Note: The Science of Disasters -- Copyright -- Preface -- Introductory Remarks -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- Part I General -- 1. Entropy, Complexity, Predictability, and Data Analysis of Time Series and Letter Sequences -- 2. Wavelet Based Multifractal Formalism: Applications to DNA Sequences, Satellite Images of the Cloud Structure, and Stock Market Data -- Part II Climate Systems -- 3. Space-Time Variability of the European Climate -- 4. Is Climate Predictable? -- 5. Atmospheric Persistence Analysis: Novel Approaches and Applications -- 6. Assessment and Management of Critical Events: The Breakdown of Marine Fisheries and The North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation -- Part III Biodynamics -- 7. Fractal and Multifractal Approaches in Physiology -- 8. Physiological Relevance of Scaling of Heart Phenomena -- 9. Local Scaling Properties for Diagnostic Purposes -- 10. Unstable Periodic Orbits and Stochastic Synchronization in Sensory Biology -- 11. Crowd Disasters and Simulation of Panic Situations -- Part IV Nonlinear Economics -- 12. Investigations of Financial Markets Using Statistical Physics Methods -- 13. Market Fluctuations I: Scaling, Multiscaling, and Their Possible Origins -- 14. Market Fluctuations II: Multiplicative and Percolation Models, Size Effects, and Predictions -- Glossary -- Subject Index.

Note: Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- Acronyms -- Contributors -- Part I Extremes, Uncertainty, and Reconstruction -- 1 The Statistics of Return Intervals, Maxima, and Centennial Events Under the Influence of Long-Term Correlations -- Jan F. Eichner, Jan W. Kantelhardt, Armin Bunde, and Shlomo Havlin -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Statistics of Return Intervals -- 1.2.1 Mean Return Interval and Standard Deviation -- 1.2.2 Stretched Exponential and Finite-Size Effects for Large Return Intervals -- 1.2.3 Power-Law Regime and Discretization Effects for Small Return Intervals -- 1.2.4 Long-Term Correlations of the Return Intervals -- 1.2.5 Conditional Return Interval Distributions -- 1.2.6 Conditional Return Periods -- 1.3 Statistics of Maxima -- 1.3.1 Extreme Value Statistics for i.i.d. Data -- 1.3.2 Effect of Long-Term Persistence on the Distribution of the Maxima -- 1.3.3 Effect of Long-Term Persistence on the Correlations of the Maxima -- 1.3.4 Conditional Mean Maxima -- 1.3.5 Conditional Maxima Distributions -- 1.4 Centennial Events -- 1.5 Conclusion -- References -- 2 The Bootstrap in Climate Risk Analysis -- Manfred Mudelsee -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Method -- 2.2.1 Kernel Risk Estimation -- 2.2.2 Bootstrap Confidence Band Construction -- 2.3 Data -- 2.4 Results -- 2.5 Conclusion -- References -- 3 Confidence Intervals for Flood Return Level Estimates Assuming Long-Range Dependence -- Henning W. Rust, Malaak Kallache, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, and Jürgen P. Kropp -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Basic Theory -- 3.2.1 The Generalized Extreme Value Distribution -- 3.2.2 GEV Parameter Estimation -- 3.3 Effects of Dependence on Confidence Intervals -- 3.4 Bootstrapping the Estimators Variance -- 3.4.1 Motivation of the Central Idea -- 3.4.2 Modelling the Distribution -- 3.4.3 Modelling the ACF. , 3.4.4 Combining Distribution and Autocorrelation -- 3.4.5 Generating Bootstrap Ensembles -- 3.5 Comparison of the Bootstrap Approaches -- 3.5.1 Monte Carlo Reference Ensemble -- 3.5.2 The Bootstrap Ensembles -- 3.5.3 Ensemble Variability and Dependence on Ensemble Size -- 3.6 Case Study -- 3.6.1 Extreme Value Analysis -- 3.6.2 Modelling the ACF of the Daily Series -- 3.6.3 Modelling the ACF of the Maxima Series -- 3.6.4 Combining Distribution and ACF -- 3.6.5 Calculating the Confidence Limit -- 3.7 Discussion -- 3.8 Conclusion -- References -- 4 Regional Determination of Historical Heavy Rain for Reconstruction of Extreme Flood Events -- Paul Dostal, Florian Imbery, Katrin Bürger, and Jochen Seidel -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Methodological Concept and Data Overview -- 4.2.1 Meteorological Data from October 1824 -- 4.2.2 Methods -- 4.3 Results -- 4.3.1 The Extreme Weather Situation of October 1824 -- 4.3.2 Calculation of the 1824 Precipitation -- 4.3.3 Modelling the Area Precipitation of 1824 -- 4.3.4 Modelled Neckar Discharges for the Flood Eventof October 1824 -- 4.4 Conclusion -- References -- 5 Development of Regional Flood Frequency Relationships for Gauged and Ungauged Catchments Using L-Moments -- Rakesh Kumar and Chandranath Chatterjee -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Regional Flood Frequency Analysis -- 5.2.1 At-Site Flood Frequency Analysis -- 5.2.2 At-Site and Regional Flood Frequency Analysis -- 5.2.3 Regional Flood Frequency Analysis -- 5.3 L-Moment Approach -- 5.3.1 Probability Weighted Moments and L-Moments -- 5.3.2 Screening of Data Using Discordancy Measure Test -- 5.3.3 Test of Regional Homogeneity -- 5.3.4 Identification of Robust Regional Frequency Distribution -- 5.4 Study Area and Data Availability -- 5.5 Analysis and Discussion of Results -- 5.5.1 Screening of Data Using Discordancy Measure Test. , 5.5.2 Test of Regional Homogeneity -- 5.5.3 Identification of Robust Regional Frequency Distribution -- 5.5.4 Regional Flood Frequency Relationship for Gauged Catchments -- 5.5.5 Regional Flood Frequency Relationship for Ungauged Catchments -- 5.6 Conclusion -- References -- Part II Extremes, Trends, and Changes -- 6 Intense Precipitation and High Floods -- Observations and Projections -- Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Observations of Intense Precipitation -- 6.3 Observations of River Flow -- 6.4 Projections of Intense Precipitation and High River Flow -- 6.5 Conclusion -- References -- 7 About Trend Detection in River Floods -- Maciej Radziejewski -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Methods -- 7.2.1 Testing of Significance -- 7.2.2 Resampling -- 7.2.3 Tests for Changes -- 7.3 Trends in Time Series of River Flows -- 7.4 Trends in Seasonal Maxima -- 7.5 Seasonal Peaks Over Threshold -- 7.6 Most Extreme Flows -- 7.7 Conclusion -- References -- 8 Extreme Value Analysis Considering Trends: Application to Discharge Data of the Danube River Basin -- Malaak Kallache, Henning W. Rust, Holger Lange, and Jürgen P. Kropp -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Method -- 8.2.1 Choice of the Extreme Values -- 8.2.2 Point Processes -- 8.2.3 Test for Trend -- 8.2.4 Return-Level Estimation -- 8.3 Results -- 8.4 Conclusion -- References -- 9 Extreme Value and Trend Analysis Based on Statistical Modelling of Precipitation Time Series -- Silke Trömel and Christian-D. Schönwiese -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Components -- 9.3 The Distance Function and the Model Selection Criterion -- 9.4 Application to a German Station Network -- 9.4.1 General Remarks -- 9.4.2 Example: Eisenbach--Bubenbach -- 9.4.3 Probability Assessment of Extreme Values -- 9.4.4 Changes in the Expected Value -- 9.5 Conclusions -- References. , 10 A Review on the Pettitt Test -- Diego Rybski and Jörg Neumann -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Data -- 10.3 Methods -- 10.4 Results -- 10.4.1 River Runoff Records -- 10.4.2 Simulations -- 10.4.3 Reasoning -- 10.5 Conclusion -- References -- Part III Long-Term Phenomena and Nonlinear Properties -- 11 Detrended Fluctuation Studies of Long-Term Persistence and Multifractality of Precipitation and River Runoff Records -- Diego Rybski, Armin Bunde, Shlomo Havlin, Jan W. Kantelhardt, and Eva Koscielny-Bunde -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Data -- 11.3 Correlation Analysis -- 11.3.1 General -- 11.3.2 Standard Fluctuation Analysis (FA) -- 11.3.3 The Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) -- 11.3.4 Wavelet Transform (WT) -- 11.4 Multifractal Analysis -- 11.4.1 Multifractal DFA (MF-DFA) -- 11.4.2 Comparison with Related Multifractal Formalisms -- 11.5 Results of the Correlation Behaviour -- 11.5.1 River Runoff -- 11.5.2 