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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 9942–9951, doi:10.1002/2015GL065948.
    Description: Extreme rainfall conditions in Australia during the 2010/2011 La Niña resulted in devastating floods claiming 35 lives, causing billions of dollars in damages, and far-reaching impacts on global climate, including a significant drop in global sea level and record terrestrial carbon uptake. Northeast Australian 2010/2011 rainfall was 84% above average, unusual even for a strong La Niña, and soil moisture conditions were unprecedented since 1950. Here we demonstrate that the warmer background state increased the likelihood of the extreme rainfall response. Using atmospheric general circulation model experiments with 2010/2011 ocean conditions with and without long-term warming, we identify the mechanisms that increase the likelihood of extreme rainfall: additional ocean warming enhanced onshore moisture transport onto Australia and ascent and precipitation over the northeast. Our results highlight the role of long-term ocean warming for modifying rain-producing atmospheric circulation conditions, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation for Australia during future La Niña events.
    Description: Australian Research Council (ARC); ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; ARC Laureate Fellowship program; Penzance and John P. Chase Memorial Endowed Funds; Ocean Climate Change Institute at WHOI
    Description: 2016-05-19
    Keywords: Ocean warming ; Precipitation;extremes ; Australia ; Attribution ; La Nina
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L20713, doi:10.1029/2012GL053322.
    Description: Characteristics of the Indian and Australian summer monsoon systems, their seasonality and interactions are examined in a variety of observational datasets and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5) climate models. In particular, it is examined whether preferred monsoon transitions between the two regions and from one year to another, that form parts of the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation, can lead to improved predictive skill. An overall improvement in simulation of seasonality for both monsoons is seen in CMIP5 over CMIP3, with most CMIP5 models correctly simulating very low rainfall rates outside of the monsoon season. The predictability resulting from each transition is quantified using a Monte Carlo technique. The transition from strong/weak Indian monsoon to strong/weak Australian monsoon shows ∼15% enhanced predictability in the observations, in estimating whether the following monsoon will be stronger/weaker than the climatology. Most models also successfully simulate this transition. However, enhanced predictability for other transitions is less clear.
    Description: This project was supported by funding from the Australian Research Council (DP110100601) and the Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. This work was also supported by an award under the Merit Allocation Scheme on the NCI National Facility at the ANU
    Description: 2013-04-26
    Keywords: Australian monsoon ; CMIP models ; Indian monsoon ; Tropospheric biennial oscillation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
    Format: text/plain
    Format: application/postscript
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 29 (2016): 6201-6221, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0694.1.
    Description: Anomalous conditions in the tropical oceans, such as those related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean dipole, have been previously blamed for extended droughts and wet periods in Australia. Yet the extent to which Australian wet and dry spells can be driven by internal atmospheric variability remains unclear. Natural variability experiments are examined to determine whether prolonged extreme wet and dry periods can arise from internal atmospheric and land variability alone. Results reveal that this is indeed the case; however, these dry and wet events are found to be less severe than in simulations incorporating coupled oceanic variability. Overall, ocean feedback processes increase the magnitude of Australian rainfall variability by about 30% and give rise to more spatially coherent rainfall impacts. Over mainland Australia, ocean interactions lead to more frequent extreme events, particularly during the rainy season. Over Tasmania, in contrast, ocean–atmosphere coupling increases mean rainfall throughout the year. While ocean variability makes Australian rainfall anomalies more severe, droughts and wet spells of duration longer than three years are equally likely to occur in both atmospheric- and ocean-driven simulations. Moreover, they are essentially indistinguishable from what one expects from a Gaussian white noise distribution. Internal atmosphere–land-driven megadroughts and megapluvials that last as long as ocean-driven events are also identified in the simulations. This suggests that oceanic variability may be less important than previously assumed for the long-term persistence of Australian rainfall anomalies. This poses a challenge to accurate prediction of long-term dry and wet spells for Australia.
    Description: This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) under ARC-DP1094784, ARC-DP-150101331, ARC-FL100100214, and funding for C.C.U. from the National Science Foundation under AGS-1602455 and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.
    Description: 2017-02-19
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Drought ; Precipitation ; Physical Meteorology and Climatology ; Climate variability ; Forecasting ; Climate prediction ; Variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Smith, N., Kessler, W. S., Cravatte, S., Sprintall, J., Wijffels, S., Cronin, M. F., Sutton, A., Serra, Y. L., Dewitte, B., Strutton, P. G., Hill, K., Sen Gupta, A., Lin, X., Takahashi, K., Chen, D., & Brunner, S. Tropical pacific observing system. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019):31, doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00031.
