemble mean of the CORE-II simulations broadly agree with various global and regional observation-based analyses during this period, though with the global mean thermosteric sea level rise biased low relative to observation-based analyses. The simulations reveal a positive trend in dynamic sea level in the west Pacific and negative trend in the east, with this trend arising from wind shifts and regional changes in upper 700 m ocean heat content. The models also exhibit a thermosteric sea level rise in the subpolar North Atlantic associated with a transition around 1995/1996 of the North Atlantic Oscillation to its negative phase, and the advection of warm subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. Sea level trends are predominantly associated with steric trends, with thermosteric effects generally far larger than halosteric effects, except in the Arctic and North Atlantic. There is a general anti-correlation between thermosteric and halosteric effects for much of the World Ocean, associated with density compensated changes.

Description: Model drift in the Labrador Sea in eddy permitting model simulations is examined using a series of configurations based on the NEMO numerical framework. There are two phases of the drift that we can identify, beginning with an initial rapid 3-year period, associated with the adjustment of the model from its initial conditions followed by an extended model drift/adjustment that continued for at least another decade. The drift controlled the model salinity in the Labrador Sea, over-riding the variability. Thus, during this initial period, similar behavior was observed between the inter-annually forced experiments as with perpetual year forcing. The results also did not depend on whether the configuration was global, or regional North Atlantic Ocean. The inclusion of an explicit sea-ice component did not seem to have a significant impact on the interior drift. Clear cut evidence for the drift having an advective nature was shown, based on two separate currents/flow regimes. We find, as expected, the representation of freshwater in the sub-polar gyre’s boundary currents important. But this study also points out another, equally important process and pathway: the input of high salinity mode water from the subtropical North Atlantic. The advective regime is dependent on the details of the model, such as the representation of the freshwater transport in the model’s East Greenland Current being very sensitive to the strength of the local sea surface salinity restoring (and the underlying field that the model is being restored to).

Description: On interannual to decadal times scales, model simulations suggest a strong relationship between anomalies in the deep water formation rate, the strength of the subpolar gyre, and the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic. Whether this is valid, can only be confirmed by continuous, long observational time series. Several measurement components are already in place, but crucial arrays to obtain time series of the meridional volume and heat transport in the subpolar North Atlantic are still missing. Here we summarize the recent developments of the deep water formation rates and the subpolar gyre transports. We discuss how existing observational components in the subpolar North Atlantic could be supplemented to provide long-term monitoring of the meridional heat and volume transport. Through a combined analysis of observations and model results the temporal and spatial scales that had to be covered with instruments are discussed, together with the key regions with the highest variability in the velocity and temperature fields.

Description: For the past 50 years it has been assumed that the principal pathway for the deep limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). However, recent observations of Lagrangian floats have shown that the DWBC is not necessarily a unique, dominant, or continuous pathway for these deep waters. A significant portion of the deep water export from the subpolar to the subtropical gyres follows a pathway through the interior of the Newfoundland and subtropical basins, which is constrained by the western boundary and the western flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The hypothesis that deep eddy-driven recirculation gyres are a mechanism for partitioning the deep limb of the AMOC into the DWBC and this interior pathway is investigated here. Eulerian and Lagrangian analyses of the output of ocean general circulation models at eddy-resolving, eddy-permitting, and non-eddy permitting resolutions are used to test this hypothesis. Eddy-driven recirculation gyres, simulated in the eddy-resolving and eddy-permitting models and similar to recirculations inferred from hydrographic data, are shown to shape the export pathways of deep water from the subpolar to the subtropical gyres.

Description: We provide an assessment of sea level simulated in a suite of global ocean-sea ice models using the interannual CORE atmospheric state to determine surface ocean boundary buoyancy and momentum fluxes. These CORE-II simulations are compared amongst themselves as well as to observation-based estimates. We focus on the final 15 years of the simulations (1993–2007), as this is a period where the CORE-II atmospheric state is well sampled, and it allows us to compare sea level related fields to both satellite and in situ analyses. The ensemble mean of the CORE-II simulations broadly agree with various global and regional observation-based analyses during this period, though with the global mean thermosteric sea level rise biased low relative to observation-based analyses. The simulations reveal a positive trend in dynamic sea level in the west Pacific and negative trend in the east, with this trend arising from wind shifts and regional changes in upper 700 m ocean heat content. The models also exhibit a thermosteric sea level rise in the subpolar North Atlantic associated with a transition around 1995/1996 of the North Atlantic Oscillation to its negative phase, and the advection of warm subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. Sea level trends are predominantly associated with steric trends, with thermosteric effects generally far larger than halosteric effects, except in the Arctic and North Atlantic. There is a general anti-correlation between thermosteric and halosteric effects for much of the World Ocean, associated with density compensated changes.