Precipitation -- 11.6 Results of the Multifractal Behaviour -- 11.6.1 Fits by the Universal Multifractal Model -- 11.6.2 Fits by the Extended Multiplicative Cascade Model -- 11.6.3 Fits by the Bifractal Model -- 11.6.4 Results -- 11.7 Conclusion -- References -- 12 Long-Term Structures in Southern German Runoff Data -- Miguel D. Mahecha, Holger Lange, and Gunnar Lischeid -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Methods -- 12.2.1 Data Sets and Preparation -- 12.2.2 Dimensionality Reduction in Space -- 12.2.3 Dimensionality Reduction in Time -- 12.3 Results -- 12.3.1 Dimensionality Reduction -- 12.3.2 Dimensionality Reduction in the Time Domain -- 12.3.3 Regional Patterns and Hydrological Dependencies -- 12.4 Discussion -- 12.4.1 Methodological Outlook -- 12.5 Conclusion -- References -- 13 Seasonality Effects on Nonlinear Properties of Hydrometeorological Records. , Valerie N. Livina, Yosef Ashkenazy, Armin Bunde, and Shlomo Havlin -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 Methodology -- 13.2.1 Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis -- 13.2.2 Volatility Correlations and Surrogate Test for Nonlinearity -- 13.3 The Way Periodicities Affect the Estimation of Nonlinearities: Conventional Seasonal Detrending -- 13.4 A New Method for Filtering Out Periodicities -- 13.5 Results -- 13.5.1 Tests of Artificial Data -- 13.5.2 Results of Volatility Analysis of Observed River Data -- 13.5.3 Results of Multifractal Analysis of Observed River Data -- 13.6 Conclusion -- References -- 14 Spatial Correlations of River Runoffs in a Catchment -- Reik Donner -- 14.1 Introduction -- 14.2 Description of the Data -- 14.3 Correlation Functions and Related Quantities -- 14.3.1 Pearson's Linear Correlation -- 14.3.2 Non-parametric (Rank-Order) Correlations -- 14.3.3 (Cross-) Mutual Information -- 14.3.4 Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) -- 14.4 Mutual Correlations Between Different Stations -- 14.5 Ensemble Correlations -- 14.5.1 KLD-Based Dimension Estimates -- 14.5.2 Case Study I: The Christmas 1967 Flood -- 14.5.3 Non-parametric Ensemble Correlations -- 14.5.4 Case Study II: The January 1995 Flood -- 14.6 Conclusion -- References -- Subject Index.

Note: Front Cover -- Inhalt -- Ein Weckruf in Grafiken -- Einleitung -- Klima und CO2 -- Wie das Klimasystem funktioniert -- Wälder und Meere: wichtige CO2-Speicher -- CO2-Emissionen im Vergleich -- Der Energiehaushalt ist im Ungleichgewicht … -- … und die Erde erwärmt sich -- Die Verteilung der Wärme -- Kippelemente im Klimasystem -- Mensch Klimatreiber -- Anthropogene Treibhausgase -- Paralleles Wachstum: Weltbevölkerung und CO2-Gehalt -- Deutschlands CO2-Emissionen im Detail -- Der größte CO2-Produzent -- Versteckte Emissionen im Warenhandel -- Europaweite CO2-Bilanz und Ziele -- CO2-Fußabdruck des Tourismus -- Energieriese Internet -- Warentransport: Motor der Globalisierung -- Emissionen durch Regenwaldrodung -- Gefährdeter Regenwald -- Abholzung für Rinder und Soja -- Palmölplantagen in Südostasien -- Wofür Palmöl verwendet wird -- Degradation der Böden -- Weltweite Auswirkungen -- Dominoeffekt der Erwärmung -- Extreme Hitzewellen werden häufiger -- Das Meereis in der Arktis schwindet -- Die Eisschilde tauen -- Himalajagletscher schmelzen -- Permafrostböden werden zur Zeitbombe -- Das Leben im Ozean verändert sich -- Die Klimakrise verschärft Konflikte und Flucht -- Klimamigration im Pazifik -- Untergehendes Bangladesch -- Wetterextreme und menschlicher Einfluss -- Klimarisiken in Afrika -- Rückgang der Artenvielfalt -- Globale Wasserknappheit -- Moskitos, Zecken und invasive Arten -- Lösungsansätze -- Die Anpassung an die Klimakrise ist essenziell -- In 10 Punkten zu mehr Klimaschutz -- Die Energiewende ist dringend nötig -- Grüne Wirtschaftswende -- Agrarwende als Chance -- Wir brauchen eine Transportwende -- Weltkarte des Wandels -- Persönlicher Wandel -- Der Klimaschutz beginnt zu Hause -- Grüne Städte und Mobilität -- Nachhaltig konsumieren -- Quellen -- Über die Autorin -- Back Cover.

