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  • 1
    Online-Ressource
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    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Ocean Science Vol. 18, No. 1 ( 2022-03-03), p. 269-293
    In: Ocean Science, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 18, No. 1 ( 2022-03-03), p. 269-293
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. Coastlines potentially harbor a large part of litter entering the oceans, such as plastic waste. The relative importance of the physical processes that influence the beaching of litter is still relatively unknown. Here, we investigate the beaching of litter by analyzing a data set of litter gathered along the Dutch North Sea coast during extensive beach cleanup efforts between the years 2014 and 2019. This data set is unique in the sense that data are gathered consistently over various years by many volunteers (a total of 14 000) on beaches that are quite similar in substrate (sandy). This makes the data set valuable to identify which environmental variables play an important role in the beaching process and to explore the variability of beach litter concentrations. We investigate this by fitting a random forest machine learning regression model to the observed litter concentrations. We find that tides play an especially important role, where an increasing tidal variability and tidal height leads to less litter found on beaches. Relatively straight and exposed coastlines appear to accumulate more litter. The regression model indicates that transport of litter through the marine environment is also important in explaining beach litter variability. By understanding which processes cause the accumulation of litter on the coast, recommendations can be given for more effective removal of litter from the marine environment, such as organizing beach cleanups during low tides at exposed coastlines. We estimate that 16 500–31 200 kg (95 % confidence interval) of litter is located along the 365 km of Dutch North Sea coastline.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1812-0792
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2022
    ZDB Id: 2183769-7
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  • 2
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    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Earth System Science Data Vol. 13, No. 1 ( 2021-01-13), p. 43-61
    In: Earth System Science Data, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 1 ( 2021-01-13), p. 43-61
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. Thermohaline staircases are associated with double-diffusive mixing. They are characterized by stepped structures consisting of mixed layers of typically tens of metres thick that are separated by much thinner interfaces. Through these interfaces enhanced diapycnal salt and heat transport take place. In this study, we present a global dataset of thermohaline staircases derived from observations of Argo profiling floats and Ice-Tethered Profilers using a novel detection algorithm. To establish the presence of thermohaline staircases, the algorithm detects subsurface mixed layers and analyses the interfaces in between. Of each detected staircase, the conservative temperature, absolute salinity, depth, and height, as well as some other properties of the mixed layers and interfaces, are computed. The algorithm is applied to 487 493 quality-controlled temperature and salinity profiles to obtain a global dataset. The performance of the algorithm is verified through an analysis of independent regional observations. The algorithm and global dataset are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4286170.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1866-3516
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2021
    ZDB Id: 2475469-9
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  • 3
    In: Ocean Science, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 15, No. 6 ( 2019-11-07), p. 1419-1437
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. The mesoscale variability in the Caribbean Sea is dominated by anticyclonic eddies that are formed in the eastern part of the basin. These anticyclones intensify on their path westward while they pass the coastal upwelling region along the Venezuelan and Colombian coast. In this study, we used a regional model to show that this westward intensification of Caribbean anticyclones is steered by the advection of cold upwelling filaments. Following the thermal wind balance, the increased horizontal density gradients result in an increase in the vertical shear of the anticyclones and in their westward intensification. To assess the impact of variations in upwelling on the anticyclones, several simulations were performed in which the northward Ekman transport (and thus the upwelling strength) is altered. As expected, stronger (weaker) upwelling is associated with stronger (weaker) offshore cooling and a stronger (weaker) westward intensification of the anticyclones. Moreover, the simulations with weaker upwelling show farther advection of the Amazon and Orinoco River plumes into the basin. As a result, in these simulations the horizontal density gradients were predominantly set by horizontal salinity gradients. The importance of the horizontal density gradients driven by temperature, which are associated with the upwelling, increased with increasing upwelling strength. The results of this study highlight that both upwelling and the advection of the river plumes affect the life cycle of mesoscale eddies in the Caribbean Sea.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1812-0792
