Note: Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Part 1: State-of-the-art Observations for Advancing TC Research -- 1: Advancing the Understanding and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones Using Aircraft Observations -- 1. Introduction -- 2. P-3 Aircraft -- 3. Flight-level Observations -- 4. Airborne Expendables -- a. GPS Dropwindsondes -- b. Expendable Ocean Probes -- 5. Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) -- 6. Airborne Doppler Radar -- 7. Improved Use of Observations: Hurricane Forecast and Improvement Programme (HFIP) -- a. Improving Initialization -- b. Improved Model Evaluation -- 8. Future Observing Technologies -- 9. Conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- REFERENCES -- 2: Use of Satellite Observations in Tropical Cyclone Studies -- 1. Overview -- 2. Visible/Infrared Sensors -- 3. Microwave Sensors -- 3.1 Passive Microwave Sensors -- 3.2 Active Microwave Sensors -- 3.3 Microwave Sounders -- 4. Some Interesting Applications of Satellite Data in Tropical Cyclone Research -- 4.1a Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis Based on Infrared Images -- 4.1b Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Scatterometer Observations -- 4.2 Initialization of Cyclonic Vortex in NWP Models -- 4.3 Assimilation of Satellite Observations of Atmospheric Ozone in NWP Models -- REFERENCES -- Part 2: Advances in Numerical Weather Predictions for Tropical Cyclones -- 3: Overview of the NOAA/NCEP Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) Modelling System -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Atmospheric Model Components of HWRF -- 2.1 Dynamic Core and Model Equations -- 2.2 Moving Nest Algorithm -- 2.3 Terrain Treatment and Topography -- 2.4 Fine Grid Initialization and Mass Balancing -- 2.5 Lateral Boundary Conditions -- 2.6 Nest-to-Parent Feedback -- 3. HWRF Vortex Initialization and Relocation -- 3.1 HWRF Cycling System. , 3.2 Bogus Vortex Used to Correct Weak Storms -- 3.3 Improvement of Vortex Representation: Storm Size Correction -- 3.4 Improvement of Vortex Representation: Storm Intensity Correction -- 4. HWRF Data Assimilation System (HDAS) -- 4.1 Hybrid EnKF-3DVAR Algorithm -- 5. Physics in the HWRF Model -- 5.1 Surface Layer Physics Parameterization -- 5.2 Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Parameterization -- 5.3 Land Surface Model: The GFDL Slab Model -- 5.4 Radiation Parameterization: GFDL Radiation Scheme -- 5.5 Cumulus Parameterization: The Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS) Scheme -- 5.6 Microphysics Parameterization: The Ferrier Microphysics Scheme -- 6. Performance of the Operational HWRF -- 6.1 HWRF Model Performance for the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Basins -- 6.2 HWRF Model Performance for the North Western Pacific Basin -- 6.3 HWRF Model Performance for the North Indian Ocean Basin -- 7. Summary and Future Work -- Acknowledgements -- REFERENCES -- 4: Physical Processes in Tropical Cyclone Models -- 1. An Overview of Physical Processes Required to be Included in TC Models -- 1.1 Importance of Cloud Parameterization in TC Models -- 1.2 Cloud Microphysics Parameterization -- 1.3 General Concepts in Sub-Grid Cloud Parameterization -- 1.4 Other Physical Processes in TC Models -- 2. Sensitivity of Simulated TC Intensification to Parameterized Physical Processes -- 2.1 Experimental Design -- 2.2 Metrics for Comparing the Sensitivity Experiments -- 2.3 Results -- 3. Summary and Discussion -- Acknowledgements -- REFERENCES -- 5: Sub-Grid Vertical Turbulent Mixing in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer -- 1. Parameterization of Sub-Grid Vertical Turbulent Mixing -- 1.1 Description of Sub-Grid Motions -- 1.2 Grid-resolved Variables and Sub-Grid Turbulent Fluxes -- 1.3 A Diagnostic Local Mixing Parameterization -- 1.4 Prognostic Mixing Parameterizations. , 1.5 Non-Local Mixing Parameterizations -- 1.6 Summary and Final Remarks -- 2. A Non-sigular Realization of the 1.5-Order TKE Scheme with Prognostic Mixing Length -- 2.1 The Vertical Turbulent Mixing Scheme -- 2.2 The Closure Constants of the η2l Equation -- 2.3 Constraints on the Length Scale -- Acknowledgements -- REFERENCES -- 6: Air-Sea Turbulent Flux Parameterizations in Tropical Cyclone Models -- 1. An Overview of Physical Processes near the Air-Sea Interface -- 1.1 Parameterizations of Air-Sea Fluxes under High Wind Conditions -- 1.2 Sea Surface Roughness Parameterization -- 1.3 The Parameterization of Roughness Lengths for Sensible and Latent Heat Fluxes -- 1.4 The Spray Contribution to Sensible and Latent Heat Fluxes from the Ocean -- 2. Parameterizations of Sea-Spray Impact on the Air-Sea Momentum and Heat Fluxes -- 2.1 Dynamical and Thermal Effect of Sea Spray -- 2.2 Parameterization of the Sea-spray Effect on the Heat