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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Seasonality of tropical P acific decadal trends associated with the 21st century global warming hiatus
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2015
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Vol. 120, No. 10 ( 2015-10), p. 6782-6798
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 120, No. 10 ( 2015-10), p. 6782-6798
    Abstract: Tropical Pacific wind‐driven ocean circulation intensified transitioning to hiatus Decadal anomalies of SST and ocean circulation display strong seasonality Seasonality due to variations in wind stress and zonal temperature advection
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-9275 , 2169-9291
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/jgrc.v120.10
    DOI: 10.1002/2015JC010906
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016804-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161667-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094219-6
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 2
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    Autonomous seawater 〈i〉p〈/i〉CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 and pH time series from 40 surface buoys and the emergence of anthropogenic trends
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2019
    In:  Earth System Science Data Vol. 11, No. 1 ( 2019-03-26), p. 421-439
    Details
    In: Earth System Science Data, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 11, No. 1 ( 2019-03-26), p. 421-439
    Abstract: Abstract. Ship-based time series, some now approaching over 3 decades long, are critical climate records that have dramatically improved our ability to characterize natural and anthropogenic drivers of ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake and biogeochemical processes. Advancements in autonomous marine carbon sensors and technologies over the last 2 decades have led to the expansion of observations at fixed time series sites, thereby improving the capability of characterizing sub-seasonal variability in the ocean. Here, we present a data product of 40 individual autonomous moored surface ocean pCO2 (partial pressure of CO2) time series established between 2004 and 2013, 17 also include autonomous pH measurements. These time series characterize a wide range of surface ocean carbonate conditions in different oceanic (17 sites), coastal (13 sites), and coral reef (10 sites) regimes. A time of trend emergence (ToE) methodology applied to the time series that exhibit well-constrained daily to interannual variability and an estimate of decadal variability indicates that the length of sustained observations necessary to detect statistically significant anthropogenic trends varies by marine environment. The ToE estimates for seawater pCO2 and pH range from 8 to 15 years at the open ocean sites, 16 to 41 years at the coastal sites, and 9 to 22 years at the coral reef sites. Only two open ocean pCO2 time series, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Hawaii Ocean Time-series Station (WHOTS) in the subtropical North Pacific and Stratus in the South Pacific gyre, have been deployed longer than the estimated trend detection time and, for these, deseasoned monthly means show estimated anthropogenic trends of 1.9±0.3 and 1.6±0.3 µatm yr−1, respectively. In the future, it is possible that updates to this product will allow for the estimation of anthropogenic trends at more sites; however, the product currently provides a valuable tool in an accessible format for evaluating climatology and natural variability of surface ocean carbonate chemistry in a variety of regions. Data are available at https://doi.org/10.7289/V5DB8043 and https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ocads/oceans/Moorings/ndp097.html (Sutton et al., 2018).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1866-3516
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/essd-11-421-2019
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2475469-9
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  • 3
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    The Curious Case of the EL Niño That Never Happened: A Perspective from 40 Years of Progress in Climate Research and Forecasting
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 96, No. 10 ( 2015-10-01), p. 1647-1665
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, No. 10 ( 2015-10-01), p. 1647-1665
