Note: Intro -- Contents -- 1 Hurricane Characteristics -- 1.1 Descriptions -- 1.2 Definitions -- 1.3 Environment -- 2 Hurricane Categories and Impacts -- 2.1 Life Cycle -- 2.2 The Saffir/Simpson Scale -- 2.3 Storm Surge -- 2.4 Hurricane Tornadoes -- 2.5 Subtropical Cyclones -- 2.6 Tropical Only Hurricanes -- 2.7 Baroclinically Enhanced Hurricanes -- 2.8 On Frogs and Hurricanes -- 2.9 Extratropical Cyclones -- 3 Hurricane Climate Data -- 3.1 Data Sources -- 3.2 Technological Advances -- 3.3 Classifications -- 3.4 Proxy Data -- 4 North Atlantic Hurricanes -- 4.1 Abundance -- 4.2 Season Length -- 4.3 Intensity and Duration -- 4.4 Origin -- 4.5 Tracks -- 4.6 Dissipation -- 5 Tropical Only Hurricanes -- 5.1 Designation -- 5.2 Abundance -- 5.3 Season Length -- 5.4 Intensity and Duration -- 5.5 Origin -- 5.6 Tracks -- 5.7 Dissipation -- 6 Baroclinically Enhanced Hurricanes -- 6.1 Middle Latitude Influence -- 6.2 Abundance -- 6.3 Season Length -- 6.4 Intensity and Duration -- 6.5 Origin -- 6.6 Tracks -- 6.7 Dissipation -- 6.8 Baroclinically Initiated Hurricanes -- 7 Major Hurricanes -- 7.1 Maximum Intensity -- 7.2 Abundance -- 7.3 Season Length -- 7.4 Origin and Dissipation -- 7.5 Duration -- 7.6 Tracks -- 7.7 Major U.S. Hurricanes -- 8 U.S. Hurricanes -- 8.1 Data Sources -- 8.2 Landfalls -- 8.3 Frequencies -- 8.4 Relation to Basin-Wide Activity -- 8.5 Decadal Variability -- 8.6 Annual and Seasonal Frequencies -- 8.7 Landfalls by Category -- 8.8 Preferred Paths -- 9 Hurricanes of Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and Bermuda -- 9.1 Hurricanes of Puerto Rico -- 9.2 Hurricanes of Jamaica -- 9.3 Hurricanes of Bermuda -- 10 Hurricane Cycles and Trends -- 10.1 Time Series Analysis -- 10.2 Superposed Epochs -- 10.3 Hurricane Trends -- 11 Hurricane Return Periods -- 11.1 Recurrence Intervals -- 11.2 Return Periods -- 11.3 Limitations -- 11.4 Trends. , 12 Hurricanes of the Early 1990s -- 12.1 Two Consecutively Active Hurricane Seasons -- 12.2 Comparisons to the Early 1990s -- 12.3 Baroclinically Initiated Hurricanes -- 12.4 Climate Considerations -- 13 History of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting -- 13.1 Physical Relationships -- 13.2 Composite Charts -- 13.3 Satellites and Easterly Waves -- 13.4 Statistical Relationships -- 13.5 Early Prediction Models -- 13.6 Modifications -- 14 Seasonal Forecast Models -- 14.1 Measures of Seasonal Activity -- 14.2 Cross Validation -- 14.3 CSU Regression Models -- 14.4 FSU Regression Models -- 14.5 Poisson Random Process -- 14.6 Probabilistic Prediction -- 15 Sub Basin Forecast Models -- 15.1 Sub Basins and Coastal Regions -- 15.2 Climate Factors -- 15.3 Base Rates and Forecast Accuracy -- 15.4 Discriminant Analysis -- 15.5 Significant Models -- 15.6 Physical Linkages -- 16 Prospects for Extended Range Outlooks -- 16.1 The ARMA Approach -- 16.2 The Iterative Approach -- 16.3 An Experimental Extended Range Forecast -- 16.4 Prospects For Decadal Outlooks -- 17 People at Risk -- 17.1 Deadliest North Atlantic Hurricanes -- 17.2 A Hurricane Problem -- 17.3 County Population Changes -- 17.4 City Population Changes -- 17.5 Projected Population Changes -- 18 Property at Risk -- 18.1 Hurricane Damage -- 18.2 Hurricane Warnings -- 18.3 Costliest U.S. Hurricanes -- 18.4 Damage Costs -- 18.5 Property Values -- 19 Catastrophe Insurance -- 19.1 Insured Losses -- 19.2 Components of Catastrophe Insurance -- 19.3 A New Awareness -- 19.4 Diversification -- 19.5 Risk and Return -- 19.6 Coping Strategies -- 20 Integrated Assessment -- 20.1 Expected Utility -- 20.2 Probability -- 20.3 Social Vulnerability to U.S. Hurricanes -- 20.4 Value of Seasonal Predictions -- 20.5 Chaos and Complexity -- 20.6 Simulation -- References -- Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K. , L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- Q -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W -- Y -- Z.