    Description: This paper reviews the design of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) and its governance and takes a forward look at prospective change. The initial findings of the TPOS 2020 Project embrace new strategic approaches and technologies in a user-driven design and the variable focus of the Framework for Ocean Observing. User requirements arise from climate prediction and research, climate change and the climate record, and coupled modeling and data assimilation more generally. Requirements include focus on the upper ocean and air-sea interactions, sampling of diurnal variations, finer spatial scales and emerging demands related to biogeochemistry and ecosystems. One aim is to sample a diversity of climatic regimes in addition to the equatorial zone. The status and outlook for meeting the requirements of the design are discussed. This is accomplished through integrated and complementary capabilities of networks, including satellites, moorings, profiling floats and autonomous vehicles. Emerging technologies and methods are also discussed. The outlook highlights a few new foci of the design: biogeochemistry and ecosystems, low-latitude western boundary currents and the eastern Pacific. Low latitude western boundary currents are conduits of tropical-subtropical interactions, supplying waters of mid to high latitude origin to the western equatorial Pacific and into the Indonesian Throughflow. They are an essential part of the recharge/discharge of equatorial warm water volume at interannual timescales and play crucial roles in climate variability on regional and global scales. The tropical eastern Pacific, where extreme El Niño events develop, requires tailored approaches owing to the complex of processes at work there involving coastal upwelling, and equatorial cold tongue dynamics, the oxygen minimum zone and the seasonal double Intertropical Convergence Zone. A pilot program building on existing networks is envisaged, complemented by a process study of the East Pacific ITCZ/warm pool/cold tongue/stratus coupled system. The sustainability of TPOS depends on effective and strong collaborative partnerships and governance arrangements. Revisiting regional mechanisms and engaging new partners in the context of a planned and systematic design will ensure a multi-purpose, multi-faceted integrated approach that is sustainable and responsive to changing needs.
    Description: BD thanks LEFE-GMMC for financial support. JS participation in this study was supported by NOAA’s Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program through Award NA15OAR4320071. NOAA’s Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division has supported NS and WK and the TPOS 2020 Distributed Project Office.
    Keywords: Ocean observing ; Tropical Pacific ; TPOS 2020 ; User requirements ; Variable requirements ; Design ; Tropical moorings
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Todd, R. E., Chavez, F. P., Clayton, S., Cravatte, S., Goes, M., Greco, M., Ling, X., Sprintall, J., Zilberman, N., V., Archer, M., Aristegui, J., Balmaseda, M., Bane, J. M., Baringer, M. O., Barth, J. A., Beal, L. M., Brandt, P., Calil, P. H. R., Campos, E., Centurioni, L. R., Chidichimo, M. P., Cirano, M., Cronin, M. F., Curchitser, E. N., Davis, R. E., Dengler, M., deYoung, B., Dong, S., Escribano, R., Fassbender, A. J., Fawcett, S. E., Feng, M., Goni, G. J., Gray, A. R., Gutierrez, D., Hebert, D., Hummels, R., Ito, S., Krug, M., Lacan, F., Laurindo, L., Lazar, A., Lee, C. M., Lengaigne, M., Levine, N. M., Middleton, J., Montes, I., Muglia, M., Nagai, T., Palevsky, H., I., Palter, J. B., Phillips, H. E., Piola, A., Plueddemann, A. J., Qiu, B., Rodrigues, R. R., Roughan, M., Rudnick, D. L., Rykaczewski, R. R., Saraceno, M., Seim, H., Sen Gupta, A., Shannon, L., Sloyan, B. M., Sutton, A. J., Thompson, L., van der Plas, A. K., Volkov, D., Wilkin, J., Zhang, D., & Zhang, L. Global perspectives on observing ocean boundary current systems. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2010); 423, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00423.
    Description: Ocean boundary current systems are key components of the climate system, are home to highly productive ecosystems, and have numerous societal impacts. Establishment of a global network of boundary current observing systems is a critical part of ongoing development of the Global Ocean Observing System. The characteristics of boundary current systems are reviewed, focusing on scientific and societal motivations for sustained observing. Techniques currently used to observe boundary current systems are reviewed, followed by a census of the current state of boundary current observing systems globally. The next steps in the development of boundary current observing systems are considered, leading to several specific recommendations.