Fluxes -- 2.3 Parameterization of the Sea-spray Effect on the Momentum Flux -- 2.4 The Physics of the Parameterized Sea-spray Effect -- 2.5 Sensitivity of an NWP Model to the Parameterizations -- 3. Summary and Conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- REFERENCES -- 7: Present State of Knowledge of Electrification and Lightning within Tropical Cyclones and Their Relationships to Microphysics and Storm Intensity -- 1. Lightning Morphology within Tropical Cyclones and Relationships with Storm Intensity -- 2. Lightning, Convection and Microphysics within Tropical Cyclones -- 3. Modelling of Tropical Cyclone Electrification -- REFERENCES -- 8: The Role of Land Surface Processes on Tropical Cyclones: Introduction to Land Surface Models -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Surface Energy Budget -- 2.1 Examples of Energy Balance over Different Landscapes -- 3. Boundary Layer -- 4. Air-surface Exchange -- 5. Land Surface Models. , 6. Challenges in Land Surface Modelling -- Acknowledgements -- REFERENCES -- 9: The Role of Land Surface Processes on Extreme Weather Events: Land Data Assimilation System -- 1. Land Surface and PBL Processes -- 2. Improving Land State Representation Using Land Data Assimilation System -- 3. Impact of Land Data on Monsoon Depressions and Numerical Experiments -- 4. Impact of Improved Land Fields on Mesoscale Convection over Indian Region -- 5. Future Directions -- 6. Summary -- Acknowledgements -- REFERENCES -- 10: Ocean Component of the HWRF Coupled Model and Model Evaluation -- 1. Introduction -- 2. History of Ocean Component of Coupled HWRF Model -- 2.1 Configuration of POM-TC -- 2.2 POM-TC Initialization -- 2.3 POM-TC Coupling to the HWRF Atmosphere (2007-2013 HWRF Operational Implementation) -- 3. Results -- 3.1 Retrospective 2013 Version HWRF-POM-TC Model Forecast Analysis -- 3.2 Retrospective 2013 Version HWRF-POM-TC Model Ocean Analysis -- 3.3 Hurricane Earl -- 3.4 Hurricane Igor -- 3.5 Hurricane Irene -- 3.6 Subsurface Ocean Temperature Analysis (Hurricane Irene) -- 3.7 AXBT Summary -- 4. Summary -- Annexure 1: Description of MPIPOM-TC -- Annexure 2: Model Initialization and Configuration (MPIPOM-TC) -- Annexure 3: Model Evaluation (MPIPOM-TC) -- REFERENCES -- Part 3: Advanced Assimilation and Vortex Initialization Techniques -- 11: Introduction to Data Assimilation Techniques and Ensemble Kalman Filter -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Purpose of Data Assimilation -- 3. Quality Control (QC) of Meteorological Observations -- 4. Definition and Notations Used in Data Assimilation -- 5. Minimization Algorithms -- 5.1 Cost Function -- 5.2 Newton Algorithm -- 5.3 Quasi-Newton Algorithm -- 6. Different Methods of Assimilation -- 6.1 The Optimal Least-Squares Estimator -- 6.2 Variational Approach-3DVAR -- 6.3 Variational Approach-4DVAR. , 6.4 Kalman Filter (KF) -- 6.5 Ensemble KF (EnKF) -- REFERENCES -- 12: Data Assimilation and Predictability of Tropical Cyclones -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Why Lack of Progress in Intensity Forecast? -- 3. Ensemble Performance and Predictability -- 3.1 EnKF for Limited-area Models: Assimilation of Doppler Radar Observations -- 3.2 Hurricane Initialization and Prediction Using Doppler Radar Observation with EnKF -- 3.3 Summary on Performance of the EnKF Assimilation of Inner-core Airborne Doppler Radar Observations (Zhang et al., 2011) -- 3.4 Hurricane Predictability under Different Shear(Zhang and Tao, 2013) -- 4. Conclusions -- REFERENCES -- 13: Data Assimilation: Comparison and Hybridization between Ensemble and Variational Methods -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Basic Algorithms of 3DVAR, 4DVAR and EnKF -- 2.1 Variational Algorithms -- 2.2 EnKF Algorithm -- 3. Advantages and Limitations of Different Data Assimilation Methods -- 3.1 Advantages and Limitations of Variational Assimilation System -- 3.2 Advantages and Limitations of Ensemble Assimilation System -- 4. Inter-comparison of 3DVAR, 4DVAR and EnKF -- 4.1 Experimental Design -- 4.2 Results and Discussion -- 5. Coupling and Hybrid of EnKF with 3DVAR/4DVAR -- 5.1 Hybrid Formulation within WRF-Var -- 5.2 Comparison of Different Assimilation Methods -- Conclusions -- REFERENCES -- Part 4: Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones -- 14: Operational ACCESS-TC: Vortex Specification, 4DVAR Initialization, Verification and Structure Diagnostics -- 1. Introduction -- 2. System Configuration -- 3. Vortex Specification and Validation -- 4. 4DVAR Initialization -- 5. Verification -- 6. Illustrative Example of Forecast Vortex Structure Change: TC Yasi -- 7. Summary and Future Plans -- REFERENCES -- 15: Physical Initialization in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting -- 1. Introduction -- 1.1 Yanai Fluxes. , 1.2 Reverse Similarity Theory.