Note: FM.pdf -- Preface -- Contents -- Contributors -- Elsner_149444_Ch01.pdf -- : Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Effects on Tropical Cyclones -- Introduction -- Detection and Attribution -- Definition -- Detected Trends in Tropical Cyclone Characteristics -- Tropical Cyclone Data -- Trend Analyses -- Attribution of Detected Trends in Tropical Cyclones -- Theoretical Techniques -- Tropical Cyclone Numbers -- Tropical Cyclone Intensities -- Simulation Techniques -- What is Required to Improve Detection and Attribution? -- Conclusion -- Elsner_149444_Ch02.pdf -- 2: Electrification in Hurricanes: Implications for Water Vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer -- Introduction -- Data and Methodology -- Results and Discussion -- Conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- Elsner_149444_Ch03.pdf -- : Long-Term Natural Variability of Tropical Cyclones in Australia -- Introduction -- Australian Paleocyclone Records -- The Sedimentary Record -- Intensity of Tropical Cyclones from Sedimentary and Erosional Evidence -- High Resolution (Isotope) Records of Tropical Cyclones -- The Quaternary versus the Instrumental Record -- Conclusion -- Elsner_149444_Ch04.pdf -- 4: Statistical Link Between United States Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Solar Cycle -- Introduction -- Model for Seasonal North Atlantic Hurricane Counts -- Model for Seasonal U.S. Hurricane Counts -- Model for Daily Tropical Cyclone Intensity -- Discussion and Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Elsner_149444_Ch05.pdf -- : Five Year Prediction of the Number of Hurricanes that make United States Landfall -- Introduction -- Background and Motivation -- General Strategy -- Data -- Estimating 2007 -- Long Baseline Methods -- Non-Stationarity of Hurricane Number Time-Series -- Short Baseline Predictions -- Indirect Method -- Mixed Baseline Predictions -- Climate Shift Models -- SST-Based Predictions. , One-Step SST Predictions -- Two-Step SST Predictions -- Numerical Ensemble Based SST Predictions -- SST Climate Shift Predictions -- SST-Hurricane Number Relationship -- Using Windshear and SSTs -- Model Comparison -- Summary -- Summary Tables -- Elsner_149444_Ch06.pdf -- : A New Index for Tropical Cyclone Development from Sea Surface Temperature and Evaporation Fields -- Introduction -- The Global Relation Between Sea Surface Temperature and Evaporation -- Theoretical Interpretation of the Global Fields -- Spatial Evaluation of the Temperature Gradient of Evaporation -- The Physical Meaning of the Hurricane Index -- Energy Exchange Processes for the Ocean Mixed Layer -- A Simple Hurricane Model -- Results: (I) The Observed H Fields -- The Distributions of H -- Results: (II) Comparison Between Observed Tropical Cyclone Numbers and the Standard Deviation of the H-index -- Climate Model Downscaling of Tropical Cyclone Occurrences -- Discussion -- Acknowledgments -- Elsner_149444_Ch07.pdf -- : Probability of Hurricane Intensification and United States Hurricane Landfall under Conditions of Elevated Atlantic Sea Surfac -- Introduction -- Data -- Relationship between Basin and Landfall Activity -- Landfall Probability -- Physical Factors Influencing Landfall Probability -- Hurricane Intensification and Landfall Probability -- Estimation Method -- Hurricane Intensification Probability -- Hurricane Landfall Probability -- Summary -- Acknowledgements -- Elsner_149444_Ch08.pdf -- Chapter 8: Wavelet-Lag Regression Analysis of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones -- Introduction -- Data -- Methods -- Results -- TC Corrections and Normality -- Snow Cover and Cyclones -- Discussion and Conclusions -- TC Time Series and Statistical Testing -- TC Interaction with Snow Cover -- Acknowledgments -- Elsner_149444_Ch09.pdf -- : Network Analysis of U.S. Hurricanes -- Introduction. , A Brief Introduction to Networks -- U.S. Hurricanes -- A Network of U.S. Hurricanes -- Example -- Full Network -- Global and Local Metrics of the Network -- Climate Conditioned Networks -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Elsner_149444_Ch10.pdf -- 10: Migration of the Tropical Cyclone Zone Throughout the Holocene -- Introduction -- Data -- Current Seasonal Variations in the NA Circulation System -- Spatial Relationships Between Circulation Features -- Short Term -- Long Term -- Paleo Conditions -- ITCZ -- BH -- TC -- Hindcast -- Hypothesis Testing -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Elsner_149444_Ch11.pdf -- 11: Aerosol Effects on Lightning and Intensity of Landfalling Hurricanes -- Introduction: Potential Mechanisms of Lightning in Hurricanes -- Aerosol Effects on Microstructure of Individual Tropical Maritime Clouds -- Description of the Cloud Model -- Design of Simulations with the Cloud Model -- Results of 2-D Simulations -- Aerosol Effects on TC Approaching the Land -- Design of Numerical Simulations -- Results of Simulations -- Discussion and Conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- Elsner_149444_Ch12.pdf -- 12: Response of Tropical Cyclogenesis to Global Warming in an IPCC AR4 Scenario -- Introduction -- Method of Calculation of the Convective Seasonal and Yearly Genesis Parameter -- Model Data Used for the Analysis -- Results for the Current Climate -- Results for Scenario A2 -- Discussion and Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- Elsner_149444_Ch13.pdf -- : Risk of Tropical Cyclones Over the Mediterranean Sea in a Climate Change Scenario -- Introduction -- Methods and Data -- Results -- Frequency and Intensity of Cyclone Centres -- Analysis of Tropical Characteristics of Cyclones -- Discussion and Conclusions -- Elsner_149444_Ch14.pdf -- 14: A Fast Non-Empirical Tropical Cyclone Identification Method -- Introduction -- Methodologies -- Data. , Conventional Method -- Proposed Method -- Results -- Comparison of Two Streamline Methods -- Comparison of Streamline Method to Conventional One -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Elsner_149444_Ch15.pdf -- : Boundary Layer Model for Moving Tropical Cyclones -- Introduction -- Review of Boundary Layer Models -- Proposed Model -- Momentum Integral Method -- Model Comparison -- Sensitivity Analysis -- Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- Appendix A -- Elsner_149444_Ch16.pdf -- : Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming in a General Circulation Model -- Introduction -- Model, Simulations and Methodology -- The Model -- The Climate Scenario Simulations -- Reference Data -- Method of Detection of the Simulated Tropical Cyclones -- Simulation of the Tropical Climate and TC Climatology -- Simulation of Mean State and High-frequency Variability in the Tropics -- Simulation of Tropical Cyclones -- Impacts of the Global Warming on the Tropical Climate and TC Climatology -- Changes in the Tropical Mean State -- Changes in the Simulated Tropical Cyclones -- Discussion -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Elsner_149444_Ch17.pdf -- 17: Relationship between ENSO and North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency Simulated in a Coupled General Circulation Model -- Introduction -- Model and Data -- Climatology -- Model Climate -- Structure of Model TC -- Climatology of TCs -- Variability of TC -- Model ENSO -- ENSO and TC Frequency -- Trend in TC Frequency -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Elsner_149444_Ch18.pdf -- : Modeling of Tropical Cyclones and Intensity Forecasting -- Background -- Importance of Remote Sensing Data -- Numerical