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2019
    ZDB Id: 2183769-7
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
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    Copernicus GmbH ; 2020
    In:  Climate of the Past Vol. 16, No. 6 ( 2020-12-23), p. 2573-2597
    In: Climate of the Past, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 16, No. 6 ( 2020-12-23), p. 2573-2597
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. The early and late Eocene have both been the subject of many modelling studies, but few have focused on the middle Eocene. The latter still holds many challenges for climate modellers but is also key to understanding the events leading towards the conditions needed for Antarctic glaciation at the Eocene–Oligocene transition. Here, we present the results of CMIP5-like coupled climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1. Using a new detailed 38 Ma geography reconstruction and higher model resolution compared to most previous modelling studies and sufficiently long equilibration times, these simulations will help to further understand the middle to late Eocene climate. At realistic levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the model is able to show overall good agreement with proxy records and capture the important aspects of a warm greenhouse climate during the Eocene. With a quadrupling of pre-industrial concentrations of both CO2 and CH4 (i.e. 1120 ppm and ∼2700 ppb, respectively, or 4 × PIC; pre-industrial carbon), sea surface temperatures correspond well to the available late middle Eocene (42–38 Ma; ∼ Bartonian) proxies. Being generally cooler, the simulated climate under 2 × PIC forcing is a good analogue for that of the late Eocene (38–34 Ma; ∼ Priabonian). Terrestrial temperature proxies, although their geographical coverage is sparse, also indicate that the results presented here are in agreement with the available information. Our simulated middle to late Eocene climate has a reduced Equator-to-pole temperature gradient and a more symmetric meridional heat distribution compared to the pre-industrial reference. The collective effects of geography, vegetation, and ice account for a global average 5–7 ∘C difference between pre-industrial and 38 Ma Eocene boundary conditions, with important contributions from cloud and water vapour feedbacks. This helps to explain Eocene warmth in general, without the need for greenhouse gas levels much higher than indicated by proxy estimates (i.e. ∼500–1200 ppm CO2) or low-latitude regions becoming unreasonably warm. High-latitude warmth supports the idea of mostly ice-free polar regions, even at 2 × PIC, with Antarctica experiencing particularly warm summers. An overall wet climate is seen in the simulated Eocene climate, which has a strongly monsoonal character. Equilibrium climate sensitivity is reduced (0.62 ∘C W−1 m2; 3.21 ∘C warming between 38 Ma 2 × PIC and 4 × PIC) compared to that of the present-day climate (0.80 ∘C W−1 m2; 3.17 ∘C per CO2 doubling). While the actual warming is similar, we see mainly a higher radiative forcing from the second PIC doubling. A more detailed analysis of energy fluxes shows that the regional radiative balance is mainly responsible for sustaining a low meridional temperature gradient in the Eocene climate, as well as the polar amplification seen towards even warmer conditions. These model results may be useful to reconsider the drivers of Eocene warmth and the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) but can also be a base for more detailed comparisons to future proxy estimates.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1814-9332
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2020
    ZDB Id: 2217985-9
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
    In: Climate of the Past, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 17, No. 6 ( 2021-12-01), p. 2427-2450
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period during which atmospheric CO2 levels were similar to recent historical values (∼400 ppm). Several proxy reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene show highly reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicating an El Niño-like mean state. However, past modelling studies do not show these highly reduced gradients. Efforts to understand mid-Pliocene climate dynamics have led to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Results from the first phase (PlioMIP1) showed clear El Niño variability (albeit significantly reduced) and did not show the greatly reduced time-mean zonal SST gradient suggested by some of the proxies. In this work, we study El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, which consists of additional global coupled climate models and updated boundary conditions compared to PlioMIP1. We quantify ENSO amplitude, period, spatial structure and “flavour”, as well as the tropical Pacific annual mean state in mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial simulations. Results show a reduced ENSO amplitude in the model-ensemble mean (−24 %) with respect to the pre-industrial, with 15 out of 17 individual models showing such a reduction. Furthermore, the spectral power of this variability considerably decreases in the 3–4-year band. The spatial structure of the dominant empirical orthogonal function shows no particular change in the patterns of tropical Pacific variability in the model-ensemble mean, compared to the pre-industrial. Although the time-mean zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific decreases for 14 out of 17 models (0.2 ∘C reduction in the ensemble mean), there does not seem to be a correlation with the decrease in ENSO amplitude. The models showing the most “El Niño-like” mean state changes show a similar ENSO amplitude to that in the pre-industrial reference, while models showing more “La Niña-like” mean state changes generally show a large reduction in ENSO variability. The PlioMIP2 results show a reasonable agreement with both time-mean proxies indicating a reduced zonal SST gradient and reconstructions indicating a reduced, or similar, ENSO variability.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1814-9332
