Note: Front Cover -- Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective -- Copyright -- Dedication -- Contents -- Contributors -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective -- 1 Introduction -- 2 National and Regional Flood Forecasting Systems -- 3 Continental Modeling and Monitoring -- 3.1 Challenges Facing Flood Forecasting -- 3.2 Forecast Dissemination Issues -- 4 Summary -- References -- Part 1: National and Regional Flood Forecasting Systems -- Chapter 1: Australian Bureau of Meteorology Flood Forecasting and Warning -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Demographics, Climate, and Floods of Australia -- 3 History of Flood Forecasting at the Bureau of Meteorology -- 4 Current Characteristics of the Bureau and Its Services -- 5 Operational Forecasting and Systems -- 5.1 Data Systems and Quality Control -- 5.2 Modeling for Flood Forecasting -- 5.2.1 Statistical Models -- 5.2.2 Hydrologic Simulation Models -- 5.2.2.1 Reservoir Modeling -- 5.2.2.2 Weather Predictions (QPF) -- 5.2.2.3 Data Assimilation -- 5.3 Production Environment: HYMODEL and HyFS -- 5.4 Role of Expertise -- 6 Operational Challenges -- 6.1 Data and Services -- 6.2 Modeling and Forecasting -- 6.3 Warning and Communication -- 6.4 Institutional Factors -- 6.5 Understanding User Needs -- 7 Future Directions -- 8 Summary -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 2: Hydrological Forecasting Practices in Brazil -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Geography, Climate, and Floods in Brazil -- 3 General Overview of Hydrological forecasts in Brazil -- 4 Examples of Operational and Preoperational Forecasting Systems -- 4.1 Doce River Flood Forecasting System Maintained by the Brazilian Geological Service (CPRM) -- 4.2 Upper Uruguay River Basin Hydropower Reservoir Inflow Forecasting System -- 4.3 São Francisco River Basin Ensemble Forecasting System. , 4.4 Tocantins River Basin Forecasting System -- 4.5 Experimental River Flow Forecasts in the Amazon -- 5 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 3: The Development and Recent Advances of Flood Forecasting Activities in China -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Evolution of Flood Control and Management in China -- 2.1 Start-up Phase: Before the Mid 1970s -- 2.2 Development Phase: From the Mid 1970s to 1998 -- 2.3 Improvement Phase: From 1998 to the Present Day -- 3 Development of Operational Hydrological Forecasting and Prediction in China -- 3.1 Hydrological Information and Forecasting Administration -- 3.2 Hydrological Monitoring and Data Transmission -- 3.2.1 Hydrological Monitoring -- 3.2.2 Data Transmission -- 3.3 Hydrological Forecasting Method and Model -- 3.4 Hydrological Forecasting System -- 3.5 Application of New Technology in Hydrological Forecasting and Prediction -- 3.5.1 Rainfall and Flood Joint Forecast -- 3.5.2 Interactive Forecast Program -- 3.5.3 Application of DEM, RS, and GIS Technologies -- 4 Conclusions and Outlook -- References -- Chapter 4: A Regional Perceptive of Flood Forecasting and Disaster Management Systems for the Congo River Basin -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Physiographic Setting and Physical Characteristics of the Congo River Basin -- 3 Flood-bearing Processes in the Congo River Basin -- 3.1 Hydro Climate Processes -- 3.2 A Wavelet Approach for Understanding Hydro Climate Processes in the Congo River Basin -- 3.3 Land Use Dynamics -- 3.4 Climate Change -- 4 Trends and Socio-Economic Impacts of Floods in the Congo River Basin -- 5 Current Status of Flood Forecasting and Disaster Management Systems in the Congo River Basin -- 5.1 Hydrometeorological Services and Monitoring -- 5.1.1 Ground-Based Monitoring -- 5.1.2 Satellite-Based Observation -- 5.2 Data Management -- 5.3 Rainfall-Runoff Modeling and Forecasting. , 5.4 Institutional Arrangement and Flood Management Policy -- 6 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 5: Flood Forecasting in Germany - Challenges of a Federal Structure and Transboundary Cooperation -- 1 Introduction -- 2 International Cooperation - The Rhine Basin -- 3 Measured Meteorological and Hydrological Data -- 4 Numerical Weather Predictions -- 5 Snowmelt Forecasts -- 6 Regional Organization and Transboundary