Note: Cover -- Climate Change as a Security Risk -- Copyright -- Contents -- Council Staff and Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Boxes -- Tables -- Figures -- Acronyms and Abbreviations -- Summary for Policy-makers -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Environmental change in security discourse -- 2.1 Redefining security -- 2.1.1 Comprehensive security -- 2.1.2 Human security -- 2.2 Current security policy strategies -- 2.3 WBGU's aims and use of terms -- 3 Known conflict impacts of environmental change -- 3.1 State of conflict research at the interface of environment and security -- 3.1.1 Environment and conflict research -- 3.1.1.1 The Toronto group around Homer-Dixon -- 3.1.1.2 The Zurich group around Bächler and Spillmann -- 3.1.1.3 The Oslo group around Gleditsch -- 3.1.1.4 The Irvine group around Matthew -- 3.1.1.5 The German research scene and WBGU's syndrome approach -- 3.1.1.6 Fundamental critique of environment and conflict research -- 3.1.1.7 Key findings from environment and conflict research -- 3.2 World map of past environmental conflicts -- 3.2.1 Resource conflicts over land, soil, water and biodiversity -- 3.2.2 Conflict-related impacts of storm and flood disasters -- 3.3 War and conflict research -- 3.3.1 Regime type, political stability and governance structures -- 3.3.2 Economic factors -- 3.3.2.1 Economic performance and distributive justice -- 3.3.2.2 Natural resources -- 3.3.3 Societal stability and demography -- 3.3.3.1 Population trends -- 3.3.3.2 Socio-cultural composition of the population -- 3.3.3.3 History of conflict -- 3.3.4 Geographical factors -- 3.3.5 International distribution of power and interdependencies -- 3.3.6 Main findings of conflict research -- 3.4 Conclusions -- 4 Rising conflict risks due to state fragility and a changing world order -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 State fragility and the limits of governance. , 4.2.1 Characteristics of state fragility -- 4.2.2 Destabilizing effects of environmental degradation -- 4.3 Unstable multipolarity: The political setting of global change -- 4.3.1 Conflict or cooperation through the transformation of the world order? -- 4.3.2 Global trends: China, India and the path towards multipolarity -- 4.3.3 Global governance in the context of Chinese and Indian ascendancy -- 4.3.3.1 Multipolarity as a threat to multilateralism? -- 4.3.3.2 General dynamics of global political change -- 4.3.3.3 China and India as the driving forces of global political change -- 4.4 Conclusions -- 5 Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society -- 5.1 Changes in climatic parameters -- 5.1.1 Temperature -- 5.1.2 Precipitation -- 5.1.3 Tropical cyclones -- 5.1.4 Sea-level rise -- 5.2 Climate impacts upon human well-being and society -- 5.2.1 Impacts upon freshwater availability -- 5.2.2 Climate change impacts upon vegetation and land use -- 5.2.3 Climate change impacts upon storm and flood events -- 5.2.4 Indirect economic and social impacts of climate change -- 5.2.4.1 Climate change impacts in selected economic sectors -- 5.2.4.2 Climate change impacts on the global economy -- 5.2.4.3 Climate change impacts on society -- 5.3 Non-linear effects and tipping points -- 5.3.1 Weakening of the North Atlantic Current -- 5.3.2 Monsoon transformation -- 5.3.3 Instability of the continental ice sheets -- 5.3.4 Collapse of the Amazon rainforest -- 5.3.5 Conclusions -- 6 Conflict constellations -- 6.1 Methodology -- 6.1.1 Selection and definition -- 6.1.2 Using narrative scenarios to identify security risks -- 6.1.3 Deriving recommendations for action -- 6.2 Conflict constellation 'Climate-induced degradation of freshwater resources' -- 6.2.1 Background -- 6.2.1.1 Brief description of the conflict constellation. , 6.2.1.2 Water crises today and tomorrow -- 6.2.2 Causal linkages -- 6.2.2.1 From climate change to changes in water availability -- 6.2.2.2 From changes in water availability to water crisis -- 6.2.2.3 From water crisis to conflict and violence -- 6.2.3 Scenarios -- 6.2.3.1 Glacier retreat, water crisis and violent conflict in the greater Lima area -- 6.2.3.2 Glacier retreat, water crisis and violent confrontation in Central Asia -- 6.2.4 Recommendations for action -- 6.3 Conflict constellation: 'Climate-induced decline in food production' -- 6.3.1 Background -- 6.3.1.1 Global food production: Future trends in supply and demand -- 6.3.1.2 Changing framework conditions for global food production -- 6.3.2 Causal linkages -- 6.3.2.1 From environmental change to declining food production -- 6.3.2.2 From declining food production to food crisis -- 6.3.2.3 From food crisis to destabilization and violence -- 