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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Vorhabenbezeichnung: Probalistic Verification of decadal forecasts using Simulators and mature CDRs PROVESIMAC : Abschlussbericht zum MiKliP II Module E : Teilprojekt WP E8 PROVESIMAC : Berichtszeitraum: 01.09.2015 bis 31.12.2018 (2019)
    [Bonn] : [Universität Bonn, Meteorologisches Institut]
    Details Availability
    Keywords: Forschungsbericht ; Klima ; Modell
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten, 2,72 MB) , Illustrationen, Diagramme
    URL: https://doi.org/10.2314/KXP:1749361744
    DOI: 10.2314/KXP:1749361744
    Language: German
    Note: Förderkennzeichen BMBF 01LP1520G , Verbundnummer 01163753 , Autoren dem Berichtsblatt entnommen , Unterschiede zwischen dem gedruckten Dokument und der elektronischen Ressource können nicht ausgeschlossen werden , Sprache der Zusammenfassungen: Deutsch, Englisch
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Final report of DeepRain project : = Abschlußbericht des DeepRain Projektes (2022)
    Jülich : Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Zentralbibliothek, Verlag
    Details Availability
    Keywords: Hochschulschrift ; Deutschland ; Niederschlag ; Karte ; Hochauflösendes Verfahren ; Supercomputer ; Wettervorhersage
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (77 Seiten, 11,32 MB) , Illustrationen, Diagramme
    ISBN: 9783958066755
    Series Statement: Schriften des Forschungszentrums Jülich Band/volume 51
    URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/33144
    URL: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0001-2023013106
    URN: urn:nbn:de:0001-2023013106
    Language: English , German
    Note: Förderkennzeichen BMBF 01IS18047 A-E , Verbundnummer 01184378 , Laufzeit: October, 1st, 2018-March, 31st, 2022/1. Oktober 2018 bis 31. März 2022 , Literaturangaben , Text englisch und deutsch, Zusammenfassungen englisch und deutsch
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Abschlussbericht zu VeCAP-DWD und VeCAP-MIUB : = Final report of VeCAP-DWD and VeCAP-MIUB (2016)
    Offenbach : Deutscher Wetterdienst
    Details Availability
    Keywords: Forschungsbericht ; Klima ; Prognose ; Modell
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 Seiten, 6,55 MB) , Diagramme, Karten
    URL: https://edocs.tib.eu/files/e01fb17/879378298.pdf
    URL: https://doi.org/10.2314/GBV:879378298
    DOI: 10.2314/GBV:879378298
    Language: German
    Note: Förderkennzeichen BMBF 01LP1155A-B. - Verbund-Nummer 01100385 , Paralleltitel dem englischen Berichtsblatt entnommen , Unterschiede zwischen dem gedruckten Dokument und der elektronischen Ressource können nicht ausgeschlossen werden , Mit deutscher und englischer Zusammenfassung
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Northern hemisphere atmospheric response to changes of atlantic ocean SST on decadal time scales: a GCM experiment (1990)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 4 (1990), S. 157-174 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Analyses indicate that the Atlantic Ocean seasurface temperature (SST) was considerably colder at the beginning than in the middle of the century. In parallel, a systematic change in the North Atlantic sea-level pressure (SLP) pattern was observed. To find out whether the SST and SLP changes analyzed are consistent, which would indicate that the SST change was real and not an instrumental artifact, a response experiment with a low-resolution (T21) atmospheric GCM was performed. Two perpetual January simulations were conducted, which differ solely in the Atlantic Ocean (40° S-60° N) SST: the “cold” simulation utilizes the SSTs for the period 1904–1913; the “warm” simulation uses the SSTs for the period 1951–1960. Also, a “control” run with the model's standard SST somewhat between the “cold” and “warm” SST was made. For the response analysis, a rigorous statistical approach was taken. First, the null hypothesis of identical horizontal distributions was subjected to a multivariate significance test. Second, the level of recurrence was estimated. The multivariate statistical approaches are based on hierarchies of test models. We examined three different hierarchies: a scale-dependent hierarchy based on spherical harmonics (S), and two physically motivated ones, one based on the barotropic normal modes of the mean 300 hPa flow (B) and one based on the eigenmodes of the advection diffusion operator at 1000 hPa (A). The intercomparison of the “cold” and “warm” experiments indicates a signal in the geostrophic stream function that in the S-hierarchy is significantly nonzero and highly recurrent. In the A-hierarchy, the low level temperature field is identified as being significantly and recurrently affected by the altered SST distribution. The SLP signal is reasonably similar to the SLP change observed. Unexpectedly, the upper level stream-function signal does not appear to be significantly nonzero in the B-hierarchy. If, however, the pairs of experiments “warm versus control” and “cold versus control” are examined in the B-hierarchy, a highly significant and recurrent signal emerges. We conclude that the “cold versus warm” response is not a “small disturbance” that would allow the signal to be described by eigenmodes of the linear system. An analysis of the three-dimensional structure of the signal leads to the hypothesis that two different mechanisms are acting to modify the model's mean state. At low levels, local heating and advection are dominant, but at upper levels the extratropical signal is a remote responce to modifications of the tropical convection.