Beschreibung: The Working Group on Fisheries Benthic Impact and Trade-offs (WGFBIT) develops methods and performs assessments to evaluate benthic impact from fisheries at regional scale, while con- sidering fisheries and seabed impact trade-offs. In this report, new fishery benthic impact assessments (ToR A) are shown out for several sub- regions in (French Mediterranean, Celtic Seas). For other regions, updates of the whole assess- ment or specific steps only were presented. To further standardise the different components of the WGFBIT approach across all (sub-)re- gional assessments, a more detail overview of those components was compiled. These compo- nents were slightly different among those regions, related to variation in data availability, envi- ronmental characteristics and implementation possibilities among the (sub-)regions. In WGFBIT, assessments are sometimes based on trawl or grab data, which are sampling differ- ent components of the seafloor ecosystem and can have consequences on the created sensitivity layer. Therefore, there is looked in more detail how the sensitivity outcome (and layers) can dif- fer due to the use of benthic data gathered with different gears (grab/core, trawl or video). The preliminary comparability analyses are performed on different levels: (1) based on co-located sampling; (2) comparing sensitivity maps of the (sub-) area, based on different gears. There were differences observed in longevity distribution at locations sampled with different gears and dif- ferences in data and models lead also to differences in the sensitivity layers. The WGFBIT seafloor assessment framework is not the only way to assess benthic impacts from physical disturbance. A discussion session was held on how the future workflow on advice that ICES WGFBIT assessment contribute to, will be organized. Marine sediments harbour significant levels of biodiversity that play a key role in ecosystem functions and services such as biogeochemical cycling, carbon storage and the regulation of cli- mate. Through the removal of fauna, changes in physico-chemical nature and resuspension of sediment, bottom trawling may result in significant changes in the ecosystem functioning of shelf seas. An assumption of the current PD model is that high community biomass implies higher ecosystem functioning. However, total community biomass does not necessarily reflect changes in species and functional trait composition which play a key role in regulating ecosystem func- tions. ToR D is working on an improved understanding of the link between species functional effect traits and proxies and processes for specific ecosystem functions to improve our ability to predict the impact of fishing disturbance on benthic ecosystem functioning more accurately. Links between species traits and biogeochemical parameters and the impact of trawling on these links are being explored using multivariate ordination analyses using different fauna and bioge- ochemical datasets collected in the North Sea, Celtic Sea, Kattegat, Baltic Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. Changes due to trawling in the trajectories of species densities over time and the concurrent changes in the bioturbation and bioirrigation potential of communities are being modelled using a combination of data-driven mechanistic model and a biogeochemical model. We report on the different data analysis methods that ToR D members have developed over the last year.

Beschreibung: ICES

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: Refereed

Beschreibung: Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.