Note: Intro -- Contents -- Contributors -- Introduction -- 1 General Background -- 2 Uncertainty over Climate Change -- 3 Reasons for Particularly High Vulnerability of Africa -- 4 Expected Impacts of Climate Change on Africa -- 5 Options for Reducing Vulnerability -- 6 Structure of Book -- References -- Large Scale Features Affecting Ethiopian Rainfall -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data and Methods -- 2.1 Data -- 2.1.1 Rain Gauge Data -- 2.1.2 Other Data -- 2.2 Methods -- 3 Large Scale Features Associated with Kiremt Rainfall Anomalies -- 3.1 Upper Level Tropospheric Wind and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) -- 3.2 Stratospheric Influence - Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) -- 3.3 African Easterly Jet (AEJ) -- 3.4 Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) -- 3.5 Low Level Humidity -- 3.6 Low Level wind -- 3.7 Low Level Pressure -- 3.8 ENSO -- 3.9 Discussion on Kiremt Large Scale Features -- 4 Large Scale Features Associated with Belg Rainfall Anomalies -- 4.1 Sub-Tropical Westerly Jet (STWJ) -- 4.2 Low Level Humidity -- 4.3 Low Level Wind -- 4.4 Low Level High Pressures -- 4.5 ENSO -- 4.6 Indian Ocean Related Teleconnections -- 4.7 Discussion on Belg Season Large Scale Features -- 5 Summary and Conclusions -- References -- Ethiopian Rainfall in Climate Models -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Models, Observations and Methodologies -- 3 Ethiopian Rainfall in HadAM3 and HiGAM -- 3.1 The Geographical Distribution of Kiremt Rainfall -- 3.2 The Seasonal Cycle of Rainfall in Ethiopia -- 4 Interannual Variability of Ethiopian Rainfall -- 4.1 Kiremt Rainfall Time-Series -- 4.2 Kiremt Rainfall and Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies -- 5 Conclusions and Discussion -- References -- Extreme Rainfall Events over Southern Africa -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data and Model Details -- 2.1 Satellite-Derived and Reanalysis Data -- 2.2 Model Details. , 3 Definition and Identification of Extremes, Associated SST Anomalies and Model Experiments -- 3.1 Definition and Identification of Extremes -- 3.2 Rainfall, Pressure and SST Anomalies Associated with Extremes -- 3.3 Model Experiments -- 4 Model Experiment Results: HadAM3 -- 4.1 Rainfall Spatial Averages and Daily Rainfall Extremes -- 4.2 Pixel-by-Pixel Temporal Averages -- 4.2.1 Mean Daily Rainfall and Rainfall Variability -- 4.2.2 Large-Scale Atmospheric Associations with Daily Rainfall Means -- 5 Model Experiment Results: PRECIS -- 5.1 Rainfall Spatial Averages and Daily Rainfall Extremes -- 5.2 Pixel-by-Pixel Temporal Averages of Daily Rainfall -- 6 Conclusions -- References -- Understanding the Large Scale Driving Mechanisms of Rainfall Variability over Central Africa -- 1 Introduction/Rationale -- 2 Review of the Main Drivers of Central African Climatology -- 2.1 Convective Systems -- 2.2 The ITCZ -- 2.3 Sea Surface Temperature -- 2.4 Central African Jets -- 3 Teleconnections -- 3.1 EL Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- 3.2 Large-Scale Circulation -- 4 Methodology -- 4.1 Data Sources -- 4.2 Regions -- 4.3 Composite Analysis -- 5 Analysis of Rainfall Variability over Central Africa -- 5.1 Region B (0--6S, 18--32E) -- Rainfall Seasonal Cycle and Time Series Analysis -- 5.2 Analysis of Region B's Wet and Dry Year Composites During the Primary Rainy Season (MAM) -- 5.3 Analysis of Region B's Wet and Dry Year Composites During the Secondary Rainy Season (SON) -- 5.4 Region E (3--5--N, 15--22E and 5--7--N, 22--32E) -- Rainfall Seasonal Cycle and Time Series Analysis -- 5.5 Cause of Extreme and Deficit Rainfall During the Apr--Oct Rainy Season -- 6 Summary of Findings -- References -- Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology in Africa: Case Studies of River Basin Water Resources -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Summary of Changes to the Hydrological Cycle in Africa. , 2.1 Historical Observations -- 2.2 Future Projections -- 2.3 Uncertainty in Projected Climate Change Impacts -- 3 Case Study I: The Okavango River System -- 3.1 Hydro-Climate and Development Context -- 3.2 Hydrological Modeling Tools -- 3.3 Methodology for Climate Impacts Simulation -- 3.4 Simulated Future Climate Change -- 3.5 Summary of Results from Okavango River Case Study -- 4 Case Study II: The Mitano River Basin, Uganda -- 4.1 The Hydro-Climate and Development Context -- 4.2 Hydrological Modeling -- 4.3 Methodology for Climate Impacts Simulation -- 4.4 Simulated Future Climate Change -- 4.5 Summary of Results from Mitano River Case Study and Implications for Water -- 5 Discussion and Conclusions -- References -- Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability: Farmer Responses to Intra-seasonal Precipitation Trends in South Africa -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Climate Variability, Uncertainty and Change -- 2.1 Climate Variables: Informing Adaptation Research -- 3 Investigating Climate Variability Through Self Organising Mapping -- 3.1 Study Region Characteristics -- 4 Living with Risk and Uncertainty -- 5 Recognising Changes in Climate -- 5.1 Changing Climate Risk -- 6 Strategies in Response to Disturbance and Change -- 6.1 Changes to Farming Practices: Short-Term Coping -- 6.2 Exploiting the Spatial and Temporal Diversity of the Landscape -- 6.3 Commercialising Livelihoods Through Individual and Collective Action -- 7 Discussion -- 8 Conclusion -- References -- Climate Change and Migration: A Modelling Approach -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Climate Change Migration Modelling -- 3 Proactive Conceptual Development -- 4 Bounded Rationality -- 5 Reactive Conceptual Development -- 6 Conceptual Model Development -- 7 Translation into An Agent-Based Model -- 8 Model Validation -- 9 Conclusion -- References -- Index.