Modeling of Tropical Storms -- Improving Initial Condition (Adaptive Data Assimilation) -- Improving Model Grid Resolution (Solution Adaptive Modeling Technique) -- Concluding Remarks -- Acknowledgements -- Elsner_149444_Ch19.pdf. , : Roadmap to Assess the Economic Cost of Climate Change with an Application to Hurricanes in the United States -- Introduction and Motivation -- Socio-Economic, Emission and Climate Scenarios -- Downscaling from Global Climate Change to Local Impacts -- From Local Impacts to Direct Losses -- Assessing Direct Losses -- Adaptation, Positive and Negative Effects -- From Direct Losses to Indirect Losses -- Assessing Indirect Losses -- Adaptation to Reduce Indirect Losses -- Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- Elsner_149444_Ch20.pdf -- : The Science and Politics Problem: Policymaking, Climate Change and Hurricanes -- The ``Science and Politics Problem´´ -- Scientific Understanding of Global Warming, Climate Change, Hurricanes -- Global Warming and Climate Change -- Global Warming, Climate Change and Hurricanes -- Wither United States Leadership? -- The Global Community -- Integrating Science and Politics -- Conclusion -- References -- Index.pdf -- : Index.

Note: Hurricanes and Climate Change -- Preface -- Contents -- 1 The Tropical Cyclone Climate Model Intercomparison Project -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Tropical Cyclones as Simulated by Climate Models -- 2.1 Current-Climate Simulation -- 3 Model Description -- 4 Methodology -- 4.1 Large-Scale Climate Variables -- 4.2 Detection of Tropical Cyclones in Model Output -- 5 Results -- 5.1 CMIP3 Model Output -- 5.1.1 Large-Scale Fields: Emanuel Genesis Parameter -- 5.1.2 Comparison Between Results of Two Detection Schemes -- 5.1.3 PCMDI Model Tropical Cyclone Generation -- 6 High-Resolution Global Model Output -- 7 Regional Climate Model Results -- 8 Discussion and Conclusion -- References -- 2 Change of Tropical Cyclone and Seasonal Climate State in a Global Warming Experiment with a Global Cloud-System-Resolving Model -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Experimental Design -- 3 Results -- 3.1 Changes in Mean Climate Features -- 3.2 Changes in Tropical Cyclones Tracks Frequency and Maximum Wind Speed -- 4 Summary and Remarks -- References -- 3 Role of the SST Anomaly Structures in Response of Cyclogenesis to Global Warming -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Definitions of the Cyclogenesis Indices -- 2.1 Convective Yearly Genesis Parameter (CYGP) -- 2.2 Genesis Potential Index (GPI) -- 2.3 Calibration -- 3 Objectives of the Study -- 4 Global Results -- 5 Results for the Different Oceanic Basins -- 6 Discussion -- 7 Conclusion -- References -- 4 Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Observations, Reanalysis and ARPEGE Simulations in the North Atlantic Basin -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Observation and Reanalysis -- 2.1 Datasets and Tracking Methodology -- 2.1.1 Datasets -- 2.1.2 Tracking Methodology -- 2.2 TCs Rainfall -- 2.3 Fraction of TCs Rainfall -- 2.4 Tropical Cyclonic Precipitation Efficiency -- TCPE -- 3 Global Climate Model ARPEGE -- 3.1 Model Description and Tracking Methodology. , 3.1.1 Model Description and Experiment Design -- 3.1.2 Tracking Methodology -- 3.2 Present Integration -- 3.2.1 TCs Rainfall -- 3.2.2 Fraction of TCs Rainfall -- 3.2.3 Tropical Cyclonic Precipitation Efficiency -- TCPE -- 3.3 Future Integration -- 3.3.1 Fraction of TCs Rainfall -- 3.3.2 Tropical Cyclonic Precipitation Efficiency -- TCPE -- 4 Conclusion and Discussions -- References -- 5 Tropical Cyclones as a Critical Phenomenon -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Power-Law Distribution of the Energy of Tropical Cyclones -- 3 Power-Law