    Abstract: Forty years ago, Klaus Wyrtki of the University of Hawaii launched an “El Niño Watch” expedition to the eastern equatorial Pacific to document oceanographic changes that were expected to develop during the onset of an El Niño event in early 1975. He and his colleagues used a very simple atmospheric pressure index to predict the event and convinced the National Science Foundation and Office of Naval Research to support an expedition to the eastern Pacific on relatively short notice. An anomalous warming was detected during the first half of the expedition, but it quickly dissipated. Given the state of the art in El Niño research at the time, Wyrtki and colleagues could offer no explanation for why the initial warming failed to amplify, nor could they connect what they observed to what was happening in other parts of the basin prior to and during the expedition. With the benefit of hindsight, the authors provide a basin-scale context for what the expedition observed, elucidate the dynamical processes that gave rise to the abbreviated warming that was detected, and present retrospective forecasts of the event using modern coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamical model prediction systems. Reviewing this history highlights how early pioneers in El Niño research, despite the obstacles they faced, were able to make significant progress through bold initiatives that advanced the frontiers of our knowledge. It is also evident that, even though the scientific community today has a much deeper understanding of climate variability, more advanced observational capabilities, and sophisticated seasonal forecasting tools, skillful predictions of El Niño and its cold counterpart La Niña remain a major challenge.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00089.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 4
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    Using present-day observations to detect when anthropogenic change forces surface ocean carbonate chemistry outside preindustrial bounds
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2016
    In:  Biogeosciences Vol. 13, No. 17 ( 2016-09-13), p. 5065-5083
    Details
    In: Biogeosciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 17 ( 2016-09-13), p. 5065-5083
    Abstract: Abstract. One of the major challenges to assessing the impact of ocean acidification on marine life is detecting and interpreting long-term change in the context of natural variability. This study addresses this need through a global synthesis of monthly pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) climatologies for 12 open ocean, coastal, and coral reef locations using 3-hourly moored observations of surface seawater partial pressure of CO2 and pH collected together since as early as 2010. Mooring observations suggest open ocean subtropical and subarctic sites experience present-day surface pH and Ωarag conditions outside the bounds of preindustrial variability throughout most, if not all, of the year. In general, coastal mooring sites experience more natural variability and thus, more overlap with preindustrial conditions; however, present-day Ωarag conditions surpass biologically relevant thresholds associated with ocean acidification impacts on Mytilus californianus (Ωarag 〈 1.8) and Crassostrea gigas (Ωarag 〈 2.0) larvae in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) and Mya arenaria larvae in the Gulf of Maine (Ωarag 〈 1.6). At the most variable mooring locations in coastal systems of the CCE, subseasonal conditions approached Ωarag =  1. Global and regional models and data syntheses of ship-based observations tended to underestimate seasonal variability compared to mooring observations. Efforts such as this to characterize all patterns of pH and Ωarag variability and change at key locations are fundamental to assessing present-day biological impacts of ocean acidification, further improving experimental design to interrogate organism response under real-world conditions, and improving predictive models and vulnerability assessments seeking to quantify the broader impacts of ocean acidification.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1726-4189
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/bg-13-5065-2016
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2158181-2
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  • 5
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    PIRATA: A Sustained Observing System for Tropical Atlantic Climate Research and Forecasting
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2019
    In:  Earth and Space Science Vol. 6, No. 4 ( 2019-04), p. 577-616
    Details
    In: Earth and Space Science, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 6, No. 4 ( 2019-04), p. 577-616
    Abstract: We describe the sustained tropical Atlantic observing system PIRATA maintained through a multinational cooperative program in ocean science Major scientific results and accomplishments obtained from the last 10 years are presented The potential role of PIRATA in a future Tropical Atlantic Observing System is described
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2333-5084 , 2333-5084
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2018EA000428
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2807271-6
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  • 6
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    Influence of Westerly Wind Events stochasticity on El Niño amplitude: the case of 2014 vs. 2015
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2019
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 52, No. 12 ( 2019-6), p. 7435-7454
    Details
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 52, No. 12 ( 2019-6), p. 7435-7454
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3938-9
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 7
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    Why Has the Relationship between Indian and Pacific Ocean Decadal Variability Changed in Recent Decades?
