Description: Nitrogen (N2) fixation is a major source of bioavailable nitrogen to the euphotic zone, thereby exerting an important control on ocean biogeochemical cycling. This paper presents the incorporation of prognostic N2 fixers into the HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model (HAMOCC), a component of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM). Growth dynamics of N2 fixers in the model are based on physiological characteristics of the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium. The applied temperature dependency confines diazotrophic growth and N2 fixation to the tropical and subtropical ocean roughly between 40°S and 40°N. Simulated large‐scale spatial patterns compare well with observations, and the global N2 fixation rate of 135.6 Tg N yr−1 is within the range of current estimates. The vertical distribution of N2 fixation also matches well the observations, with a major fraction of about 85% occurring in the upper 20 m. The observed seasonal variability at the stations BATS and ALOHA is reasonably reproduced, with highest fixation rates in northern summer/fall. Iron limitation was found to be an important factor in controlling the simulated distribution of N2 fixation, especially in the Pacific Ocean. The new model component considerably improves the representation of present‐day N2 fixation in HAMOCC. It provides the basis for further studies on the role of diazotrophs in global biogeochemical cycles, as well as on the response of N2 fixation to changing environmental conditions.

Description: We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI‐ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50–65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI‐ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

Description: A new release of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) is presented. The development focused on correcting errors in and improving the physical processes representation, as well as improving the computational performance, versatility, and overall user friendliness. In addition to new radiation and aerosol parameterizations of the atmosphere, several relatively large, but partly compensating, coding errors in the model's cloud, convection, and turbulence parameterizations were corrected. The representation of land processes was refined by introducing a multilayer soil hydrology scheme, extending the land biogeochemistry to include the nitrogen cycle, replacing the soil and litter decomposition model and improving the representation of wildfires. The ocean biogeochemistry now represents cyanobacteria prognostically in order to capture the response of nitrogen fixation to changing climate conditions and further includes improved detritus settling and numerous other refinements. As something new, in addition to limiting drift and minimizing certain biases, the instrumental record warming was explicitly taken into account during the tuning process. To this end, a very high climate sensitivity of around 7 K caused by low-level clouds in the tropics as found in an intermediate model version was addressed, as it was not deemed possible to match observed warming otherwise. As a result, the model has a climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 over preindustrial conditions of 2.77 K, maintaining the previously identified highly nonlinear global mean response to increasing CO2 forcing, which nonetheless can be represented by a simple two-layer model.

Description: Accurately predicting future ocean acidification (OA) conditions is crucial for advancing OA research at regional and global scales, and guiding society's mitigation and adaptation efforts. This study presents a new model-data fusion product covering 10 global surface OA indicators based on 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), along with three recent observational ocean carbon data products. The indicators include fugacity of carbon dioxide, pH on total scale, total hydrogen ion content, free hydrogen ion content, carbonate ion content, aragonite saturation state, calcite saturation state, Revelle Factor, total dissolved inorganic carbon content, and total alkalinity content. The evolution of these OA indicators is presented on a global surface ocean 1° × 1° grid as decadal averages every 10 years from preindustrial conditions (1750), through historical conditions (1850–2010), and to five future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2020–2100): SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. These OA trajectories represent an improvement over previous OA data products with respect to data quantity, spatial and temporal coverage, diversity of the underlying data and model simulations, and the provided SSPs. The generated data product offers a state-of-the-art research and management tool for the 21st century under the combined stressors of global climate change and ocean acidification. The gridded data product is available in NetCDF at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/ncei/ocads/metadata/0259391.html, and global maps of these indicators are available in jpeg at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/ocean-carbon-acidification-data-system/synthesis/surface-oa-indicators.html. Key Points: - This study presents the evolution of 10 ocean acidification (OA) indicators in the global surface ocean from 1750 to 2100 - By leveraging 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) and the latest observational data, it represents a significant advancement in OA projections - This inter-model comparison effort showcases the overall agreements among different ESMs in projecting surface ocean carbon variables

Description: Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020–2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate. Key Points: - Lockdown restrictions during COVID-19 have reduced emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases - 12 CMIP6 Earth system models have performed coordinated experiments to assess the impact of this on climate - Aerosol amounts are reduced over southern and eastern Asia but there is no detectable change in annually averaged temperature or precipitation

Description: This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985-2018, using a combination of models and observation-based products. The mean sea-air CO2 flux from 1985 to 2018 is -1.6 +/- 0.2 PgC yr(-1) based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO(2) (pCO(2) products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, which is estimated at -2.1 +/- 0.3 PgC yr(-1) by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and -2.4 +/- 0.1 PgC yr(-1) by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65 +/- 0.3 PgC yr(-1) of terrestrially derived CO2, but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001 to 2018, the pCO2 products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of -0.61 +/- 0.12 PgC yr(-1) decade(-1), while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO2-driven trend of -0.34 +/- 0.06 and -0.41 +/- 0.03 PgC yr(-1) decade(-1), respectively. This implies a climate-forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate-driven variability exceeding the CO2-forced variability by 2-3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO2 dominates the ocean CO2 sink, while climate-driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods.