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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Newark : : American Geophysical Union,
    Keywords: Electronic books.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 1 online resource (525 pages)
    ISBN: 9781119548157
    Series Statement: Geophysical Monograph Ser. ; v.254
    Language: English
    Note: Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- PREFACE -- Section I Introduction -- Chapter 1 Introduction to El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate -- 1.1. INTRODUCTION -- 1.2. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND -- 1.3. RECENT PROGRESS AND CURRENT CHALLENGES -- 1.4. ENSO IN A CHANGING CLIMATE -- 1.5. CONCLUSION -- ENSO INDICES -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 2 ENSO in the Global Climate System -- 2.1. THE CLIMATE SYSTEM -- 2.2. THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND MEAN ANNUAL CYCLE -- 2.3. EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION -- 2.4. TELECONNECTIONS AND MODES OF VARIABILITY -- 2.5. CLIMATE CHANGE -- 2.6. IMPACTS -- REFERENCES -- Section II Observations -- Chapter 3 ENSO Observations -- 3.1. INTRODUCTION -- 3.2. A BRIEF HISTORY -- 3.3. ENSO VARIABILITY -- 3.4. DATA PRODUCTS -- 3.5. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC REANALYSES -- 3.6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 4 ENSO Diversity -- 4.1. INTRODUCTION -- 4.2. CHARACTERISTICS OF ENSO DIVERSITY -- 4.3. EQUATORIAL DYNAMICAL PROCESSES UNDERLYING ENSO DIVERSITY -- 4.4. PRECURSORS AND PREDICTABILITY OF ENSO DIVERSITY -- 4.5. LOW-FREQUENCY VARIATIONS OF ENSO DIVERSITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE -- 4.6. ENSO DIVERSITY REPRESENTATION IN CLIMATE MODELS -- 4.7. CONCLUSIONS -- APPENDIX: INDICES OF EL NIÑO DIVERSITY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 5 Past ENSO Variability: Reconstructions, Models, and Implications -- 5.1. CLIMATIC CONTEXT FOR PALEO-ENSO RECONSTRUCTION -- 5.2. OBSERVATIONAL CONSTRAINTS ON PALEO-ENSO BEHAVIOR -- 5.3. QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES TO ENSO RECONSTRUCTION -- 5.4. PALEO-CONSTRAINTS ON ENSO DYNAMICS -- 5.5. DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- APPENDIX: DATA CITATIONS -- Section III Theories and Dynamics -- Chapter 6 Simple ENSO Models -- 6.1. INTRODUCTION -- 6.2. COUPLED LINEAR INSTABILITY. , 6.3. RECHARGE OSCILLATOR (RO) AND BJERKNES-WYRTKI-JIN (BWJ) INDEX -- 6.4. FACTORS CONTROLLING ENSO AMPLITUDE, PERIODICITY, PHASE-LOCKING, ASYMMETRY, AND NONLINEAR RECTIFICATION -- 6.5. OUTLOOK -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE CZ MODEL -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 7 ENSO Irregularity and Asymmetry -- 7.1. INTRODUCTION -- 7.2. IRREGULARITY -- 7.3. ENSO AMPLITUDE ASYMMETRY -- 7.4. ENSO EVOLUTION ASYMMETRY -- 7.5. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 8 ENSO Low-Frequency Modulation and Mean State Interactions -- 8.1. INTRODUCTION -- 8.2. INTRINSICALLY GENERATED MODULATION OF ENSO -- 8.3. EXTERNALLY DRIVEN MODULATION OF ENSO -- 8.4. ENSO AND THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION -- 8.5. ENSO DECADAL MODULATION IN OCEAN ENERGETICS -- 8.6. PREDICTION OF ENSO DECADAL MODULATION -- 8.7. ENSO MODULATION AND THE GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS -- 8.8. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Section IV Modeling and Prediction -- Chapter 9 ENSO Modeling: History, Progress, and Challenges -- 9.1. HISTORY OF ENSO SIMULATION IN COMPLEX MODELS -- 9.2. BENEFITS OF A HIERARCHY OF MODELS -- 9.3. USING MODELS FOR ENSO UNDERSTANDING -- 9.4. EVALUATING ENSO IN MODELS -- 9.5. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 10 ENSO Prediction -- 10.1. HISTORY OF ENSO FORECASTING -- 10.2. ENSO PREDICTABILITY -- 10.3. ENSO PREDICTION SKILL -- 10.4. DECADAL VARIATION IN ENSO AND ITS SKILL -- 10.5. RECENT ENSO PREDICTION CHALLENGES -- 10.6. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Section V Remote and External Forcing -- Chapter 11 ENSO Remote Forcing: Influence of Climate Variability Outside the Tropical Pacific -- 11.1. INTRODUCTION -- 11.2. INDIAN OCEAN -- 11.3. ATLANTIC OCEAN -- 11.4. EXTRATROPICAL PACIFIC -- 11.5. DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES. , Chapter 12 The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO -- 12.1. INTRODUCTION -- 12.2. VOLCANIC FORCING OF CLIMATE -- 12.3. PALEOCLIMATE EVIDENCE -- 12.4. MODEL EVIDENCE AND DYNAMICS -- 12.5. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 13 ENSO Response to Greenhouse Forcing -- 13.1. INTRODUCTION -- 13.2. FORCED CHANGES IN BACKGROUND CLIMATE -- 13.3. ELUSIVE PROJECTIONS OF ENSO -- 13.4. PROCESS-BASED ENSO PROJECTIONS -- 13.5. UNCERTAINTIES AND MODEL BIASES -- 13.6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Section VI Teleconnections and Impacts -- Chapter 14 ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections -- 14.1. INTRODUCTION -- 14.2. TELECONNECTIONS TO OTHER OCEAN BASINS -- 14.3. TELECONNECTIONS TO LAND REGIONS -- 14.4. ENSO TELECONNECTIONS IN A WARMER WORLD -- 14.5. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 15 ENSO Oceanic Teleconnections -- 15.1. INTRODUCTION -- 15.2. DIRECTLY FORCED CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN CIRCULATION -- 15.3. EXTRATROPICAL TELECONNECTIONS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN VIA PLANETARY WAVES -- 15.4. INTERBASIN OCEANIC TELECONNECTION -- 15.5. MIXED ATMOSPHERIC-OCEANIC TELECONNECTIONS -- 15.6. CONCLUSIONS: PROJECTED CHANGES IN OCEANIC PATHWAYS RELATED TO ENSO CHANGES IN A WARMING WORLD -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 16 Impact of El Niño on Weather and Climate Extremes -- 16.1. INTRODUCTION -- 16.2. EXTREME CLIMATE IMPACTS -- 16.3. PREDICTABILITY: HOW AND HOW WELL DO WE PREDICT ENSO'S EXTREME IMPACTS? -- 16.4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 17 ENSO and Tropical Cyclones -- 17.1. INTRODUCTION -- 17.2. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC (WNP) TROPICAL CYCLONES -- 17.3. CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC (CEP) TCs -- 17.4. NORTH ATLANTIC TCs -- 17.5. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) TCs. , 17.6. SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TCs -- 17.7. TROPICAL CYCLONES AND CLIMATE CHANGE -- 17.8. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 18 ENSO-Driven Ocean Extremes and Their Ecosystem Impacts -- 18.1. INTRODUCTION -- 18.2. EXTREMES IN SEA LEVEL AND SEAWATER TEMPERATURE -- 18.3. IMPACTS ON SHALLOW-WATER MARINE ECOSYSTEMS -- 18.4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 19 ENSO Impact on Marine Fisheries and Ecosystems -- 19.1. INTRODUCTION -- 19.2. THE HUMBOLDT CURRENT SYSTEM -- 19.3. THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND TROPICAL TUNA FISHERIES -- 19.4. THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC -- 19.5. THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT ECOSYSTEM -- 19.6. THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUBPOLAR GYRE -- 19.7. THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC -- 19.8. THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC -- 19.9. DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTs -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 20 ENSO and the Carbon Cycle -- 20.1. INTRODUCTION -- 20.2. CARBON CYCLE VARIABILITY AND ITS CORRELATION WITH ENSO -- 20.3. PROCESSES INVOLVED IN ENSO-CARBON CYCLE INTERACTIONS -- 20.4. IMPACTS OF MAJOR EL NIÑO EVENTS ON THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE -- 20.5. ROLE OF ENSO IN PREDICTING THE FUTURE BEHAVIOR OF THE EARTH SYSTEM -- 20.6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Section VII Closing -- Chapter 21 ENSO in a Changing Climate: Challenges, Paleo-Perspectives, and Outlook -- 21.1. INTRODUCTION -- 21.2. SEASONAL CYCLE-ENSO INTERACTIONS -- 21.3. FORCED ENSO CHANGES VS. INTERNAL VARIABILITY, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ENSO PROJECTIONS -- 21.4. CONCLUDING REMARKS AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVES -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- GLOSSARY -- INDEX -- EULA.
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  • 2
    Book
    Book
    Hoboken, NJ : Wiley-American Geophysical Union
    Keywords: Climatic changes ; Ocean-atmosphere interaction ; El Niño Current
    Description / Table of Contents: "Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth's most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences - Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics - Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations - Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle - Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting - Future projections of ENSO and its impacts - Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions"--
    Type of Medium: Book
    Pages: XVI, 506 Seiten , Illustrationen
    Edition: First edition
    ISBN: 9781119548126
    Series Statement: Geophysical monograph series 253
    DDC: 551.5/24648
    Language: English
    Note: Includes index , Includes bibliographical references and index
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Hoboken, NJ : Wiley-American Geophysical Union
    Keywords: Climatic changes ; Ocean-atmosphere interaction ; Climatic changes ; Ocean-atmosphere interaction ; El Niño Current ; Pacific Ocean ; El Niño Current
    Description / Table of Contents: "Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth's most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences - Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics - Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations - Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle - Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting - Future projections of ENSO and its impacts - Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions"--
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Edition: First edition
    ISBN: 9781119548119 , 111954811X
    Series Statement: Geophysical monograph series
    DDC: 551.5/24648
    Language: English
    Note: Includes index , Includes bibliographical references and index
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-01-04
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 2861–2885, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00437.1.
