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  • 1
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2017
    In:  Climate of the Past Vol. 13, No. 7 ( 2017-07-04), p. 759-778
    In: Climate of the Past, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 7 ( 2017-07-04), p. 759-778
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. The current-climate Indian monsoon is known to boost biological productivity in the Arabian Sea. This paradigm has been extensively used to reconstruct past monsoon variability from palaeo-proxies indicative of changes in surface productivity. Here, we test this paradigm by simulating changes in marine primary productivity for eight contrasted climates from the last glacial–interglacial cycle. We show that there is no straightforward correlation between boreal summer productivity of the Arabian Sea and summer monsoon strength across the different simulated climates. Locally, productivity is fuelled by nutrient supply driven by Ekman dynamics. Upward transport of nutrients is modulated by a combination of alongshore wind stress intensity, which drives coastal upwelling, and by a positive wind stress curl to the west of the jet axis resulting in upward Ekman pumping. To the east of the jet axis there is however a strong downward Ekman pumping due to a negative wind stress curl. Consequently, changes in coastal alongshore stress and/or curl depend on both the jet intensity and position. The jet position is constrained by the Indian summer monsoon pattern, which in turn is influenced by the astronomical parameters and the ice sheet cover. The astronomical parameters are indeed shown to impact wind stress intensity in the Arabian Sea through large-scale changes in the meridional gradient of upper-tropospheric temperature. However, both the astronomical parameters and the ice sheets affect the pattern of wind stress curl through the position of the sea level depression barycentre over the monsoon region (20–150° W, 30° S–60° N). The combined changes in monsoon intensity and pattern lead to some higher glacial productivity during the summer season, in agreement with some palaeo-productivity reconstructions.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1814-9332
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2017
    ZDB Id: 2217985-9
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2019
    In:  Climate of the Past Vol. 15, No. 3 ( 2019-06-13), p. 997-1024
    In: Climate of the Past, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 15, No. 3 ( 2019-06-13), p. 997-1024
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. We present the first simulation of the last 6000 years with a version of the IPSL Earth system model that includes interactive dynamical vegetation and carbon cycle. It is discussed in the light of a set of Mid-Holocene and preindustrial simulations performed to set up the model version and to initialize the dynamical vegetation. These sensitivity experiments remind us that model quality or realism is not only a function of model parameterizations and tunings but also of experimental setup. The transient simulations shows that the long-term trends in temperature and precipitation have a similar shape to the insolation forcing, except at the Equator, at high latitudes, and south of 40∘ S. In these regions cloud cover, sea ice, snow, or ocean heat content feedbacks lead to smaller or opposite temperature responses. The long-term trend in tree line in the Northern Hemisphere is reproduced and starts earlier than the southward shift in vegetation over the Sahel. Despite little change in forest cover over Eurasia, a long-term change in forest composition is simulated, including large centennial variability. The rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 in the last centuries of the simulation enhances tree growth and counteracts the long-term trends induced by Holocene insolation in the Northern Hemisphere and amplifies it in the Southern Hemisphere. We also highlight some limits in the evaluation of such a simulation resulting from model climate–vegetation biases, the difficulty of fully assessing the result for preindustrial or modern conditions that are affected by land use, and the possibility of multi-vegetation states under modern conditions.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1814-9332
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2019
    ZDB Id: 2217985-9
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 7 ( 2020-07-08), p. 3011-3053
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. Based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)-generation previous Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) Earth system model, we designed a new version, IPSL-CM5A2, aiming at running multi-millennial simulations typical of deep-time paleoclimate studies. Three priorities were followed during the setup of the model: (1) improving the overall model computing performance, (2) overcoming a persistent cold bias depicted in the previous model generation and (3) making the model able to handle the specific continental configurations of the geological past. These developments include the integration of hybrid parallelization Message Passing Interface – Open Multi-Processing (MPI-OpenMP) in the atmospheric model of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMDZ), the use of a new library to perform parallel asynchronous input/output by using computing cores as “I/O servers” and the use of a parallel coupling library between the ocean and the atmospheric components. The model, which runs with an atmospheric resolution of 3.75∘×1.875∘ and 2 to 0.5∘ in the ocean, can now simulate ∼100 years per day, opening new possibilities towards the production of multi-millennial simulations with a full Earth system model. The tuning strategy employed to overcome a persistent cold bias is detailed. The confrontation of a historical simulation to climatological observations shows overall improved ocean meridional overturning circulation, marine productivity and latitudinal position of zonal wind patterns. We also present the numerous steps required to run IPSL-CM5A2 for deep-time paleoclimates through a preliminary case study for the Cretaceous. Namely, specific work on the ocean model grid was required to run the model for specific continental configurations in which continents are relocated according to past paleogeographic reconstructions. By briefly discussing the spin-up of such a simulation, we elaborate on the requirements and challenges awaiting paleoclimate modeling in the next years, namely finding the best trade-off between the level of description of the processes and the computing cost on supercomputers.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2020
    ZDB Id: 2456725-5
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 11, No. 3 ( 2018-03-16), p. 1033-1057
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. This paper is the first of a series of four GMD papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) – Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016).The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21 000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127 000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2018
