Description: Controlled manipulation of environmental conditions within large enclosures in the ocean, so-called pelagic mesocosms, has become a standard method to explore potential responses of marine plankton communities to anthropogenic change. Among the challenges of interpreting mesocosm data is the often uncertain role of vertical mixing, which usually is not observed directly. To account for mixing nonetheless, two pragmatic assumptions are common: either that the water column is homogeneously mixed or that it is divided into two water bodies with a horizontal barrier inhibiting turbulent exchange. In this study, we present a model-based reanalysis of vertical turbulent diffusion in the mesocosm experiments PeECE III and KOSMOS 2013. Our diffusivity estimates indicate intermittent mixing events along with stagnating periods and yield simulated temperature and salinity profiles that are consistent with the observations. Here, we provide the respective diffusivities as a comprehensive data product in the Network Common Data Format (NetCDF). This data product will help to guide forthcoming model studies that aim at deepening our understanding of biogeochemical processes in the PeECE III and KOSMOS 2013 mesocosms, such as the CO2-related changes in marine carbon export. In addition, we make our model code available, providing an adjustable tool to simulate vertical mixing in any other pelagic mesocosm. The data product and the model code are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.905311 (Mathesius et al., 2019).

Description: Pelagic biogeochemical models (BGCMs) have matured into generic components of Earth System Models. BGCMs mimic the effects of marine biota on oceanic nutrient, carbon and oxygen cycles. They rely on parameters that are adjusted to match observed conditions. Such parameters are key to determining the models’ responses to changing environmental conditions. However, many of these parameters are difficult to constrain and constitute a major source of uncertainty in BGCM projections. Here we use, for the first time, variance-based sensitivity analyses to map BGCM parameter uncertainties onto their respective local manifestation in model entities (such as oceanic oxygen concentrations) for both contemporary climate and climate projections. The mapping effectively relates local uncertainties of projections to the uncertainty of specific parameters. Further, it identifies contemporary benchmarking regions, where the uncertainties of specific parameters manifest themselves, thereby facilitating an effective parameter refinement and a reduction of the associated uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that the parameters that are linked to uncertainties in projections may differ from those parameters that facilitate model conformity with present-day observations. In summary, we present a practical approach to the general question of where present-day model fidelity may be indicative for reliable projections.

Description: Nitrogen fixers, or diazotrophs, play a key role in the nitrogen and carbon cycle of the world oceans. Diazotrophs are capable of utilising atmospheric dinitrogen which is a competitive advantage over generally faster growing ordinary phytoplankton in nitrogen-depleted conditions in the sun-lit surface ocean. In this study we argue that additional competitive advantages must be at play in order to explain the dynamics and distribution of diazotrophs in the global oceans. Backed by growing published evidence we test the effects of preferential grazing (where zooplankton partly avoids diazotrophs) and high-affinity diazotrophic phosphorus uptake in an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity. Our results illustrate that these fundamentally different model assumptions result in a very similar match to observation-based estimates of nitrogen fixation while, at the same time, they imply very different trajectories into our warming future. The latter applies to biomass, fixation rates as well as to the ratio of the two. We conclude that a more comprehensive understanding of the competition between ordinary and diazotrophic phytoplankton will reduce uncertainties in model-based projections of the oceanic N cycle.

Description: The ecosystem of the Baltic Sea is endangered by eutrophication. This has triggered expensive international management efforts. Some of these efforts are impeded by natural processes such as nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria blooms that add bioavailable nitrogen to the already over-fertilized system and thereby enhance primary production, export of organic matter to depth, and associated oxygen consumption. Controls of cyanobacteria blooms are not comprehensively understood, and this adds to the uncertainty of model-based projections into the warming future of the Baltic Sea. Here we review our current understanding of cyanobacteria bloom dynamics. We summarize published field studies and laboratory experiments and dissect the basic principles ingrained in state-of-the-art coupled ocean–circulation biogeochemical models.

Description: Climate change is especially strong in the region of the Arctic Ocean, and will have an important impact on its thermo-haline structure. We analyze the results of a hindcast simulation of a new 3D ocean model of the Arctic and North Atlantic oceans for the period 1970–2019. We compared the time period 1970–1999 with the time period 2010–2019. The comparison showed that there is a decrease of stratification between the two periods over most of the shallow Arctic shelf seas and in the core of the Transpolar Ice Drift. Fresh water inputs to the ocean surface decline, and inputs of momentum to the ocean increase, which can explain the decrease in stratification. The comparison also showed that the mixed layer becomes deeper during winter, in response to the weakened stratification owing to increased vertical mixing. The comparison of summer mixed layer depths between the two time periods follows a deepening pattern that is less evident. Regional exceptions include the Nansen Basin and the part of the Canadian Basin bordering the Canadian Archipelago, where the mixed layer shoals. Trends of freshwater fluxes imply that the changes of haline stratification in these regions are also influenced by other processes, for example, horizontal advection of fresh water, increased mixing and changes in the underlaying water masses. Runoff increase toward the Arctic Ocean can locally decrease but also increase salinity, and has an impact on stratification which can be explained by coastal dynamics. The results emphasize the non-linear nature of Arctic Ocean dynamics.