    Description: The representation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under historical forcing and future projections is analyzed in 34 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Most models realistically simulate the observed intensity and location of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO events. However, there exist systematic biases in the westward extent of ENSO-related SST anomalies, driven by unrealistic westward displacement and enhancement of the equatorial wind stress in the western Pacific. Almost all CMIP5 models capture the observed asymmetry in magnitude between the warm and cold events (i.e., El Niños are stronger than La Niñas) and between the two types of El Niños: that is, cold tongue (CT) El Niños are stronger than warm pool (WP) El Niños. However, most models fail to reproduce the asymmetry between the two types of La Niñas, with CT stronger than WP events, which is opposite to observations. Most models capture the observed peak in ENSO amplitude around December; however, the seasonal evolution of ENSO has a large range of behavior across the models. The CMIP5 models generally reproduce the duration of CT El Niños but have biases in the evolution of the other types of events. The evolution of WP El Niños suggests that the decay of this event occurs through heat content discharge in the models rather than the advection of SST via anomalous zonal currents, as seems to occur in observations. No consistent changes are seen across the models in the location and magnitude of maximum SST anomalies, frequency, or temporal evolution of these events in a warmer world.
    Description: 2014-10-15
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Climate change ; Climate variability ; ENSO ; Climate models ; Model evaluation/performance
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The upper ocean circulation of the Pacific and Indian Oceans is connected through both the Indonesian Throughflow north of Australia and the Tasman leakage around its south. The relative importance of these two pathways is examined using virtual Lagrangian particles in a high-resolution nested ocean model. The unprecedented combination of a long integration time within an eddy-permitting ocean model simulation allows the first assessment of the interannual variability of these pathways in a realistic setting. The mean Indonesian Throughflow, as diagnosed by the particles, is 14.3 Sv, considerably higher than the diagnosed average Tasman leakage of 4.2 Sv. The time series of Indonesian Throughflow agrees well with the Eulerian transport through the major Indonesian Passages, validating the Lagrangian approach using transport-tagged particles. While the Indonesian Throughflow is mainly associated with upper ocean pathways, the Tasman leakage is concentrated in the 400–900 m depth range at subtropical latitudes. Over the effective period considered (1968–1994), no apparent relationship is found between the Tasman leakage and Indonesian Throughflow. However, the Indonesian Throughflow transport correlates with ENSO. During strong La Niñas, more water of Southern Hemisphere origin flows through Makassar, Moluccas, Ombai, and Timor Straits, but less through Moluccas Strait. In general, each strait responds differently to ENSO, highlighting the complex nature of the ENSO-ITF interaction.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: video
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  • 6
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119 (9). pp. 6221-6237.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Previous studies have shown that ENSO's anomalous equatorial winds, including the observed southward shift of zonal winds that occurs around the event peak, can be reconstructed with the first two Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of equatorial region wind stresses. Using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model, we investigate the effect of these two EOFs on changes in warm water volume (WWV), interhemispheric mass transports, and Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Wind stress anomalies associated with the first EOF produce changes in WWV that are dynamically consistent with the conceptual recharge oscillator paradigm. The ITF is found to heavily damp these WWV changes, reducing their variance by half. Wind stress anomalies associated with the second EOF, which depicts the southward wind shift, are responsible for WWV changes that are of comparable magnitude to those driven by the first mode. The southward wind shift is also responsible for the majority of the observed interhemispheric upper ocean mass exchanges. These winds transfer mass between the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere during El Niño events. Whilst water is transferred in the opposite direction during La Niña events, the magnitude of this exchange is roughly half of that seen during El Niño events. Thus, the discharging of WWV during El Niño events is meridionally asymmetric, while the WWV recharging during a La Niña event is largely symmetric. The inclusion of the southward wind shift is also shown to allow ENSO to exchange mass with much higher latitudes than that allowed by the first EOF alone.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are accompanied by changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, affecting global climate, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fisheries and human activities. The alternation of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions, referred to as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents the strongest year-to-year fluctuation of the global climate system. Here we provide a synopsis of our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-03-18
    Description: Climate models generally simulate a long-term slowdown of the Pacific Walker Circulation in a warming world. However, despite increasing greenhouse forcing, there was an unprecedented intensification of the Pacific Trade Winds during 1992–2011, that co-occurred with a temporary slowdown in global surface warming. Using ensemble simulations from three different climate models starting from different initial conditions, we find a large spread in projected 20-year globally averaged surface air temperature trends that can be linked to differences in Pacific climate variability. This implies diminished predictive skill for global surface air temperature trends over decadal timescales, to a large extent due to intrinsic Pacific Ocean variability. We show, however, that this uncertainty can be considerably reduced when the initial oceanic state is known and well represented in the model. In this case, the spatial patterns of 20-year surface air temperature trends depend largely on the initial state of the Pacific Ocean.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
    Format: text
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