Description: Globalization has led to the introduction of thousands of alien species worldwide. With growing impacts by invasive species, understanding the invasion process remains critical for predicting adverse effects and informing efficient management. Theoretically, invasion dynamics have been assumed to follow an “invasion curve” (S-shaped curve of available area invaded over time), but this dynamic has lacked empirical testing using large-scale data and neglects to consider invader abundances. We propose an “impact curve” describing the impacts generated by invasive species over time based on cumulative abundances. To test this curve's large-scale applicability, we used the data-rich New Zealand mud snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum, one of the most damaging freshwater invaders that has invaded almost all of Europe. Using long-term (1979–2020) abundance and environmental data collected across 306 European sites, we observed that P. antipodarum abundance generally increased through time, with slower population growth at higher latitudes and with lower runoff depth. Fifty-nine percent of these populations followed the impact curve, characterized by first occurrence, exponential growth, then long-term saturation. This behaviour is consistent with boom-bust dynamics, as saturation occurs due to a rapid decline in abundance over time. Across sites, we estimated that impact peaked approximately two decades after first detection, but the rate of progression along the invasion process was influenced by local abiotic conditions. The S-shaped impact curve may be common among many invasive species that undergo complex invasion dynamics. This provides a potentially unifying approach to advance understanding of large-scale invasion dynamics and could inform timely management actions to mitigate impacts on ecosystems and economies.

Description: As alien invasive species are a key driver of biodiversity loss, understanding patterns of rapidly changing global species compositions depends upon knowledge of invasive species population dynamics and trends at large scales. Within this context, the Ponto-Caspian region is among the most notable donor regions for aquatic invasive species in Europe. Using macroinvertebrate time series collected over 52 years (1968–2020) at 265 sites across 11 central and western European countries, we examined the occurrences, invasion rates, and abundances of freshwater Ponto-Caspian fauna. We examined whether: (i) successive Ponto-Caspian invasions follow a consistent pattern of composition pioneered by the same species, and (ii) Ponto-Caspian invasion accelerates subsequent invasion rates. In our dataset, Ponto-Caspian macroinvertebrates increased from two species in 1972 to 29 species in 2012. This trend was parallelled by a non-significant increasing trend in the abundances of Ponto-Caspian taxa. Trends in Ponto-Caspian invader richness increased significantly over time. We found a relatively uniform distribution of Ponto-Caspian macroinvertebrates across Europe without any relation to the distance to their native region. The Ponto-Caspian species that arrived first were often bivalves (46.5% of cases), particularly Dreissena polymorpha, followed secondarily by amphipods (83.8%; primarily Chelicorophium curvispinum and Dikerogammarus villosus). The time between consecutive invasions decreased significantly at our coarse regional scale, suggesting that previous alien establishments may facilitate invasions of subsequent taxa. Should alien species continue to translocate from the Ponto-Caspian region, our results suggest a high potential for their future invasion success highly connected central and western European waters. However, each species’ population may decline after an initial ‘boom’ phase or after the arrival of new invasive species, resulting in different alien species dominating over time.

Description: The zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha is one of the most successful, notorious, and detrimental aquatic invasive non-native species worldwide, having invaded Europe and North America while causing substantial ecological and socio-economic impacts. Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal trends in this species' invasion success using 178 macroinvertebrate abundance time series, containing 1451 records of D. polymorpha collected across nine European countries between 1972–2019. Using these raw (absolute) abundance data, we examined trends and drivers of occurrences and relative abundances of D. polymorpha within invaded communities. Meta-regression models revealed non-significant trends both at the European level and for the majority of the invaded countries, except for France (significant decreasing trend) and Hungary (marginally positive trend). At the European level, the number of D. polymorpha occurrences over time followed a flat-top bell-shaped distribution, with a steep increase between 1973–1989 followed by a plateau phase prior to significantly declining post-1998. Using a series of climatic and hydromorphological site-specific characteristics of invaded and uninvaded sites from two periods (1998–2002; 2011–2015), we found that native richness, non-native abundance, distance to the next barrier, and elevation were associated with the occurrence of D. polymorpha. We also found that higher native richness and lower latitude were related to lower relative abundances. Using Cohen's D as a measure of D. polymorpha impact, we found that biodiversity within the invaded sites was initially higher than in uninvaded ones, but then declined, suggesting differences in biodiversity trends across invaded and uninvaded sites. While our results emphasise the high invasion success of D. polymorpha, increasing stressors within the context of global change – particularly ongoing climate change – are likely to enhance invasion rates and the impact of D. polymorpha in the near future, exacerbated by the lack of timely and effective management actions.