Note: Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Content -- Introduction -- First Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Experiment -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Models -- 2.1. 5-Year Models -- 2.2. Mainshock Models -- 2.3. Mainshock+Aftershock Models -- 2.4. Corrected Forecast Groups -- 3. Testing Center -- 3.1. Tests for Evaluating the Earthquake Forecasts -- 3.2. The Number- or N-Test -- 3.3. The Likelihood- or L-Test -- 3.4. The Likelihood-Ratio- or R-Test -- 3.5. Masking -- 3.6. Uncertainties in Observations -- 4. Results -- 4.1. Observed Earthquakes -- 4.2. Mainshock Models -- 4.3. Mainshock Corrected -- 4.4. Mainshock+Aftershock Models -- 4.5. Mainshock?Aftershock Corrected -- 5. Discussion -- REFERENCES -- New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Purpose of the Centre -- 3. Test Region and Grid Specifications -- 4. Catalogue Completeness Issues -- 5. Other Catalogue Quality Issues -- 6. Requirements for Model Submission -- 6.1. Five-year Models -- 6.2. Six-month Models -- 6.3. Three-month Models -- 6.4. 24-hour Models -- 7. Tests of Model Performance -- 7.1. N test -- 7.2. L test -- 7.3. R test -- 7.4. Catalogue Uncertainties -- 7.5. Declustering -- 8. Other Considerations -- 9. Models Installed in the Testing Centre -- 9.1. Five-year Models -- 9.2. Six-month Models -- 9.3. Three-month Models -- 10. Conclusion -- Appendix 1 -- Appendix 2 -- REFERENCES -- The Area Skill Score Statistic for Evaluating Earthquake Predictability Experiments -- 1. Earthquake Forecasting with an Alarm Function -- 2. Molchan Diagram for Testing Alarm Functions -- 3. Area Skill Score -- 4. Area Skill Score Distribution -- 5. Moments of the Area Skill Score Distribution -- 6. Experimental Discretization -- 7. Discussion -- 8. Conclusion -- Appendix 1: Expected Value of Molchan Trajectory Jump (tk). , Appendix 2: Number of Nonzero Sums of a Set's Elements -- REFERENCES -- Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: The Error Diagrams -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The Error Diagram -- 3. The Reduced Error Diagrams -- 4. Conclusion and Discussion -- Appendix -- REFERENCES -- Identifying Seismicity Levels via Poisson Hidden Markov Models -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Method -- 2.1. Definitions and Notation -- 2.2. Model Selection -- 2.3. Time Unit and Time Interval Selection -- 3. The Test Area -- 3.1. Geotectonics -- 3.2. Seismicity -- 3.3. Data Selection -- 3.4. Seismicity Analysis -- 4. Results of PHMMs -- 4.1. Counting Interval T = 1 day -- 4.2. Counting Interval T = 1 month -- 4.3. Model Selection -- 5. Conclusions -- REFERENCES -- Distribution of Seismicity Before the Larger Earthquakes in Italy in the Time Interval 1994-2004 -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The RTL Algorithm and its Improved Versions -- 3. Data-Set pre-Processing -- 3.1. Declustering -- 3.2. Completeness -- 3.3. Selection of Target Events -- 4. RTL Analyses -- 4.1. Retrospective Forecasting of M> -- 5 Earthquakes -- 4.2. Spatial Distribution of RTL -- 4.3. Development of RTLsurv -- 5. Alarms and False Alarms -- 6. Conclusions -- REFERENCES -- Predicting the Human Losses Implied by Predictions of Earthquakes: Southern Sumatra and Central Chile -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Method -- 3. Calibration -- 4. Results -- 4.1. Southern Sumatra -- 4.2. Central Chile -- 5. Discussion -- 6. Conclusions -- REFERENCES -- Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The WGCEP Approach -- 3. The Virtual California Simulation Approach -- 4. VC and Assimilation of Paleoseismic Data -- 5. ''Data Scoring'' Methods -- 6. Forecasting Feasibility Methods -- 7. Results -- 8. Discussion and Conclusions -- REFERENCES. , Spatial Separation of Large Earthquakes, Aftershocks, and Background Seismicity: Analysis of Interseismic and Coseismic Seismicity Patterns in Southern California -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Earthquake Data -- 3. Results -- 3.1. Seismicity Patterns Near Selected PSZs -- 3.1.1 Southern San Andreas Fault -- 3.1.2 San Jacinto Fault -- 3.1.3 Elsinore Fault -- 3.1.4 The 1992 Landers Sequence -- 3.1.5 Summary -- 3.2. Decay of Seismicity with Distance Away from PSZs -- 3.3. Seismicity Characteristics Associated with each Fault Group -- 4. Discussion -- 5. Conclusions -- REFERENCES -- Earthquake Source Zones in Northeast India: Seismic Tomography, Fractal Dimension and b Value Mapping -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Seismotectonics of the Region -- 3. Data Source -- 4. Data Analysis -- 4.1. Simultaneous Inversion -- 4.2. Fractal Dimension Mapping -- 4.3. b Value Mapping -- 5. Results and Discussion -- REFERENCES -- Seismic Hazard Evaluation in Western Turkey as Revealed by Stress Transfer and Time-dependent Probability Calculations -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Seismotectonic Setting -- 3. Methodology -- 4. Long-term Slip Rate Constraints on Major Faults -- 5. Calculation of the Evolutionary Stress Field -- 6. Influence of the Skempton's Coefficient, and Rake and Dip Angles on the DCFF Calculations -- 7. Stress Transfer and Earthquake Probabilities -- 8. Discussion -- Appendix: Events (M > -- 6.5) Included in the Stress Evolutionary Model -- REFERENCES -- Correlation of Static Stress Changes and Earthquake Occurrence in the North Aegean Region -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Data and Methods -- 3. Stress Calculations -- 4. Correlation of Stress Changes and Earthquake Occurrence -- 5. Conclusion -- Appendix -- REFERENCES -- Aftershock Sequences Modeled with 3-D Stress Heterogeneity and Rate-State Seismicity Equations: Implications for Crustal Stress Estimation -- 1. Introduction. , 2. Rate- and State-dependent Friction -- 3. A Model of 3-D Spatially Varying Stress Heterogeneity -- 4. Methodology -- 5. Overview of Results -- 6. Background Seismicity at Constant Stressing Rate -- 7. Spatially Uniform Static Stress Change, DrF -- 8. Spatially Variable Static Stress Change, DrF(x),Through Slip on Finite Faults -- 9. Conclusions -- REFERENCES -- Earthquake Recurrence in Simulated Fault Systems -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Simulations -- 3. Model Characteristics -- 4. Recurrence Distributions -- 5. Summary and Discussion -- REFERENCES -- Continuous Observation of Groundwater and Crustal Deformation for Forecasting Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes in Japan -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Observation -- 2.1. Nankai, Tonankai and Tokai Earthquakes -- 2.2. Details of Past Groundwater Changes related to Past Nankai Earthquakes -- 2.3. Observation Systems -- 3. Results -- 3.1. Long-term Changes from May 2007 to June 2008 -- 3.2. Strain and Groundwater Changes in June 2008 -- 4. Discussion -- 5. Conclusion -- REFERENCES -- Anomalies of Seismic Activity and Transient Crustal Deformations Preceding the 2005 M 7.0 Earthquake West of Fukuoka -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Seismic Activity in and around Kyushu Preceding the 2005 Earthquake of M 7.0 West of Fukuoka -- 3. Geodetic Time Series of Baseline Distances -- 4. Discussion -- 5. Conclusion -- Appendix 1: ETAS Model and Change-point Analysis for Seismicity -- Appendix 2: Coulomb Stress Change -- REFERENCES.