Data Exchange -- 7 River Forecasting Models -- 7.1 The LARSIM Water Balance Model -- 7.2 The WAVOS Water Level Forecasting System -- 7.3 Components of WAVOS Rhein -- 8 Forecast Dissemination -- 9 Flood Partnerships -- 10 Summary -- References -- Chapter 6: Operational Flood Forecasting in Israel -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Climate and Hydrological Characteristics of Israel -- 3 The Flood Forecasting Modeling System in Israel -- 3.1 Flood Forecasting at the Israeli Domain Using the WRF-Hydro Model -- 3.2 Flood Forecasting for the Tel Aviv Metropolis Using the HEC-HMS Model -- 4 Summary -- References -- Chapter 7: Operational Hydrologic Forecast System in Russia -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Hydrological Practices in Russia -- 3 The Hydrologic Forecasting System of the Roshydromet -- 4 Hydrometeorological Data -- 5 Long-Range Spring Flood Predictions -- 6 Early Warning Flood Forecasting Systems -- 7 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 8: Increasing Early Warning Lead Time Through Improved Transboundary Flood Forecasting in the Gash River Basin, Horn of Africa -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Building a Flood Forecast and Early Warning System -- 3 Geographical Setting of the Gash River Basin -- 4 The Modeling Approach -- 4.1 Topographic Model Setup -- 4.2 Spatial and Nonspatial Databases -- 4.3 Terrain Processing -- 4.4 Hydrological Parameter Extraction -- 4.5 Hydrometeorological Model Setup. , 4.6 Model Setup and Simulation Run -- 4.7 Model Calibration and Validation -- 5 Results and Discussion -- 6 Conclusion -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 9: Flood Forecasting - A National Overview for Great Britain -- 1 Background and Catalysts for Change -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Flood Risk in England, Wales, and Scotland -- 1.3 Flood Forecasting and Warning Landscape 1998-2009 -- 1.4 The Catalyst for Change: Summer 2007 Floods -- 1.5 The Pitt Review and the Establishment of the Flood Forecasting Centre -- 1.6 Establishment of the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service -- 2 Countrywide Flood Forecasting Modeling Approach -- 2.1 Drivers, History, and Context for a Countrywide Flood Forecasting Approach -- 2.2 Countywide Fluvial Flood Forecasting -- 2.3 Countrywide Surface Water Flood Forecasting -- 2.4 Countrywide Coastal Flood Forecasting -- 2.5 Countrywide Groundwater Flood Forecasting -- 3 Forecast Dissemination Protocols and Products -- 3.1 Flood Forecasting and Warning Dissemination -- 3.2 Flood Forecast Products and Services -- 4 Measuring Performance of the Flood Forecasting and Warning Service -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Assessing Local Model Performance -- 4.3 National Assessment of Local Model, and National Model Performance -- 4.4 Formal National Measure of Overall Performance of the Forecasting and Warning Service -- 5 Future Forecasting Challenges -- 5.1 Recent Experience and Key Research Areas -- 5.2 Nowcasting Science and Short Lead Times -- 5.3 Observations and Instrumentation -- 5.4 Estuaries and Coastal Modeling -- 5.5 Integrated Modeling and Forecasting -- 5.6 Longer Lead Time Forecasting: Day 6 to Seasonal -- 5.7 People, Skills, Interpretation, and Engagement -- Disclaimer -- Dedication -- References -- Chapter 10: Flood Forecasting in the United States NOAA /National Weather Service. , 1 Introduction -- 2 History -- 3 A Brief History of Models and Modeling Systems Used by the NWS -- 3.1 NWS River Forecasting Paradigm -- 3.2 Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) Model -- 3.3 Data Acquisition and Processing -- 3.3.1 U.S. Geological Survey Stream Gaging Program -- 3.3.2 Cooperative Observer Program -- 3.3.3 HADS -- 3.3.4 Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS) Network -- 3.4 NWSRFS -- 3.4.1 Operational Forecast System (OFS) -- 3.4.2 Interactive Forecast Program (IFP) -- 3.4.3 Calibration System (CS) -- 3.4.4 Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) System -- 3.4.5 Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) System -- 3.5 Models -- 3.6 Methods -- 3.6.1 Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) -- 3.6.2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) -- 