Description: Nearly 50 years ago Bjerknes1 suggested that the character of large-scale air–sea interaction over the mid-latitude North Atlantic Ocean differs with timescales: the atmosphere was thought to drive directly most short-term—interannual—sea surface temperature (SST) variability, and the ocean to contribute significantly to long-term—multidecadal—SST and potentially atmospheric variability. Although the conjecture for short timescales is well accepted, understanding Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) of SST2, 3 remains a challenge as a result of limited ocean observations. AMV is nonetheless of major socio-economic importance because it is linked to important climate phenomena such as Atlantic hurricane activity and Sahel rainfall, and it hinders the detection of anthropogenic signals in the North Atlantic sector4, 5, 6. Direct evidence of the oceanic influence of AMV can only be provided by surface heat fluxes, the language of ocean–atmosphere communication. Here we provide observational evidence that in the mid-latitude North Atlantic and on timescales longer than 10 years, surface turbulent heat fluxes are indeed driven by the ocean and may force the atmosphere, whereas on shorter timescales the converse is true, thereby confirming the Bjerknes conjecture. This result, although strongest in boreal winter, is found in all seasons. Our findings suggest that the predictability of mid-latitude North Atlantic air–sea interaction could extend beyond the ocean to the climate of surrounding continents.

Description: Repeated hydrographic observations between 1996 and 2001 of the deep water mass distribution on four sections in the western Labrador Sea and northwestern North Atlantic at about 56°N, 53°N, 48°N and 43°N show significant changes in the water mass characteristics. These changes are spreading southward mainly with the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). Shallower convection forms a convective water mass known as upper Labrador Sea Water (ULSW). During periods of deep convection in the Labrador Sea, ULSW was described to be formed in the western boundary current region. In the post deep convection period 1996 to 2001 ULSW was formed in the western and central Labrador Sea and spreads mainly westward towards and along the western boundary. At 53°N ULSW moves southward as a part of the deep Labrador Current, also constituting the upper part of the DWBC. In the early 1990s the deep convection produced a large volume of deep Labrador Sea Water (LSW) which filled intermediate layers of the central region of the Labrador Sea. After these years the convection became weaker, with no apparent LSW renewal in 1996, partial mixing down to 1500 m in 1997 and no notable LSW formation between 1998 and 2001. At the southwestern exit of the Labrador Sea at 53°N the deep LSW in 2001 was least in thickness and highest in salinity and temperature compared to the years since 1996. This reflects restratification which resulted in an increase in the density stratification between 1000 and 2000 m in the central Labrador Sea as well as year-to-year transformation of the LSW core. LSW passes 43°N off the Grand Banks about 1 to 2 years after it was first seen at 56°N. At the 48°N and 43°N sections the northward flowing North Atlantic Current (NAC), farther offshore than the DWBC, complicates the property distributions. Saltier and warmer LSW recirculates northward with the NAC at 43°N. Between 1996 and 2001 the Gibbs Fracture Zone Water (GFZW) turned colder and fresher. The Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW) showed two periods of cooling and freshening, separated by an abrupt (rapid) increase in temperature and salinity within a year. The arrival time of this increase at the different locations implies a DSOW spreading time that is no more than two years from 56°N to 43°N near the western boundary, or four years from the sill of the Denmark Strait to the Grand Banks.