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  • American Geophysical Union  (1)
  • Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union  (1)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Climate of the Past 9 (2013): 1481-1493, doi:10.5194/cp-9-1481-2013.
    Description: We present a Bayesian model for estimating the parameters of the VS-Lite forward model of tree-ring width for a particular chronology and its local climatology. The scheme also provides information about the uncertainty of the parameter estimates, as well as the model error in representing the observed proxy time series. By inferring VS-Lite's parameters independently for synthetically generated ring-width series at several hundred sites across the United States, we show that the algorithm is skillful. We also infer optimal parameter values for modeling observed ring-width data at the same network of sites. The estimated parameter values covary in physical space, and their locations in multidimensional parameter space provide insight into the dominant climatic controls on modeled tree-ring growth at each site as well as the stability of those controls. The estimation procedure is useful for forward and inverse modeling studies using VS-Lite to quantify the full range of model uncertainty stemming from its parameterization.
    Description: This work was supported in part by an American Association of University Women Dissertation Fellowship and grants NSF ATM-0724802, NSF ATM-0902715, NSF DMS- 1204892, and NOAA NA060OAR4310115.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/zip
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 125(1),(2020): e2019JD031619, doi:10.1029/2019JD031619.
    Description: High‐resolution paleoclimate records are essential for improving our understanding of internal variability and the detection and attribution of forced climate system responses. The densely populated northeastern United States is at risk from increasing temperatures, severe droughts, and extreme precipitation, but the region has limited annual and seasonal‐resolution paleoclimate records beyond the instrumental record. Chamaecyparis thyoides, L. (B.S.P.), Atlantic white cedar, a wetland conifer found within 200 km of the Atlantic coastline of the United States, is a promising tree‐ring proxy that can fill in these data gaps. Here, we develop and analyze a new network of Atlantic white cedar tree‐ring chronologies across the northeastern United States and demonstrate that site selection is important for regional paleoclimate reconstructions. Ring width variability reflects winter through summer temperatures at inland and hydrologically stable sites in the northernmost section of the species' range. Ombrotrophic sites along the coast record hydrological signals and correlate with growing season precipitation. We demonstrate skillful regional climate field reconstructions for the last several centuries and show the increased skill from incorporating our moisture sensitive sites into broad‐scale products like the North American Drought Atlas. This comprehensive understanding of the species' climate responses leads to a tree‐ring network that provides the long‐term multivariate climate context at multidecadal and centennial time scales for the large‐scale ocean‐atmospheric processes that influence the climate of the region. We use this network to examine the covariance of temperature and drought across the New England area over the past two centuries.
    Description: This research is funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation Paleo Perspectives on Climate Change program (P2C2; AGS‐1304262 and AGS‐1501856). The authors of this paper thank the many field assistants who helped develop the northeastern AWC network. We thank the 300 Committee Land Trust, Dartmouth National Resources Trust, Orleans Conservation Trust, Marine Biological Laboratory, Trustees of Reservations, National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, The Nature Conservancy, and private land owners who allowed access to field sites.
    Description: 2020-06-13
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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