3.6.3 Temperature Estimation -- 4 Current Models and Modeling System -- 4.1 Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) -- 4.2 Models -- 4.2.1 Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) Model -- 5 Current Operations -- 5.1 AWIPS -- 5.2 AHPS -- 5.3 Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) -- 5.3.1 Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) -- 5.3.2 Multi-Radar, Multi-Sensor (MRMS) System -- 5.4 Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) -- 5.5 Forecast Products -- 5.6 Forecast Evaluation -- 5.6.1 Forecast Verification -- 5.6.2 Service Assessment -- 6 Additional Topics -- 6.1 Flash Flood Watches and Warnings -- 6.2 AFWS -- 7 Future Developments -- 7.1 Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS) -- 7.2 National Water Center -- References -- Part 2: Continental Modeling and Monitoring - The Future? -- Chapter 11: On the Operational Implementation of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) -- 1 Introduction -- 2 EFAS Structure -- 3 Data Acquisition -- 4 Model Components -- 4.1 Meteorological Models -- 4.2 LISFLOOD -- 5 Generating Forecasts. , 5.1 Infrastructure.

Note: Front Cover -- Indus River Basin: Water Security and Sustainability -- Copyright -- Dedication -- Contents -- Contributors -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Part I: Indus River Basin-Past, Present and Future -- Introduction: Introduction of Indus River Basin: Water Security and Sustainability -- 1. Indus River Basin -- 2. A Historical Perspective of the IRB -- 3. Synopsis of This Book -- 3.1. Part I-Indus River Basin-Past, Present, and Future -- 3.2. Part II-Climate-Ecohydrology of Indus River Basin -- 3.3. Part III-Water and Food Security of Indus River Basin -- 3.4. Part IV-Water Extremes in Indus River Basin -- 3.5. Part V-Water Management in Indus River Basin -- References -- Further Reading -- Chapter 1: Water Resources Modeling and Prospective Evaluation in the Indus River Under Present and Prospective Climate C ... -- 1.1. Introduction -- 1.1.1. Water Resources of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalaya -- 1.1.2. The Karakoram Anomaly -- 1.2. Climate and Hydrology of the Upper Indus Basin -- 1.3. Summary of Recent Studies -- 1.3.1. Hydrological Regime of the UIB -- 1.3.2. Recent Evidence of Climate Change and Impact on Water Resources in the UIB -- 1.3.3. Projected Water Resources in the UIB During the 21st Century -- 1.4. A Guideline and Recent Key Study on Monitoring and Modeling High-Altitude Catchments -- 1.4.1. A Method to Model High-Altitude Catchments -- 1.4.2. A Paradigmatic Case Study, Shigar River of Gilgit-Baltistan -- 1.4.2.1. The Shigar River -- 1.4.2.2. Data for High-Altitude Catchment Modeling -- 1.4.2.3. Glacio-Hydrological Modeling in High-Altitude Catchments -- 1.4.2.4. Future Hydrology of the Shigar River -- 1.4.2.5. Future Cryospheric Behavior in the Shigar River -- 1.4.2.6. Potential for Increased Floods Within the UIB: The Case of Shigar River -- 1.5. Discussion -- 1.5.1. Hydrological Trends Within the UIB. , 1.5.2. The Need for Hydrological Monitoring in the UIB -- 1.5.3. A Proposed Hydrometric Network for the CKNP -- 1.6. Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Further Reading -- Chapter 2: Challenges in Forecasting Water Resources of the Indus River Basin: Lessons From the Analysis and Modeling of ... -- 2.1. Introduction -- 2.2. Lessons From Atmospheric Models -- 2.2.1. Skillful Prediction -- 2.2.2. Prediction Skill and Model Biases -- 2.2.3. Spring Snow Over Eurasia -- 2.2.4. The Effect of Resolution -- 2.2.5. Multidecadal Timescales -- 2.3. Lessons From Uncertainty -- 2.3.1. The Complexity of Uncertainty -- 2.3.2. Uncertainty in Downscaled Output -- 2.3.2.1. Assessing Uncertainty: A Case Study -- 2.3.2.2. Investigating Seasonal Changes in the Case Study -- 2.3.2.3. Is Cooling a Plausible Result? -- 2.3.3. Heterogeneity in the Estimates -- 2.3.4. Projections of Climate Extremes -- 2.4. Lessons From Hydrological Projections -- 2.4.1. Cascade of Uncertainty -- 2.4.2. Overview of a Few Hydrological Studies -- 2.4.2.1. Results from NORINDIA -- 2.4.2.2. The Role of Glacier Melt -- 2.5. Conclusion -- Appendix A. The NORINDIA Project in a Nutshell -- A. Case Study