6.3.3 Scenario: Agricultural production crisis, food crisis and violence in southern Africa -- 6.3.4 Recommendations for action -- 6.4 Conflict constellation: 'Climate-induced increase in storm and flood disasters' -- 6.4.1 Background -- 6.4.2 Causal linkages -- 6.4.2.1 From environmental change to increase in storm and flood disasters -- 6.4.2.2 From more frequent storm and flood disasters to crisis -- 6.4.2.3 From crisis to destabilization and violence -- 6.4.2.4 The time sequence of disaster-induced conflict mechanisms -- 6.4.3 Scenarios -- 6.4.3.1 Storm and flood disasters in China -- 6.4.3.2 Hurricane risks in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean -- 6.4.4 Recommendations for action -- 6.5 Conflict constellation: 'Environmentally induced migration' -- 6.5.1 Background -- 6.5.1.1 Structure of the conflict constellation -- 6.5.1.2 Environmentally induced migration as a core element of the conflict constellation -- 6.5.2 Causal linkages. , 6.5.2.1 From environmental change to migration -- 6.5.2.2 From migration to conflict -- 6.5.3 Scenarios -- 6.5.3.1 Environmentally induced migration and conflict in Bangladesh -- 6.5.3.2 Environmentally induced migration and conflicts in North Africa and neighbouring Mediterranean countries -- 6.5.4 Recommendations for action -- 6.5.4.1 Avoiding environmentally induced migration -- 6.5.4.2 Managing environmentally induced migration -- 6.5.4.3 Supporting developing countries -- 6.5.4.4 Instruments of international law -- 7 Hotspots of climate change: Selected regions -- 7.1 Arctic and Subarctic -- 7.1.1 Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society -- 7.1.2 Political and economic situation in the region -- 7.1.3 Conclusions -- 7.2 Southern Europe and North Africa -- 7.2.1 Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society -- 7.2.2 Political and economic situation in the region -- 7.2.3 Conclusions -- 7.3 Sahel zone -- 7.3.1 Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society -- 7.3.2 Political and economic situation in the region -- 7.3.3 Conclusions -- 7.4 Southern Africa -- 7.4.1 Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society -- 7.4.2 Political and economic situation in the region -- 7.4.3 Conclusions -- 7.5 Central Asia -- 7.5.1 Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society -- 7.5.2 Political and economic situation in the region -- 7.5.3 Conclusions -- 7.6 India, Pakistan and Bangladesh -- 7.6.1 Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society -- 7.6.2 Political and economic situation in the region -- 7.6.3 Conclusions -- 7.7 China -- 7.7.1 Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society -- 7.7.2 Political and economic situation in the region -- 7.7.3 Conclusions -- 7.8 Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. , 7.8.1 Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society -- 7.8.2 Political and economic situation in the region -- 7.8.3 Conclusions -- 7.9 Andes region -- 7.9.1 Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society -- 7.9.2 Political and economic situation in the region -- 7.9.3 Conclusions -- 7.10 Amazon region -- 7.10.1 Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society -- 7.10.2 Political and economic situation in the region -- 7.10.3 Conclusions -- 8 Climate change as a driver of social destabilization and threat to international security -- 8.1 Climate-induced conflict constellations: Analysis and findings -- 8.1.1 Key factors determining the emergence and amplification of conflicts -- 8.1.2 Reciprocal amplification of conflict constellations -- 8.1.3 The new quality of conflicts induced by climate change -- 8.2 International climate policy scenarios and their long-term implications -- 8.2.1 'Green Business As Usual' scenario: Too little, too late, too slow -- 8.2.2 'International Policy Failure' scenario: Collapse of the multilateral climate regime -- 8.2.3 'Strong Climate Policy' scenario: Compliance with the 2°C guard rail -- 8.3 Climate change as a threat to international security -- 8.3.1 Possible increase in the number of destabilized states as a result of climate change -- 8.3.2 Risks for global economic development -- 8.3.3 Risks of growing distributional conflicts between the main drivers of climate change and those most affected -- 8.3.4 Climate change undermines human rights: Calling emitters to account -- 8.3.5 Climate change triggers and intensifies migration -- 8.3.6 Climate change overstretches classic security policy -- 8.3.7 Summary: Overstretching the capacities of the global governance system -- 9 Research recommendations -- 9.1 Understanding the climate-security nexus - fundamentals. , 9.1.1 Climate research.