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2021
    ZDB Id: 2217985-9
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
    In: Climate of the Past, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 12, No. 8 ( 2016-08-11), p. 1635-1644
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. Studies on the palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography using numerical model simulations may be considerably dependent on the implemented geographical reconstruction. Because building the palaeogeographic datasets for these models is often a time-consuming and elaborate exercise, palaeoclimate models frequently use reconstructions in which the latest state-of-the-art plate tectonic reconstructions, palaeotopography and -bathymetry, or vegetation have not yet been incorporated. In this paper, we therefore provide a new method to efficiently generate a global geographical reconstruction for the middle-late Eocene. The generalised procedure is also reusable to create reconstructions for other time slices within the Cenozoic, suitable for palaeoclimate modelling. We use a plate-tectonic model to make global masks containing the distribution of land, continental shelves, shallow basins and deep ocean. The use of depth-age relationships for oceanic crust together with adjusted present-day topography gives a first estimate of the global geography at a chosen time frame. This estimate subsequently needs manual editing of areas where existing geological data indicate that the altimetry has changed significantly over time. Certain generic changes (e.g. lowering mountain ranges) can be made relatively easily by defining a set of masks while other features may require a more specific treatment. Since the discussion regarding many of these regions is still ongoing, it is crucial to make it easy for changes to be incorporated without having to redo the entire procedure. In this manner, a complete reconstruction can be made that suffices as a boundary condition for numerical models with a limited effort. This facilitates the interaction between experts in geology and palaeoclimate modelling, keeping reconstructions up to date and improving the consistency between different studies. Moreover, it facilitates model inter-comparison studies and sensitivity tests regarding certain geographical features as newly generated boundary conditions can more easily be incorporated in different model simulations. The workflow is presented covering a middle-late Eocene reconstruction (38 Ma), using a MatLab script and a complete set of source files that are provided in the supplementary material.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1814-9332
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2016
    ZDB Id: 2217985-9
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
    In: Climate of the Past, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 19, No. 1 ( 2023-01-09), p. 61-85
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration was approximately equal to the concentration we measure today (ca. 400 ppm). Sea surface temperature (SST) proxies indicate above-average warming over the North Atlantic in the mid-Pliocene with respect to the pre-industrial period, which may be linked to an intensified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Earlier results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) show that the ensemble simulates a stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial. However, no consistent relationship between the stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC and either the Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) or average North Atlantic SSTs has been found. In this study, we look further into the drivers and consequences of a stronger AMOC in mid-Pliocene compared to pre-industrial simulations in PlioMIP2. We find that all model simulations with a closed Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago show reduced freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. This contributes to an increase in salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic and Labrador Sea that can be linked to the stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene. To investigate the dynamics behind the ensemble's variable response of the total Atlantic OHT to the stronger AMOC, we separate the Atlantic OHT into two components associated with either the overturning circulation or the wind-driven gyre circulation. While the ensemble mean of the overturning component is increased significantly in magnitude in the mid-Pliocene, it is partly compensated by a reduction in the gyre component in the northern subtropical gyre region. This indicates that the lack of relationship between the total OHT and AMOC is due to changes in OHT by the subtropical gyre. The overturning and gyre components should therefore be considered separately to gain a more complete understanding of the OHT response to a stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC. In addition, we show that the AMOC exerts a stronger influence on North Atlantic SSTs in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial, providing a possible explanation for the improved agreement of the PlioMIP2 ensemble mean SSTs with reconstructions in the North Atlantic.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1814-9332
