Description: Vast amounts of methane hydrates are potentially stored in sediments along the continental margins, owing their stability to low temperature – high pressure conditions. Global warming could destabilize these hydrates and cause a release of methane (CH 4) into the water column and possibly the atmosphere. Since the Arctic has and will be warmed considerably, Arctic bottom water temperatures and their future evolution projected by a climate model were analyzed. The resulting warming is spatially inhomogeneous, with the strongest impact on shallow regions affected by Atlantic inflow. Within the next 100 years, the warming affects 25% of shallow and mid-depth regions containing methane hydrates. Release of methane from melting hydrates in these areas could enhance ocean acidification and oxygen depletion in the water column. The impact of methane release on global warming, however, would not be significant within the considered time span.

Description: Formed under low temperature – high pressure conditions vast amounts of methane hydrates are considered to be locked up in sediments of continental margins including the Arctic shelf regions [1, 2]. Because the Arctic has warmed considerably during the recent decades and because climate models predict accelerated warming if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, it is debated whether shallow Arctic hydrate deposits could be destabilized in the near future [3, 4]. Methane (CH4), a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential about 25 times higher than CO2, could be released from the melting hydrates and enter the water column and atmosphere with uncertain consequences for the environment. Here we present the results of a recent comprehensive study of the future fate of Arctic methane hydrates [5]. Our multi-disciplinary analysis provides a closer look into regional developments of submarine Arctic gas hydrate deposits under future global warming scenarios and reveals where and over which time scales gas hydrates could be destabilized and affect oceanic pH, oxygen, and atmospheric methane. Arctic bottom water temperatures and their future evolution are projected by a climate model. Predicted bottom water warming is spatially inhomogeneous, with strongest impact on shallow regions affected by Atlantic inflow. Within the next 100 years, the warming affects 25% of shallow and mid-depth regions (water depth 〈 600 m) containing methane hydrates. We have quantified methane release from melting hydrates using transient models resolving the change in stability zone thickness. Due to slow heat diffusion rates, the change in stability zone thickness over the next 100 years is small and methane release limited. Even if these methane emissions were to reach the atmosphere, their climatic impact would be negligible as a climate model run confirms. However, the released methane, if dissolved into the water column, may contribute to ocean acidification and oxygen depletion in the water column. [1]Hester, K.C. and P.G. Brewer, Clathrate Hydrates in Nature. Annual Review of Marine Science, 2009. 1: p. 303-327. [2]Buffett, B.A. and D. Archer, Global inventory of methane clathrate: Sensitivity to changes in the deep ocean. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2004. 227: p. 185 - 199. [3]Reagan, M.T. and G.J. Moridis, Oceanic gas hydrate instability and dissociation under climate change scenarios. 2007. 34: p. L22709. [4]Kerr, R.A., 'Arctic Armageddon'Needs More Science, Less Hype. Science, 2010. 329: p. 620. [5]Biastoch, A., et al., Rising Artic ocean temperatures cause gas hydrate destabilization and ocean acidification. Geophysical Research Letters, 2011. 38(L08602).

Description: Highlights: • Phase II of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) is introduced. • Solutions from CORE-II simulations from eighteen participating models are presented. • Mean states in the North Atlantic with a focus on AMOC are examined. • The North Atlantic solutions differ substantially among the models. • Many factors, including parameterization choices, contribute to these differences. Simulation characteristics from eighteen global ocean–sea-ice coupled models are presented with a focus on the mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and other related fields in the North Atlantic. These experiments use inter-annually varying atmospheric forcing data sets for the 60-year period from 1948 to 2007 and are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The protocol for conducting such CORE-II experiments is summarized. Despite using the same atmospheric forcing, the solutions show significant differences. As most models also differ from available observations, biases in the Labrador Sea region in upper-ocean potential temperature and salinity distributions, mixed layer depths, and sea-ice cover are identified as contributors to differences in AMOC. These differences in the solutions do not suggest an obvious grouping of the models based on their ocean model lineage, their vertical coordinate representations, or surface salinity restoring strengths. Thus, the solution differences among the models are attributed primarily to use of different subgrid scale parameterizations and parameter choices as well as to differences in vertical and horizontal grid resolutions in the ocean models. Use of a wide variety of sea-ice models with diverse snow and sea-ice albedo treatments also contributes to these differences. Based on the diagnostics considered, the majority of the models appear suitable for use in studies involving the North Atlantic, but some models require dedicated development effort.

Description: Formed under low temperature – high pressure conditions vast amounts of methane hydrates are considered to be locked up in sediments of continental margins including the Arctic shelf regions[1-3]. Because the Arctic has warmed considerably during the recent decades and because climate models predict accelerated warming if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise [3], it is debated whether shallow Arctic hydrate deposits could be destabilized in the near future[4, 5]. Methane (CH4), a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential about 25 times higher than CO2, could be released from the melting hydrates and enter the water column and atmosphere with uncertain consequences for the environment. In a recent study, we explored Arctic bottom water temperatures and their future evolution projected by a climate model [1]. Predicted bottom water warming is spatially inhomogeneous, with strongest impact on shallow regions affected by Atlantic inflow. Within the next 100 years, the warming affects 25% of shallow and mid- depth regions (water depth 〈 600 m) containing methane hydrates. We have quantified methane release from melting hydrates using transient models resolving the change in stability zone thickness. Due to slow heat diffusion rates, the change in stability zone thickness over the next 100 years is small and methane release limited. Even if these methane emissions were to reach the atmosphere, their climatic impact would be negligible as a climate model run confirms. However, the released methane, if dissolved into the water column, may contribute to ocean acidification and oxygen depletion in the water column.