Note: Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- List of Figures and Tables -- List of Contributors -- Foreword 1 -- Foreword 2 -- List of Acronyms and Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Vulnerability Research and Assessment to Support Adaptation and Mitigation: Common Themes from the Diversity of Approaches -- Chapter 2 The House is Both Empty and Sad: Social Vulnerability, Environmental Disturbance, Economic Change and the Irish Potato Famine -- Chapter 3 Vulnerability Assessments in the Developed World: The UK and Norway -- Chapter 4 Vulnerability Assessments in the Developing World: Mozambique and South Africa -- Chapter 5 Global Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: Experience from DINAS-COAST -- Chapter 6 Our Vulnerability to Changes in Ecosystem Services -- Chapter 7 Assessing Vulnerability of Human Health -- Chapter 8 Mapping Double Exposure to Climate Change and Trade Liberalization as an Awareness-Raising Tool -- Chapter 9 An Agent-Based Framework for Assessing Vulnerability Futures -- Chapter 10 Assessing Financial and Economic Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Bridging the Gap between Scientific Assessment and the Implementation of Disaster Risk Management with the CatSim Model -- Chapter 11 Evaluation of a Stakeholder Dialogue on European Vulnerability to Global Change -- Chapter 12 Defining Dangerous Climate Change: The Beijing Exercise -- Chapter 13 A Framework for Analysing Methodologies of Vulnerability Assessments -- Index.

Note: Cover -- Titel -- Zum Buch -- Über die Autoren -- Impressum -- Inhalt -- Einleitung -- 1. Aus der Klimageschichte lernen -- Klimaarchive -- Was bestimmt das Klima? -- Die Frühgeschichte der Erde -- Klimawandel über Jahrmillionen -- Eine plötzliche Warmphase -- Die Eiszeitzyklen -- Abrupte Klimawechsel -- Das Klima des Holozän -- Einige Folgerungen -- 2. Die globale Erwärmung -- Etwas Geschichte -- Der Treibhauseffekt -- Der Anstieg der Treibhausgaskonzentration -- Der Anstieg der Temperatur -- Die Ursachen der Erwärmung -- Die Klimasensitivität -- Projektionen für die Zukunft -- Wie sicher sind die Aussagen? -- Zusammenfassung -- 3. Die Folgen des Klimawandels -- Der Gletscherschwund -- Rückgang des polaren Meereises -- Tauen des Permafrosts -- Die Eisschilde in Grönland und der Antarktis -- Der Anstieg des Meeresspiegels -- Änderung der Meeresströmungen -- Wetterextreme -- Auswirkungen auf Ökosysteme -- Landwirtschaft und Ernährungssicherheit -- Ausbreitung von Krankheiten -- Zusammenfassung -- 4. Klimawandel in der öffentlichen Diskussion -- Die Klimadiskussion in den USA -- Die Lobby der «Klimaskeptiker» -- Zuverlässige Informationsquellen -- Zusammenfassung -- 5. Die Lösung des Klimaproblems -- Vermeiden, Anpassen oder Ignorieren? -- Gibt es den optimalen Klimawandel? -- Globale Zielvorgaben -- Der Gestaltungsraum für Klimalösungen -- Das Kyoto-Protokoll -- Der WBGU-Pfad zur Nachhaltigkeit -- Anpassungsversuche -- Die Koalition der Freiwilligen oder «Leading by Example» -- Der Pariser Klimavertrag -- Epilog: Der Geist in der Flasche -- Quellen und Anmerkungen -- Literaturempfehlungen -- Sachregister -- Der Mueller-Gletscher auf der Südinsel Neuseelands -- Weltkarte der fossilen CO2-Emissionen der Länder 2016.

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