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00209519
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The effect of an arctic polynya on the Northern Hemisphere mean circulation and eddy regime: a numerical experiment (1992)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 7 (1992), S. 155-163 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The feedback of an arctic polynya, which is a large ice-free zone within the sea ice, on the hemispheric climate is studied with the ECMWF T21 GCM. For this purpose a control and an anomaly integration, in which a polynya was introduced in the Kara Sea, are compared. As the GCM, like the real atmosphere, shows a high level of low frequency variability, the mean response to the changed boundary conditions is obscured by internal noise. The necessary significance analyses are thus performed to enhance the signal-tonoise ratio within the framework of an a priori chosen guess pattern and a multivariate test statistic. The sensible and latent heat fluxes increased above the polynya, which resulted in a warming of the lower troposphere above and near the polynya. No statistically significant local or global sea-level pressure changes are associated with this heating. However we find a significant change of hemispheric extent of the geopotential fields at 300 hPa, if we use as guess patterns the eigenmodes of the barotropic vorticity equation. The different mean flow field is accompanied by significant changes of the synoptic transient eddy field. We find a significant variation in the barotropic and baroclinic forcing of the mean flow by the eddies, a change in the location and intensity of the storm tracks and in the conversion between eddy available and eddy kinetic energy. The additional heat flux from the polynya results in a reduction of the meridional heat flux by the synoptic eddies on the western Atlantic.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00211157
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  • 6
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    Initialization and ensemble generation for decadal climate predictions: A comparison of different methods (2019)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11 . pp. 149-172.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-01-31
    Description: Five initialization and ensemble generation methods are investigated with respect to their impact on the prediction skill of the German decadal prediction system "Mittelfristige Klimaprognose" (MiKlip). Among the tested methods, three tackle aspects of model‐consistent initialization using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the filtered anomaly initialization (FAI) and the initialization method by partially coupled spin‐up (MODINI). The remaining two methods alter the ensemble generation: the ensemble dispersion filter (EDF) corrects each ensemble member with the ensemble mean during model integration. And the bred vectors (BV) perturb the climate state using the fastest growing modes. The new methods are compared against the latest MiKlip system in the low‐resolution configuration (Preop‐LR), which uses lagging the climate state by a few days for ensemble generation and nudging toward ocean and atmosphere reanalyses for initialization. Results show that the tested methods provide an added value for the prediction skill as compared to Preop‐LR in that they improve prediction skill over the eastern and central Pacific and different regions in the North Atlantic Ocean. In this respect, the EnKF and FAI show the most distinct improvements over Preop‐LR for surface temperatures and upper ocean heat content, followed by the BV, the EDF and MODINI. However, no single method exists that is superior to the others with respect to all metrics considered. In particular, all methods affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in different ways, both with respect to the basin‐wide long‐term mean and variability, and with respect to the temporal evolution at the 26° N latitude.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1029/2018MS001439
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
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