Description: The physical processes driving the genesis of surface- and subsurface-intensified cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies originating from the coastal current system of the Mauritanian Upwelling Region are investigated using a high-resolution (~1.5 km) configuration of GFDL’s Modular Ocean Model. Estimating an energy budget for the boundary current reveals a baroclinically unstable state during its intensification phase in boreal summer and which is driving eddy generation within the near-coastal region. The mean poleward coastal flow’s interaction with the sloping topography induces enhanced anticyclonic vorticity, with potential vorticity close to zero generated in the bottom boundary layer. Flow separation at sharp topographic bends intensifies the anticyclonic vorticity, and submesoscale structures of low PV coalesce to form anticyclonic vortices. A combination of offshore Ekman transport and horizontal advection determined the amount of SACW in an anticyclonic eddy. A vortex with a relatively dense and low PV core will form an anticyclonic mode-water eddy, which will subduct along isopycnals while propagating offshore and hence be shielded from surface buoyancy forcing. Less contribution of dense SACW promotes the generation of surface anticyclonic eddies as the core is composed of a lighter water mass, which causes the eddy to stay closer to the surface and hence be exposed to surface buoyancy forcing. Simulated cyclonic eddies are formed between the rotational flow of an offshore anticyclonic vortex and a poleward flowing boundary current, with eddy potential energy being the dominant source of eddy kinetic energy. All three types of eddies play a key role in the exchange between the Mauritanian Coastal currents system and the adjacent eastern boundary shadow zone region.

Description: An increasing number of dead zoning (hypoxia) has been reported as a consequence of declining levels of dissolved oxygen in coastal oceans all over the globe. Despite substantial efforts a quantitative description of hypoxia up to a level enabling reliable predictions has not been achieved yet for most regions of societal interest. This does also apply to Eckernförde Bight (EB) situated in the Baltic Sea, Germany. The aim of this study is to dissect underlying mechanisms of hypoxia in EB, to identify key sources of uncertainties, and to explore the potential of existing monitoring programs to predict hypoxia by developing and documenting a workflow that may be applicable to other regions facing similar challenges. Our main tool is an ultra-high spatially resolved general ocean circulation model based on a code framework of proven versatility in that it has been applied to various regional and even global simulations in the past. Our model configuration features a spacial horizontal resolution of 100 m (unprecedented in the underlying framework which is used in both global and regional applications) and includes an elementary representation of the biogeochemical dynamics of dissolved oxygen. In addition, we integrate artificial “clocks” that measure the residence time of the water in EB along with timescales of (surface) ventilation. Our approach relies on an ensemble of hindcast model simulations, covering the period from 2000 to 2018, designed to cover a range of poorly known model parameters for vertical background mixing (diffusivity) and local oxygen consumption within EB. Feed-forward artificial neural networks are used to identify predictors of hypoxia deep in EB based on data at a monitoring site at the entrance of EB. Our results consistently show that the dynamics of low (hypoxic) oxygen concentrations in bottom waters deep inside EB is, to first order, determined by the following antagonistic processes: (1) the inflow of low-oxygenated water from the Kiel Bight (KB) – especially from July to October – and (2) the local ventilation of bottom waters by local (within EB) subduction and vertical mixing. Biogeochemical processes that consume oxygen locally are apparently of minor importance for the development of hypoxic events. Reverse reasoning suggests that subduction and mixing processes in EB contribute, under certain environmental conditions, to the ventilation of the KB by exporting recently ventilated waters enriched in oxygen. A detailed analysis of the 2017 fish-kill incident highlights the interplay between westerly winds importing hypoxia from KB and ventilating easterly winds which subduct oxygenated water.

Description: In late summer, massive blooms and surface scums of cyanobacteria emerge regularly in the Baltic Sea. The bacteria can produce toxins and add bioavailable nitrogen fixed from atmospheric nitrogen to an already over-fertilized system. This counteracts management efforts targeted at improving water quality. Despite their critical role, the controls on cyanobacteria blooms are not comprehensively understood yet. This limits the usability of models-based bloom forecasts and projections into our warming future. Here we add to the discussion by combining, for the first time, satellite estimates of cyanobacteria blooms with output of a high-resolution general ocean circulation model and in-situ nutrient observations. We retrace bloom origins and conditions by calculating the trajectories of respective water parcels backwards in time. In an attempt to identify drivers of bloom development, we find that blooms originate and manifest themselves predominantly offshore where conditions are more nutrient-depleted compared to more coastal environments.

Description: The isotopic composition of Si in biogenic silica (BSi), such as opal buried in the oceans' sediments, has changed over time. Paleorecords suggest that the isotopic composition, described in terms of δ30Si, was generally much lower during glacial times than today. There is consensus that this variability is attributable to differing environmental conditions at the respective time of BSi production and sedimentation. The detailed links between environmental conditions and the isotopic composition of BSi in the sediments remain, however, poorly constrained. In this study, we explore the effects of a suite of offset boundary conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) on the isotopic composition of BSi archived in sediments in an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). Our model results suggest that a change in the isotopic composition of Si supply to the glacial ocean is sufficient to explain the observed overall low(er) glacial δ30Si in BSi. All other processes explored trigger model responses of either wrong sign or magnitude or are inconsistent with a recent estimate of bottom water oxygenation in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean. Caveats, mainly associated with generic uncertainties in today's pelagic biogeochemical modules, remain.