    Description: RT was supported by The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research at WHOI. FC was supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. MGo was funded by NSF and NOAA/AOML. XL was funded by China’s National Key Research and Development Projects (2016YFA0601803), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41490641, 41521091, and U1606402), and the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (2017ASKJ01). JS was supported by NOAA’s Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program (Award NA15OAR4320071). DZ was partially funded by the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA15OAR4320063. BS was supported by IMOS and CSIRO’s Decadal Climate Forecasting Project. We gratefully acknowledge the wide range of funding sources from many nations that have enabled the observations and analyses reviewed here.
    Keywords: Western boundary current systems ; Eastern boundary current systems ; Ocean observing systems ; Time series ; Autonomous underwater gliders ; Drifters ; Remote sensing ; Moorings
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 2861–2885, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00437.1.
    Description: The representation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under historical forcing and future projections is analyzed in 34 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Most models realistically simulate the observed intensity and location of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO events. However, there exist systematic biases in the westward extent of ENSO-related SST anomalies, driven by unrealistic westward displacement and enhancement of the equatorial wind stress in the western Pacific. Almost all CMIP5 models capture the observed asymmetry in magnitude between the warm and cold events (i.e., El Niños are stronger than La Niñas) and between the two types of El Niños: that is, cold tongue (CT) El Niños are stronger than warm pool (WP) El Niños. However, most models fail to reproduce the asymmetry between the two types of La Niñas, with CT stronger than WP events, which is opposite to observations. Most models capture the observed peak in ENSO amplitude around December; however, the seasonal evolution of ENSO has a large range of behavior across the models. The CMIP5 models generally reproduce the duration of CT El Niños but have biases in the evolution of the other types of events. The evolution of WP El Niños suggests that the decay of this event occurs through heat content discharge in the models rather than the advection of SST via anomalous zonal currents, as seems to occur in observations. No consistent changes are seen across the models in the location and magnitude of maximum SST anomalies, frequency, or temporal evolution of these events in a warmer world.
    Description: 2014-10-15
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Climate change ; Climate variability ; ENSO ; Climate models ; Model evaluation/performance
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Sen Gupta, A., Thomsen, M., Benthuysen, J. A., Hobday, A. J., Oliver, E., Alexander, L. V., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Feng, M., Holbrook, N. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Moore, P. J., Rodrigues, R. R., Scannell, H. A., Taschetto, A. S., Ummenhofer, C. C., Wernberg, T., & Smale, D. A. Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwaves events. Scientific Reports, 10(1), (2020): 19359. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-75445-3.
    Description: Prolonged high-temperature extreme events in the ocean, marine heatwaves, can have severe and long-lasting impacts on marine ecosystems, fisheries and associated services. This study applies a marine heatwave framework to analyse a global sea surface temperature product and identify the most extreme events, based on their intensity, duration and spatial extent. Many of these events have yet to be described in terms of their physical attributes, generation mechanisms, or ecological impacts. Our synthesis identifies commonalities between marine heatwave characteristics and seasonality, links to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, triggering processes and impacts on ocean productivity. The most intense events preferentially occur in summer, when climatological oceanic mixed layers are shallow and winds are weak, but at a time preceding climatological maximum sea surface temperatures. Most subtropical extreme marine heatwaves were triggered by persistent atmospheric high-pressure systems and anomalously weak wind speeds, associated with increased insolation, and reduced ocean heat losses. Furthermore, the most extreme events tended to coincide with reduced chlorophyll-a concentration at low and mid-latitudes. Understanding the importance of the oceanic background state, local and remote drivers and the ocean productivity response from past events are critical steps toward improving predictions of future marine heatwaves and their impacts.
    Description: Concepts and analyses were developed during three workshops organized by an international working group on marine heatwaves (https://www.marineheatwaves.org) funded by a University of Western Australia Research Collaboration Award and a Natural Environment Research Council (UK) International Opportunity Fund (NE/N00678X/1). D.A.S. is supported by a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/S032827/1). The Australian Research Council supported T.W. (FT110100174 and DP170100023) and A.S.T. (FT160100495). N.J.H. and L.V.A. are supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). M.S.T was supported by the Brian Mason Trust. P.J.M. is supported by a Marie Curie Career Integration Grant (PCIG10-GA-2011–303685) and a Natural Environment Research Council (UK) Grant (NE/J024082/1). E.C.J.O. was supported by National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant RGPIN-2018-05255 and Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction and Response Network (MEOPAR) project 1-02-02-059.1. C.C.U. acknowledges financial support through the Early Career Scientist Endowed Fund, George E. Thibault Early Career Scientist Fund, and The Joint Initiative Awards Fund from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation at WHOI. M.G.D. received funding by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ramón y Cajal 2017 grant reference RYC-2017-22964. NOAA High Resolution SST data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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