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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A Bayesian algorithm for global optimization (1984)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 111-128 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Global optimization ; Bayesian nonparametric inference ; random distributions ; cluster analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A crucial step in global optimization algorithms based on random sampling in the search domain is decision about the achievement of a prescribed accuracy. In order to overcome the difficulties related to such a decision, the Bayesian Nonparametric Approach has been introduced. The aim of this paper is to show the effectiveness of the approach when an ad hoc clustering technique is used for obtaining promising starting points for a local search algorithm. Several test problems are considered.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01876142
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
    Fulltext
  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A different intensity recording for reducing the uncertainty in its assessment: An application to the completeness analysis of earthquake catalogues (1994)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 10 (1994), S. 47-58 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Seismic intensity assessment ; diffuse information ; mixture of multinomial distributions ; completeness degree of a catalogue ; simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The purpose of this paper is to emphasize the consequences of the ordinal and qualitative nature of seismic intensity regarding its recording. The classical way of recording by an integer value implies that on many occasions it can be difficult to associate only one intensity degree to an event. Therefore, we propose to record the intensity in a new way so that the expert is no longer restricted to indicating only one value, but can express his belief that the considered event belongs to any one of the intensity classes in the scale. Following this approach, as an example, we study the completeness of the Sannio-Matese catalogue and show how the degree of completeness changes according to the degree of uncertainty in intensity assessment.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00643440
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 3
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    Retrospective validation of renewal-based, medium-term earthquake forecasts (2013)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-09-10
    Description: In this paper, some methods for scoring the performances of an earthquake forecasting probability model are applied retrospectively for different goals. The time-dependent occurrence probabilities of a renewal process are tested against earthquakes of M w ≥ 5.3 recorded in Italy according to decades of the past century. An aim was to check the capability of the model to reproduce the data by which the model was calibrated. The scoring procedures used can be distinguished on the basis of the requirement (or absence) of a reference model and of probability thresholds. Overall, a rank-based score, information gain, gambling scores, indices used in binary predictions and their loss functions are considered. The definition of various probability thresholds as percentages of the hazard functions allows proposals of the values associated with the best forecasting performance as alarm level in procedures for seismic risk mitigation. Some improvements are then made to the input data concerning the completeness of the historical catalogue and the consistency of the composite seismogenic sources with the hypotheses of the probability model. Another purpose of this study was thus to obtain hints on what is the most influential factor and on the suitability of adopting the consequent changes of the data sets. This is achieved by repeating the estimation procedure of the occurrence probabilities and the retrospective validation of the forecasts obtained under the new assumptions. According to the rank-based score, the completeness appears to be the most influential factor, while there are no clear indications of the usefulness of the decomposition of some composite sources, although in some cases, it has led to improvements of the forecast.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 4
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    Erratum: Retrospective validation of renewal-based, medium-term earthquake forecasts (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-01-09
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 5
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    The new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19) (2021)
    In:  Annals of Geophysics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: We describe the main structure and outcomes of the new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosità Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline the probabilistic framework adopted, the multitude of new data that have been made available after the preparation of the previous MPS04, and the set of earthquake rate and ground motion models used, we give particular emphasis to the main novelties of the modeling and the MPS19 outcomes. Specifically, we (i) introduce a novel approach to estimate and to visualize the epistemic uncertainty over the whole country; (ii) assign weights to each model components (earthquake rate and ground motion models) according to a quantitative testing phase and structured experts’ elicitation sessions; (iii) test (retrospectively) the MPS19 outcomes with the horizontal peak ground acceleration observed in the last decades, and the macroseismic intensities of the last centuries; (iv) introduce a pioneering approach to build MPS19_cluster, which accounts for the effect of earthquakes that have been removed by declustering. Finally, to make the interpretation of MPS19 outcomes easier for a wide range of possible stakeholders, we represent the final result also in terms of probability to exceed 0.15 g in 50 years.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 6
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    The role of the urban system dysfunction in the assessment of seismic risk in the Mt. Etna area (Italy) (2015)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-08
    Description: A procedure for seismic risk assessment is applied to the Mt. Etna area (eastern Sicily, Italy) through assessment of urban system dysfunction following the occurrence of an earthquake.The tool used is based on the Disruption Index as a concept implemented in Simulator QuakeIST, which defines urban disruption following a natural disaster. The first element of the procedure is the definition of the seismic input, which is based on information about historical seismicity and seismogenic faults. The second element is computation of seismic impact on the building stock and infrastructure in the area considered. Information on urban-scale vulnerability was collected and a geographic information system was used to organise the data relating to buildings and network systems (e.g., building stock, schools, strategic structures, lifelines). The central idea underlying the definition of the Disruption Index is identification and evaluation of the impact on a target community through the physical elements that most contribute to severe disruption. The procedure applied in this study (i.e., software and data) constitutes a very useful operational tool to drive the development of strategies to minimise risks from earthquakes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1979–2008
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Seismic impact ; Disruption index ; Urban system ; Risk measures ; Mt. Etna area (Italy) ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    Forecasting macroseismic scenarios through anisotropic attenuation: a Bayesian approach (2011)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-01
    Description: In this work we aim at two objects: quantifying, by a binomial-beta probabilistic model, the uncertainty involved in the assessment of the intensity decay, an ordinal quantity often incorrectly treated as real variable, and, given the finite dimension of the fault, modelling non-symmetric decays but exploiting information collected from previous studies on symmetric cases. To this end we transform the plane so that the ellipse having the fault length as maximum axis is changed into a circle with fixed diameter. We start from an explorative analysis of a set of macroseismic fields representative of the Italian seismicity among which we identify three different decay trends by applying a hierarchical clustering method. Then we focus on the exam of the seismogenic area of Etna volcano where some fault structures are well recognizable as well as the anisotropic trend of the attenuation. As in volcanic zones the seismic attenuation is much quicker than in other zones, we first shrink and then transform the plane so that the decay becomes again symmetric. Following the Bayesian paradigm we update the model parameters and associate the estimated values of the intensity at site with the corresponding locations in the original plane. Backward validation and comparison with the deterministic law are also presented.
    Description: This work was funded by the Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile in the frame of the 2007-2009 Agreement with Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) - Project V4 FLANK Volcanology.
    Description: Published
    Description: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Colmenarejo Campus, on July 5th-8th, 2010
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: open
    Keywords: anisotropy ; Bayesian inference ; seismic attenuation ; Etna volcano ; Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Extended abstract
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  • 8
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    Stress releasemodel and proxy measures of earthquake size. Application to Italian seismogenic sources (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: This study presents a series of self-correcting models that are obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release model are analyzed, in which the evolution of the system over time is represented by the level of strain, moment, seismic energy, or energy scaled by the moment. We carry out the analysis on a regional basis by subdividing the study area into eight tectonically coherent regions. In each region, we reconstruct the seismic history and statistically evaluate the completeness of the resulting seismic catalog. Following the Bayesian paradigm, we apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain parameter estimates and a measure of their uncertainty expressed by the simulated posterior distribution. The comparison of the four models through the Bayes factor and an information criterion provides evidence (to different degrees depending on the region) in favor of the stress release model based on the energy and the scaled energy. Therefore, among the quantities considered, this turns out to be the measure of the size of an earthquake to use in stress release models. At any instant, the time to the next event turns out to follow a Gompertz distribution, with a shape parameter that depends on time through the value of the conditional intensity at that instant. In light of this result, the issue of forecasting is tackled through both retrospective and prospective approaches. Retrospectively, the forecasting procedure is carried out on the occurrence times of the events recorded in each region, to determine whether the stress release model reproduces the observations used in the estimation procedure. Prospectively, the estimates of the time to the next event are compared with the dates of the earthquakes that occurred after the end of the learning catalog, in the 2003–2012 decade.
    Description: Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile in the framework of the 2007–2009 Agreement with Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), project S1: Analysis of the seismic potential in Italy for the evaluation of the seismic hazard.
    Description: Published
    Description: 147-168
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: point process ; probabilistic forecasting ; interevent time distribution ; seismogenic sources ; Bayesian inference ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
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    PROBABILISTIC PROCEDURE TO ESTIMATE THE MACROSEISMIC INTENSITY ATTENUATION IN THE ITALIAN VOLCANIC DISTRICTS (2008)
    14 WCEE
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-01
    Description: In Italian volcanic areas, we apply a probabilistic procedure for Macroseismic Intensity Attenuation estimates. The procedure, following the Bayesian approach, allows to exploit additional information on historical earthquakes. The method, given the epicentral intensity and the site epicenter distance, begins from selected earthquakes intensity data points and ends at the assessment of the intensity (Is) probability distribution at a site. Our probabilistic method provides a probability function matrix that can be directly applied for the computation of probabilistic seismic hazard at the site.
    Description: China Earthquake Administratio; Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, China; International Association for Earthquake Engineering (IAEE); Chinese Association of Earthquake Engineering (CAEE)
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Beijing, China
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica
    Description: open
    Keywords: Attenuation ; macroseismic intensity ; probability of the intensity at a site ; seismic hazard assessment ; Italian volcanic districts ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 10
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    Urban Disaster-Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-14
    Description: This contribution presents the general framework of the European project UPStrat-MAFA "Urban disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources" and its ongoing activities. A unique probabilistic procedure is being used for seismic hazard evaluation, using both macroseismic fields and characteristics of fault sources for the analysis of data from volcanic and tectonic areas: Mt. Etna, Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy), Azores Islands (Portugal), South Iceland (Iceland), Alicante-Murcia (Spain), and mainland and offshore Portugal. An improvement of urban scale vulnerability information on building and network systems (typologies, schools, strategic buildings, lifelines, and others) is proposed in the form of a global Disruption Index, with the objective to provide a systematic way of measuring earthquake impact in urbanized areas considered as complex networks. Disaster prevention strategies are considered based on an education information system, another effective component of the disaster risk reduction given by long-term activities.
    Description: Co-financed by the EU - Civil Protection Financial Instrument, in the framework the European project ”Urban disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources (Acronym: UPStrat-MAFA, Grant Agreement N. 23031/2011/613486/SUB/A5). http://ec.europa.eu/echo/funding/cp_projects2011_en.htm
    Description: Published
    Description: Lisbon - Portugal
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: open
    Keywords: Probabilistic hazard ; seismic risk ; urban disaster prevention strategies ; UPStrat-MAFA ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 05. General::05.03. Educational, History of Science, Public Issues::05.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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