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 30, No. 6 ( 2017-03-15), p. 1971-1983
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 30, No. 6 ( 2017-03-15), p. 1971-1983
    Abstract: Both the Indian and Pacific Oceans exhibit prominent decadal time scale variations in sea surface temperature (SST), linked dynamically via atmospheric and oceanic processes. However, the relationship between SST in these two basins underwent a dramatic transformation beginning around 1985. Prior to that, SST variations associated with the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOB) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) were positively correlated, whereas afterward they were much less clearly synchronized. Evidence is presented from both observations and coupled state-of-the-art climate models that enhanced external forcing, particularly from increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases, was the principal cause of this changed relationship. Using coupled climate model experiments, it is shown that without external forcing, the evolution of the IOB would be strongly forced by variations in the IPO. However, with strong external forcing, the dynamical linkage between the IOB and the IPO weakens so that the negative phase IPO after 2000 is unable to force a negative phase IOB-induced cooling of the Indian Ocean. This changed relationship in the IOB and IPO led to unique SST patterns in the Indo-Pacific region after 2000, which favored exceptionally strong easterly trade winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean and a pronounced global warming hiatus in the first decade of the twenty-first century.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0313.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 8
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    Zonal Propagation of Near-Surface Zonal Currents in Relation to Surface Wind Forcing in the Equatorial Indian Ocean
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography Vol. 46, No. 12 ( 2016-12), p. 3623-3638
    Details
    In: Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 46, No. 12 ( 2016-12), p. 3623-3638
    Abstract: Zonal propagation of zonal velocity along the equator in the Indian Ocean and its relationship with wind forcing are investigated with a focus on seasonal time scales using in situ observations from four acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) and an ocean reanalysis dataset. The results show that the zonal phase speed of zonal currents varies depending on season and depth in a very complicated way in relation to surface wind forcing. Surface layer zonal velocity propagates to the west in northern spring but to the east in fall in response to zonally propagating surface zonal winds, while in the pycnocline zonal phase speed is related to wind-forced ocean wave dynamics. In the western half of the analysis domain (78°–83°E), zonal phase speed in the pycnocline is eastward all year, which is attributed to the radiation of Kelvin waves forced in the western basin. In the eastern half of the domain (80°–90°E), zonal phase speed is westward at 50- to 100-m depths in northern fall, but eastward above and below, most likely due to Rossby waves generated at the eastern boundary.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0022-3670 , 1520-0485
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JPO-D-16-0157.1
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2042184-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 184162-2
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  • 9
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    Interhemispheric SST Gradient Trends in the Indian Ocean prior to and during the Recent Global Warming Hiatusa
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 29, No. 24 ( 2016-12-15), p. 9077-9095
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 29, No. 24 ( 2016-12-15), p. 9077-9095
    Abstract: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been rising for decades in the Indian Ocean in response to greenhouse gas forcing. However, this study shows that during the recent hiatus in global warming, a striking interhemispheric gradient in Indian Ocean SST trends developed around 2000, with relatively weak or little warming to the north of 10°S and accelerated warming to the south of 10°S. Evidence is presented from a wide variety of data sources showing that this interhemispheric gradient in SST trends is forced primarily by an increase of Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean induced by stronger Pacific trade winds. This increased transport led to a depression of the thermocline that facilitated SST warming, presumably through a reduction in the vertical turbulent transport of heat in the southern Indian Ocean. Surface wind changes in the Indian Ocean linked to the enhanced Walker circulation also may have contributed to thermocline depth variations and associated SST changes, with downwelling-favorable wind stress curls between 10° and 20°S and upwelling-favorable wind stress curls between the equator and 10°S. In addition, the anomalous southwesterly wind stresses off the coast of Somalia favored intensified coastal upwelling and offshore advection of upwelled water, which would have led to reduced warming of the northern Indian Ocean. Although highly uncertain, lateral heat advection associated with the ITF and surface heat fluxes may also have played a role in forming the interhemispheric SST gradient change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0130.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 10
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    Ocean Processes Affecting the Twenty-First-Century Shift in ENSO SST Variability
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 29, No. 19 ( 2016-10-01), p. 6861-6879
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 29, No. 19 ( 2016-10-01), p. 6861-6879
    Abstract: Sea surface temperature (SST) variability associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) slightly increased in the central Pacific Ocean but weakened significantly in the eastern Pacific at the beginning of twenty-first century relative to 1980–99. This decadal shift led to the greater prominence central Pacific (CP) El Niño events during the 2000s relative to the previous two decades, which were dominated by eastern Pacific (EP) events. To expand upon previous studies that have examined this shift in ENSO variability, temperature and temperature variance budgets are examined in the mixed layer of the Niño-3 (5°S–5°N, 150°–90°W) and Niño-4 (5°S–5°N, 160°E–150°W) regions from seven ocean model products spanning the period 1980–2010. This multimodel-product-based approach provides a robust assessment of dominant mechanisms that account for decadal changes in two key index regions. A temperature variance budget perspective on the role of thermocline feedbacks in the ENSO cycle based on recharge oscillator theory is also presented. As found in previous studies, thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks are the most important positive feedbacks for generating ENSO SST variance, and thermodynamic damping is the largest negative feedback for damping ENSO variance. Consistent with the shift toward more CP El Niños after 2000, thermocline feedbacks experienced a substantial reduction from 1980 to 1999 and into the 2000s, while zonal advective feedbacks were less affected. Negative feedbacks likewise weakened after 2000, particularly thermal damping in the Niño-3 region and the nonlinear sink of variance in both regions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0870.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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