Description: The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) around 1.2–0.8 Myr ago and ∼ 100 kyr periodicity after that. From the viewpoint of dynamical systems, proposed mechanisms generating these periodicities are broadly divided into two types: (i) nonlinear forced responses of a mono- or multi-stable climate system to the astronomical forcing or (ii) synchronization of internal self-sustained oscillations to the astronomical forcing. In this study, we investigate the dynamics of glacial cycles simulated by the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 with a fully interactive carbon cycle, which reproduces the MPT under gradual changes in volcanic-CO2 degassing and regolith cover. We report that, in this model, the dominant frequency of glacial cycles is set in line with the principle of synchronization. It is found that the model exhibits self-sustained oscillations in the absence of astronomical forcing. Before the MPT, glacial cycles synchronize to the 41 kyr obliquity cycles because the self-sustained oscillations have periodicity relatively close to 41 kyr. After the MPT the timescale of internal oscillations becomes too long to follow every 41 kyr obliquity cycle, and the oscillations synchronize to the 100 kyr eccentricity cycles that modulate the amplitude of climatic precession. The latter synchronization occurs with the help of the 41 kyr obliquity forcing, which enables some terminations and glaciations to occur robustly at their right timing. We term this phenomenon vibration-enhanced synchronization because of its similarity to the noise-enhanced synchronization known in nonlinear science. While we interpret the dominant periodicities of glacial cycles as the result of synchronization of internal self-sustained oscillations to the astronomical forcing, the Quaternary glacial cycles show facets of both synchronization and forced response.

Description: The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving diferent feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local eforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global eforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.