    ZDB Id: 2456725-5
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
    In: Climate of the Past, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 17, No. 1 ( 2021-01-11), p. 63-94
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1814-9332
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2021
    ZDB Id: 2217985-9
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
    In: Climate of the Past, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 17, No. 1 ( 2021-01-11), p. 37-62
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×106 km2, compared to 6.46×106 km2 for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×106 km2 for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; and LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally, we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations and simulations for future climate with moderate (1 % yr−1) CO2 increase show a relationship between LIG sea ice and sea ice simulated under CO2 increase around the years of doubling CO2. The LIG may therefore yield insight into likely 21st century Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1814-9332
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2021
    ZDB Id: 2217985-9
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 10, No. 11 ( 2017-11-07), p. 3979-4003
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land–sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2017
    ZDB Id: 2456725-5
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 8
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2019
    In:  Climate of the Past Vol. 15, No. 4 ( 2019-07-02), p. 1223-1249
    In: Climate of the Past, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 15, No. 4 ( 2019-07-02), p. 1223-1249
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. The mid-Holocene period (MH) has long been an ideal target for the validation of general circulation model (GCM) results against reconstructions gathered in global datasets. These studies aim to test GCM sensitivity, mainly to seasonal changes induced by the orbital parameters (longitude of the perihelion). Despite widespread agreement between model results and data on the MH climate, some important differences still exist. There is no consensus on the continental size (the area of the temperature anomaly) of the MH thermal climate response, which makes regional quantitative reconstruction critical to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the MH climate patterns. Here, we compare the annual and seasonal outputs from the most recent Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3) models with an updated synthesis of climate reconstruction over China, including, for the first time, a seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation. Our results indicate that the main discrepancies between model and data for the MH climate are the annual and winter mean temperature. A warmer-than-present climate condition is derived from pollen data for both annual mean temperature (∼0.7 K on average) and winter mean temperature (∼1 K on average), while most of the models provide both colder-than-present annual and winter mean temperature and a relatively warmer summer, showing a linear response driven by the seasonal forcing. By conducting simulations in BIOME4 and CESM, we show that surface processes are the key factors creating the uncertainties between models and data. These results pinpoint the crucial importance of including the non-linear responses of the surface water and energy balance to vegetation changes.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1814-9332
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2019
    ZDB Id: 2217985-9
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Climate of the Past Vol. 18, No. 3 ( 2022-03-31), p. 607-629
    In: Climate of the Past, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 18, No. 3 ( 2022-03-31), p. 607-629
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. The Last Interglacial period (129–116 ka) is characterised by a strong orbital forcing which leads to a different seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation compared to the pre-industrial period. In particular, these changes amplify the seasonality of the insolation in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we investigate the Arctic climate response to this forcing by comparing the CMIP6 lig127k and piControl simulations performed with the IPSL-CM6A-LR (the global climate model developed at Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace) model. Using an energy budget framework, we analyse the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and continents. In summer, the insolation anomaly reaches its maximum and causes a rise in near-surface air temperature of 3.1 ∘C over the Arctic region. This warming is primarily due to a strong positive anomaly of surface downwelling shortwave radiation over continental surfaces, followed by large heat transfer from the continents to the atmosphere. The surface layers of the Arctic Ocean also receive more energy but in smaller quantity than the continents due to a cloud negative feedback. Furthermore, while heat exchange from the continental surfaces towards the atmosphere is strengthened, the ocean absorbs and stores the heat excess due to a decline in sea ice cover. However, the maximum near-surface air temperature anomaly does not peak in summer like insolation but occurs in autumn with a temperature increase of 4.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial period. This strong warming is driven by a positive anomaly of longwave radiation over the Arctic Ocean enhanced by a positive cloud feedback. It is also favoured by the summer and autumn Arctic sea ice retreat (-1.9×106 and -3.4×106 km2, respectively), which exposes the warm oceanic surface and thus allows oceanic heat storage and release of water vapour in summer. This study highlights the crucial role of sea ice cover variations, Arctic Ocean, as well as changes in polar cloud optical properties on the Last Interglacial Arctic warming.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1814-9332
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2022
    ZDB Id: 2217985-9
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
    In: Climate of the Past, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 16, No. 5 ( 2020-10-01), p. 1847-1872
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a palaeoclimate entry card for the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component of the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) – hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the Northern Hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of −0.3 K, which is −0.2 K cooler than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe, and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on the hydrological cycle, feedback strength, and potentially climate sensitivity.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1814-9332
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2020
    ZDB Id: 2217985-9
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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