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2023
    ZDB Id: 2217985-9
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 8
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    Copernicus GmbH ; 2018
    In:  Earth System Dynamics Vol. 9, No. 3 ( 2018-08-30), p. 1085-1095
    In: Earth System Dynamics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 9, No. 3 ( 2018-08-30), p. 1085-1095
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. If the Paris Agreement targets are to be met, there may be very few years left for policy makers to start cutting emissions. Here we calculate by what year, at the latest, one has to take action to keep global warming below the 2 K target (relative to pre-industrial levels) at the year 2100 with a 67 % probability; we call this the point of no return (PNR). Using a novel, stochastic model of CO2 concentration and global mean surface temperature derived from the CMIP5 ensemble simulations, we find that cumulative CO2 emissions from 2015 onwards may not exceed 424 GtC and that the PNR is 2035 for the policy scenario where the share of renewable energy rises by 2 % year−1. Pushing this increase to 5 % year−1 delays the PNR until 2045. For the 1.5 K target, the carbon budget is only 198 GtC and there is no time left before starting to increase the renewable share by 2 % year−1. If the risk tolerance is tightened to 5 %, the PNR is brought forward to 2022 for the 2 K target and has been passed already for the 1.5 K target. Including substantial negative emissions towards the end of the century delays the PNR from 2035 to 2042 for the 2 K target and to 2026 for the 1.5 K target. We thus show how the PNR is impacted not only by the temperature target and the speed by which emissions are cut but also by risk tolerance, climate uncertainties and the potential for negative emissions. Sensitivity studies show that the PNR is robust with uncertainties of at most a few years.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 2190-4987
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2018
    ZDB Id: 2578793-7
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
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    Copernicus GmbH ; 2019
    In:  Earth System Dynamics Vol. 10, No. 3 ( 2019-07-15), p. 453-472
    In: Earth System Dynamics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 10, No. 3 ( 2019-07-15), p. 453-472
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a means to reduce global warming in spite of high greenhouse-gas concentrations and to lower the chance of warming-induced tipping points. However, SRM may cause economic damages and its feasibility is still uncertain. To investigate the trade-off between these (economic) gains and damages, we incorporate SRM into a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model and perform the first rigorous cost–benefit analysis of sulfate-based SRM under uncertainty, treating warming-induced climate tipping and SRM failure as stochastic elements. We find that within our model, SRM has the potential to greatly enhance future welfare and merits being taken seriously as a policy option. However, if only SRM and no CO2 abatement is used, global warming is not stabilised and will exceed 2 K. Therefore, even if successful, SRM can not replace but only complement CO2 abatement. The optimal policy combines CO2 abatement and modest SRM and succeeds in keeping global warming below 2 K.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 2190-4987
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2019
    ZDB Id: 2578793-7
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
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    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Ocean Science Vol. 17, No. 1 ( 2021-02-18), p. 335-350
    In: Ocean Science, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 17, No. 1 ( 2021-02-18), p. 335-350
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. Maud Rise polynyas (MRPs) form due to deep convection, which is caused by static instabilities of the water column. Recent studies with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) have indicated that a multidecadal varying heat accumulation in the subsurface layer occurs prior to MRP formation due to the heat transport over the Weddell Gyre. In this study, a conceptual MRP box model, forced with CESM data, is used to investigate the role of this subsurface heat accumulation in MRP formation. Cases excluding and including multidecadal varying subsurface heat and salt fluxes are considered, and multiple polynya events are only simulated in the cases where subsurface fluxes are included. The dominant frequency for MRP events in these results, approximately the frequency of the subsurface heat and salt accumulation, is still visible in cases where white noise is added to the freshwater flux. This indicates the importance and dominance of the subsurface heat accumulation in MRP formation.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1812-0792
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2021
    ZDB Id: 2183769-7
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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