Publication Date:
2021-05-19
Description:
This report presents the integrated case study for Egypt carried out under an OECD project on
Development and Climate Change. The report is structured around a three-tiered framework. First, recent
climate trends and climate change scenarios for Egypt are assessed and key sectoral impacts are identified
and ranked along multiple indicators to establish priorities for adaptation. Second, donor portfolios are
analyzed to examine the proportion of development assistance activities affected by climate risks. A desk
analysis of donor strategies and project documents as well as national plans is conducted to assess the
degree of attention to climate change concerns in development planning and assistance. Third, an in-depth
analysis is conducted for coastal zones as well as water resource management on the Nile.
Given that Egypt’s population, land-use and agriculture, as well as its economic activity are all
constrained along a narrow T-shaped strip of land along the Nile and the deltaic coast, it is extremely
vulnerable to any adverse impacts on its coastal zones and water availability from the Nile. Climate change
poses significant risks through sea level rise on the costal zone, which is already subsiding at
approximately 3-5mm/year around the Nile delta. Analyses of current climatic trends reveal a warming
trend in recent decades with country averaged mean temperature increases of 1.4°C and 2.5°C projected by
2050 and 2100. Higher temperatures in the semi-arid regions with resulting evaporative losses coupled
with increasing water demands will likely result in decreasing water availability from the Nile. There is
also some possibility of significant decline in Nile streamflow under climate change as a result of changes
in precipitation, although the studies reviewed in this report offer conflicting results. Coastal zone and
water resource impacts have also serious implications for agriculture: sea level rise will adversely impact
prime agricultural land in the Nile delta through inundation and salinization, while the intensive irrigated
agriculture upstream would suffer from any reductions in Nile water availability. Therefore, climate
change is a serious development concern for Egypt.
Egypt receives around $1.5 billion dollars of Official Development Assistance (ODA) annually.
Analysis of donor portfolios for the country using the OECD-World Bank Creditor Reporting System
(CRS) database reveals that roughly 33% of development assistance (by aid amount) or 25% of donor
projects (by number) are in sectors potentially affected by climate change risks. These numbers are only
indicative, and the reader is referred to the main report for a more nuanced interpretation. In general, donor
strategies do not mention climate change – although several stress the concern for water scarcity in Egypt.
Some donor strategies and projects explicitly cater to improved water management and conservation in
Egypt. While not explicitly recognizing climate change, any measures to promote efficiency of water use
would be synergistic with adaptation to the additional stresses on water availability posed by climate
change. In addition, there are a few donor projects on coastal zones. The absence of climate change
concerns in these projects however could be a significant omission, given the local subsidence at several
locations on Egypt’s coast, which would exacerbate the impacts of climate change induced sea level rise
and saline intrusion. Regarding climate change concerns in national planning, despite existing institutions
and assessments, actual implementation of adaptation measures is faced with several obstacles, including
other pressing development priorities such as increasing costs of living, loss of land productivity, as well as
inefficient economic policies such as the heavy subsidies for water, which make its conservation difficult.
The in-depth analysis in this report, which focuses on Egypt’s coastal zones and the Nile water
resources, show that Egypt has already conducted fairly rigorous coastal zones vulnerability and impact
assessments and has already started several coastal protection activities to improve the resilience to sealevel
rise. However, such actions are largely restricted to “hard” adaptation, and – relative to the magnitude
of the problem – are still fairly limited in their coverage of vulnerable areas. Thus, there is both a need for
greater coverage of vulnerability assessment and coastal protection activities, as well as to broaden the
portfolio of responses beyond hard adaptation. In particular, there is a need to directly address several
development and demographic pressures that exacerbate coastal vulnerability – particularly coastal
pollution. There is also a need to better implement existing laws that reduce coastal vulnerability and the
formulation of new regulations that correct distortions and other activities which might exacerbate coastal
vulnerability to sea level rise.
Adaptation options for Egypt’s water resources meanwhile are closely intertwined with Egypt’s
development choices and pathways. Any changes in water supply due to climate change over the medium
term will occur alongside the certainty of increased demographic pressures (the national population is
growing by 1 million every nine months) as well as the potential increases in Nile water abstractions by the
upstream riparian countries. Adapting to climate change will have close resonance with adapting to water
scarcity and is likely to require implementation of water demand management strategies which may require
capacity building and awareness raising across institutions and society. Adaptation measures on the
supply-side include ways to improve rain-harvesting techniques, increasing extraction of ground water,
water recycling, desalination, and improving water transportation. In addition, regular reviewing and
updating of drought responses and research into improved long-term forecasting is essential to enhance
Egypt’s ability to cope with prolonged drought.
This case study also highlights the importance of the trans-boundary dimension in addressing
climate change adaptation, given the need for dialog and cooperation among the Nile Basin states to
address both technical issues such as sharing of data, as well as more political and sensitive ones such as
water allocation. The recently established Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is a first step. If successfully
implemented, such an initiative can help reconcile the water use and development priorities of all riparian
countries, including their capacity to adapt to any reductions or other changes in Nile flows from climate
change. However, it is too early to assess the effectiveness of the NBI, given that it has been in existence
for only a few years. Nevertheless, it marks an important beginning in terms of providing a cooperative
forum to reconcile the water needs, development aspirations, and climate change concerns, not only of
Egypt but of all the Nile Basin countries.
Description:
OECD
Description:
Unpublished
Keywords:
Climate change
;
Coastal zone
Repository Name:
AquaDocs
Type:
Working Paper
,
Non-Refereed
Format:
1156761 bytes
Format:
application/pdf
Permalink