Description: Introduction Asthma has a considerable, but potentially, avoidable burden on many populations globally. Scotland has some of the poorest health outcomes from asthma. Although ambient pollution, weather changes and sociodemographic factors have been associated with asthma attacks, it remains unclear whether modelled environment data and geospatial information can improve population-based asthma predictive algorithms. We aim to create the afferent loop of a national learning health system for asthma in Scotland. We will investigate the associations between ambient pollution, meteorological, geospatial and sociodemographic factors and asthma attacks. Methods and Analysis We will develop and implement a secured data governance and linkage framework to incorporate primary care health data, modelled environment data, geospatial population and sociodemographic data. Data from 75 recruited primary care practices (n=500 000 patients) in Scotland will be used. Modelled environment data on key air pollutants at a horizontal resolution of 5 km x 5 km at hourly time steps will be generated using the EMEP4UK atmospheric chemistry transport modelling system for the datazones of the primary care practices’ populations. Scottish population census and education databases will be incorporated into the linkage framework for analysis. We will then undertake a longitudinal retrospective observational analysis. Asthma outcomes include asthma hospitalisations and oral steroid prescriptions. Using a nested case–control study design, associations between all covariates will be measured using conditional logistic regression to account for the matched design and to identify suitable predictors and potential candidate algorithms for an asthma learning health system in Scotland. Findings from this study will contribute to the development of predictive algorithms for asthma outcomes and be used to form the basis for our learning health system prototype. Ethics and dissemination The study received National Health Service Research Ethics Committee approval (16/SS/0130) and also obtained permissions via the Public Benefit and Privacy Panel for Health and Social Care in Scotland to access, collate and use the following data sets: population and housing census for Scotland; Scottish education data via the Scottish Exchange of Data and primary care data from general practice Data Custodians. Analytic code will be made available in the open source GitHub website. The results of this study will be published in international peer reviewed journals.

Description: Objectives Our objective was to augment the limited evidence mainly from local, clinical studies of ethnic differences in gastrointestinal disorders. Our question was: are there ethnic variations in hospitalisation/death for lower gastrointestinal disorders in Scotland? Setting Scotland. Population This retrospective-cohort linked 4.65 (of 4.9) million people in the 2001 census of Scotland (providing data on ethnicity, country of birth and indicators of socioeconomic deprivation) to 9 years of National Health Service hospitalisation and death records. Primary and secondary outcome measures and analysis For appendicitis, we studied all ages; for irritable bowel syndrome, ulcerative colitis, Crohn's disease and diverticular disease, we included those ≥20 years. Using Poisson regression (robust variance) we calculated, by ethnic group and sex, first-hospitalisation/death age-adjusted rates per 100 000 person-years, and relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs multiplied by 100, so the White Scottish reference population had an RR=100. Results There were ethnic variations; for example, for irritable bowel syndrome, RRs (95% CIs) were comparatively high in Other White British women (128.4 (111.0 to 148.6)), and low in Pakistani women (75.1 (60.6 to 93.1)). For appendicitis, RRs were high in men in Other White British (145.2 (127.8 to 164.9)), and low in most non-White groups, for example, Pakistanis (73.8 (56.9 to 95.6)). For ulcerative colitis, RRs were high in Indian (169.8 (109.7 to 262.7)) and Pakistani (160.8 (104.2 to 248.2)) men. For Crohn's disease, the RR was high in Pakistani men (209.2 (149.6 to 292.6)). For diverticular disease, RRs were high in Irish men (176.0 (156.9 to 197.5)), and any Mixed background women (144.6 (107.4 to 194.8)), and low in most non-White groups, for example, Chinese men (47.1 (31.0 to 71.6) and women (46.0 (30.4 to 69.8)). Conclusions Appendicitis and diverticular disease were comparatively low in most non-White groups, while ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease were mostly higher in South Asians. Describing and understanding such patterns may help clinical practice and research internationally.

Description: Background: Upper gastrointestinal (GI) diseases are common, but there is a paucity of data describing variations by ethnic group and so a lack of understanding of potential health inequalities. We studied the incidence of specific upper GI hospitalization and death by ethnicity in Scotland. Methods: Using the Scottish Health and Ethnicity Linkage Study, linking NHS hospitalizations and mortality to the Scottish Census 2001, we explored ethnic differences in incidence (2001–10) of oesophagitis, peptic ulcer disease, gallstone disease and pancreatitis. Relative Risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Poisson regression, multiplied by 100, stratified by sex and adjusted for age, country of birth (COB) and socio-economic position. The White Scottish population (100) was the reference population. Results: Ethnic variations varied by outcome and sex, e.g. adjusted RRs (95% confidence intervals) for oesophagitis were comparatively higher in Bangladeshi women (209; 124–352) and lower in Chinese men (65; 51–84) and women (69; 55–88). For peptic ulcer disease, RRs were higher in Chinese men (171; 131–223). Pakistani women had higher RRs for gallstone disease (129; 112–148) and pancreatitis (147; 109–199). The risks of upper GI diseases were lower in Other White British and Other White [e.g. for peptic ulcer disease in men, respectively (74; 64–85) and (81; 69–94)]. Conclusion: Risks of common upper GI diseases were comparatively lower in most White ethnic groups in Scotland. In non-White groups, however, risk varied by disease and ethnic group. These results require consideration in health policy, service planning and future research.

Description: Objectives Acute pancreatitis (AP) can initiate systemic complications that require support in critical care (CC). Our objective was to use the unified national health record to define the epidemiology of AP in Scotland, with a specific focus on deterministic and prognostic factors for CC admission in AP. Setting Health boards in Scotland (n=4). Participants We included all individuals in a retrospective observational cohort with at least one episode of AP (ICD10 code K85) occurring in Scotland from 1 April 2009 to 31 March 2012. 3340 individuals were coded as AP. Methods Data from 16 sources, spanning general practice, community prescribing, Accident and Emergency attendances, hospital in-patient, CC and mortality registries, were linked by a unique patient identifier in a national safe haven. Logistic regression and gamma models were used to define independent predictive factors for severe AP (sAP) requiring CC admission or leading to death. Results 2053 individuals (61.5% (95% CI 59.8% to 63.2%)) met the definition for true AP (tAP). 368 patients (17.9% of tAP (95% CI 16.2% to 19.6%)) were admitted to CC. Predictors of sAP were pre-existing angina or hypertension, hypocalcaemia and age 30–39 years, if type 2 diabetes mellitus was present. The risk of sAP was lower in patients with multiple previous episodes of AP. In-hospital mortality in tAP was 5.0% (95% CI 4.1% to 5.9%) overall and 21.7% (95% CI 19.9% to 23.5%) in those with tAP necessitating CC admission. Conclusions National record-linkage analysis of routinely collected data constitutes a powerful resource to model CC admission and prognosticate death during AP. Mortality in patients with AP who require CC admission remains high.