Distribution of Earthquake Energies -- 4 Relevance and Mechanisms for Power-Law Distributions -- 4.1 Divergence of the Mean Value -- 4.2 Lack of Characteristic Scale -- 4.3 Criticality -- 5 Criticality of Tropical Cyclones -- 6 Tropical Cyclone Energy and Climate Change -- 7 Discussion -- References -- 6 Environmental Signals in Property Damage Losses from Hurricanes -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Normalized Damage Losses: 1900--2007 -- 3 Climate and Solar Factors -- 4 Large and Small Losses -- 5 A Model for Annual Expected Loss -- 6 A Model for the Probable Maximum Loss -- 7 Summary -- References -- 7 A Statistical Analysis of the Frequency of United States and Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes Related to Solar Activity -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Background -- 3 Data -- 4 The Sun--Hurricane Relationship -- 4.1 Seasonal Variability -- 4.2 Within Season Variability -- 4.3 Multivariate Models of Seasonal Hurricane Frequency -- 5 Summary and Conclusions -- References -- 8 Regional Typhoon Activity as Revealed by Track Patterns and Climate Change -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Methods -- 2.1 Clustering Methodology -- 2.2 Change-Point Analysis -- 3 Data -- 4 Results -- 5 A Suggestion for Future Research -- References -- 9 Climatic Features and Their Relationship with Tropical Cyclones Over the Intra-Americas Seas -- 1 Introduction. , 2 Brief Review of the Intra-Americas Seas Climate Features -- 3 Data and Methods -- 4 Results -- 4.1 Annual Cycle -- 4.2 Climate Indexes for 1950--2007 -- 4.3 Climate Indexes for 2010--2050 -- 5 The 2008 Regional Climate -- 5.1 Sea Surface Temperature -- 5.2 Surface Temperature -- 5.3 Precipitation -- 5.4 The Mid Summer Drought -- 5.5 The Intra-Americas (Caribbean) Low-Level Jet -- 5.6 Cyclone Activity -- 6 Concluding Remarks -- References -- 10 On the Increasing Intensity of the Strongest Atlantic Hurricanes -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data -- 3 Quantiles and Hurricane Intensity -- 4 Increases in Hurricane Intensity with Increasing SST Accounting for ENSO -- 5 Geographic Distribution of Lifetime Maximum Intensity -- 6 Geographic Distribution of Changes in Maximum Intensity -- 7 Summary and Conclusions -- 8 Replies to Comments on Elsner et al. (2008) -- References -- 11 Frequency and Intensity of Hurricanes Within Florida's Threat Zone -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data -- 3 Hurricanes in the Vicinity of Florida -- 4 Hurricane Return Levels -- 5 Trends in Hurricane Intensity -- 6 Changes in Intensification and Decay Rates -- 7 Summary and Conclusions -- References -- 12 Linking Tropical Cyclone Number Over the Western North Pacific with Sea Surface Temperatures -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Main Source of TC Genesis and the ITCZ -- 3 The ITCZ Variabilities and Their Possible Causes -- 3.1 The ITCZ Variation -- 3.2 The Implication of SSTs Variation -- 3.3 The Effect of SSTs Pattern on the ITCZ Migration -- 4 Conclusive Remarks -- References -- 13 A Track-Relative Climatology of Eglin Air Force Base Hurricanes in a Variable Climate -- 1 Introduction -- 2 An Average Hurricane Track -- 3 Hurricane Characteristics Along the Track -- 4 Warm Versus Cool SST Years -- 5 Summary and Conclusion -- References. , 14 Estimating the Impact of Climate Variability on Cumulative Hurricane Destructive Potential Through Data Mining -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Background Information -- 3 Data -- 4 Theory and Methods -- 5 Results -- 5.1 Model Fit and Predictive Ability -- 5.2 Variable Importance -- 5.2.1 Region One -- 5.2.2 Region Two -- 5.2.3 Region Three -- 5.2.4 Aggregate of All Regions -- 6 Conclusion -- References -- Index.

