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  • 2015-2019  (3)
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  • 1
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Bonn : Universität Bonn, Institut für Geowissenschaften, Abteilung Meteorologie
    Schlagwort(e): Forschungsbericht ; Kumulus ; Muster
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (21 Seiten, 1,35 MB) , Illustrationen, Diagramme
    Sprache: Deutsch
    Anmerkung: Förderkennzeichen BMBF 01LK1507A-E , Verbundnummer 01169691 , Unterschiede zwischen dem gedruckten Dokument und der elektronischen Ressource können nicht ausgeschlossen werden
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-01-31
    Beschreibung: Five initialization and ensemble generation methods are investigated with respect to their impact on the prediction skill of the German decadal prediction system "Mittelfristige Klimaprognose" (MiKlip). Among the tested methods, three tackle aspects of model‐consistent initialization using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the filtered anomaly initialization (FAI) and the initialization method by partially coupled spin‐up (MODINI). The remaining two methods alter the ensemble generation: the ensemble dispersion filter (EDF) corrects each ensemble member with the ensemble mean during model integration. And the bred vectors (BV) perturb the climate state using the fastest growing modes. The new methods are compared against the latest MiKlip system in the low‐resolution configuration (Preop‐LR), which uses lagging the climate state by a few days for ensemble generation and nudging toward ocean and atmosphere reanalyses for initialization. Results show that the tested methods provide an added value for the prediction skill as compared to Preop‐LR in that they improve prediction skill over the eastern and central Pacific and different regions in the North Atlantic Ocean. In this respect, the EnKF and FAI show the most distinct improvements over Preop‐LR for surface temperatures and upper ocean heat content, followed by the BV, the EDF and MODINI. However, no single method exists that is superior to the others with respect to all metrics considered. In particular, all methods affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in different ways, both with respect to the basin‐wide long‐term mean and variability, and with respect to the temporal evolution at the 26° N latitude.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-07-17
    Beschreibung: We present results from the assimilation of observed oceanic 3-D temperature and salinity fields into the global coupled Max Planck Institute Earth system model with the SEIK filter from January 1996 to December 2010. Our study is part of an effort to perform and evaluate assimilation and prediction within the same coupled climate model without the use of re-analysis data. We use two assimilation setups, one where oceanic observations over the entire water column are assimilated, and one where only oceanic observations below 50 m depth are assimilated. We compare the results from both assimilations with an unconstrained control experiment. While we do not find significant improvements due to assimilation in terms of the root-mean-square error of simulated temperature, 0–700 m heat content, sea surface height (SSH), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) against observations, we find the variability in terms of correlation with observations significantly improved due to assimilation, most prominently in the tropical oceans. Improvements over the control experiment are stronger in the sub-50 m assimilation experiment and in integrated quantities (SSH, AMOC).
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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