Note: Cover -- Contents -- Preface -- Part One: Data, Statistics, and Software -- 1. Hurricanes, Climate, and Statistics -- 1.1. Hurricanes -- 1.2. Climate -- 1.3. Statistics -- 1.4. R -- 1.5. Organization -- 2. R Tutorial -- 2.1. Introduction -- 2.2. Data -- 2.3. Tables and Plots -- 3. Classical Statistics -- 3.1. Descriptive Statistics -- 3.2. Probability and Distributions -- 3.3. One-Sample Test -- 3.4. Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test -- 3.5. Two-Sample Test -- 3.6. Statistical Formula -- 3.7. Two-Sample Wilcoxon Test -- 3.8. Compare Variances -- 3.9. Correlation -- 3.10. Linear Regression -- 3.11. Multiple Linear Regression -- 4. Bayesian Statistics -- 4.1. Learning about the Proportion of Landfalls -- 4.2. Inference -- 4.3. Credible Interval -- 4.4. Predictive Density -- 4.5. Is Bayes's Rule Needed? -- 4.6. Bayesian Computation -- 5. Graphs and Maps -- 5.1. Graphs -- 5.2. Time Series -- 5.3. Maps -- 5.4. Coordinate Reference Systems -- 5.5. Export -- 5.6. Other Graphic Packages -- 6. Data Sets -- 6.1. Best-Tracks Data -- 6.2. Annual Aggregation -- 6.3. Coastal County Winds -- 6.4. NetCDF Files -- Part Two: Models and Methods -- 7. Frequency Models -- 7.1. Counts -- 7.2. Environmental Variables -- 7.3. Bivariate Relationships -- 7.4. Poisson Regression -- 7.5. Model Predictions -- 7.6. Forecast Skill -- 7.7. Nonlinear Regression Structure -- 7.8. Zero-Inflated Count Model -- 7.9. Machine Learning -- 7.10. Logistic Regression -- 8. Intensity Models -- 8.1. Lifetime Highest Intensity -- 8.2. Fastest Hurricane Winds -- 8.3. Categorical Wind Speeds by County -- 9. Spatial Models -- 9.1. Track Hexagons -- 9.2. SST Data -- 9.3. SST and Intensity -- 9.4. Spatial Autocorrelation -- 9.5. Spatial Regression Models -- 9.6. Spatial Interpolation -- 10. Time Series Models -- 10.1. Time Series Overlays -- 10.2. Discrete Time Series -- 10.3. Change Points. , 10.4. Continuous Time Series -- 10.5. Time-Series Network -- 11. Cluster Models -- 11.1. Time Clusters -- 11.2. Spatial Clusters -- 11.3. Feature Clusters -- 12. Bayesian Models -- 12.1. Long-Range Outlook -- 12.2. Seasonal Model -- 12.3. Consensus Model -- 12.4. Space-Time Model -- 13. Impact Models -- 13.1. Extreme Losses -- 13.2. Future Wind Damage -- Appendix A. R Functions -- Appendix B. R Packages -- Appendix C. Data sets -- Bibliography -- Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- Q -- R -- S -- T -- V -- W -- Z.