of the Beas River System -- B. Assessment of the CFSR Reanalysis Product -- Appendix B. Dynamical Downscaling of NorESM and ERA-Interim Data Sets -- Appendix C. Bayesian Method for Estimating the Mean Surface Temperature -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 3: Past and Future Glacier Changes in the Indus River Basin -- 3.1. Introduction -- 3.2. Past Glacier Changes -- 3.2.1. Area and Length Changes -- 3.2.2. Mass Changes -- 3.3. Future Trends -- 3.4. Discussion and Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Part II: Climate-Eco-Hydrology of Indus River Basin -- Chapter 4: Probabilistic Precipitation Analysis in the Central Indus River Basin -- 4.1. Introduction. , 4.2. Data and Methods -- 4.2.1. Study Area -- 4.2.2. In Situ Observations -- 4.2.3. Atmospheric Reanalyses -- 4.3. Application of the Model Conditional Processor -- 4.3.1. Predictive Uncertainty -- 4.3.2. Normalization of Variables -- 4.3.3. Precipitation: Normal Distributions -- 4.3.4. Back-Transformation Into the Original Space -- 4.4. Application and Results -- 4.4.1. Calibration -- 4.4.2. Performance Indicators -- 4.4.3. Validation -- 4.5. Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- Appendix. The Model Conditional Processor -- References -- Chapter 5: Glaciers in the Indus Basin -- 5.1. Introduction -- 5.2. Data and Methodology -- 5.3. Glacier Characteristics in the Indus Basin -- 5.3.1. Number, Area, and Estimated Ice Reserves -- 5.3.2. Glacier Area Classes -- 5.3.3. Glacier Elevation -- 5.3.4. Aspects -- 5.3.5. Slope -- 5.3.6. Morphological Glacier Type -- 5.3.7. Clean-Ice and Debris-Covered Glaciers -- 5.3.8. Hypsography -- 5.4. Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Further Reading -- Chapter 6: A Review on the Projected Changes in Climate Over the Indus Basin -- 6.1. Introduction -- 6.2. Climate Projection in the Indus Basin -- 6.2.1. Projected Temperature Trends -- 6.2.2. Projected Precipitation Trends -- 6.3. Conclusion -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 7: A Hydrological Perspective on Interpretation of Available Climate Projections for the Upper Indus Basin -- 7.1. Introduction -- 7.2. Initial Analysis of Ground-Based Data -- 7.2.1. Precipitation -- 7.2.2. Temperature -- 7.3. Hydrological Regimes and Climate Runoff Relationships -- 7.4. Evaluation and Interpretation of Available Climate Projections for the UIB -- 7.5. Available Methods for Downscaling GCM Projections to Finer Spatial Scales -- 7.6. Evaluation of Outputs From Available RCM Historical Period Simulations -- 7.6.1. RCM Skill in Representation of Large-Scale Climate. , 7.6.2. RCM Skill in Representation of the UIB-Karakoram Climate -- 7.7. Vertical Patterns of Projected UIB Climate Change From CORDEX-South Asia -- 7.8. Summary and Priorities for Further Research on the UIB's Future Climate -- References -- Part III: Water and Food Security of Indus River Basin -- Chapter 8: Transboundary Indus River Basin: Potential Threats to Its Integrity -- 8.1. Introduction -- 8.2. Water Sharing Mechanism in Practice -- 8.3. Indus River Basin and Regional Economy -- 8.4. Emerging Threats to the Indus River Basin -- 8.4.1. Growing Population -- 8.4.2. Reduced or Fluctuating Surface Flows -- 8.4.3. Reduced Environmental Flows -- 8.4.4. Accelerated Water Scarcity -- 8.4.5. Rising Water Demand -- 8.4.6. Lower Land and Water Productivity -- 8.4.7. Groundwater Quantity and Quality -- 8.4.8. Hydropower Generation and Energy Crisis -- 8.4.9. Climate Change -- 8.4.10. Aging Treaty -- 8.5. Conclusions -- References -- Further Reading -- Chapter 9: Indo-Ganges River Basin Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) and Irrigated Area Mapping -- 9.1. Introduction -- 9.2. Study Area -- 9.3. Data -- 9.3.1. Satellite Data -- 9.3.2. Ground Data -- 9.3.3. Ideal Spectra Signatures -- 9.3.4. Mapping Land Use/Land Cover -- 9.3.5. Matching Class Spectra With Ideal Spectra to Group Classes Using Spectral Matching Techniques (SMTs) -- 9.3.6. Subpixel Area Calculations -- 9.3.7. Accuracy Assessments -- 9.4. Results and Discussions -- 9.4.1. Spatial Distribution of Croplands in Indo-Ganges Basin -- 9.4.2. Spatial Distribution of Irrigated and Rainfed Croplands in the Indo-Ganges Basin -- 9.4.3. Class Signatures and Onset-Peak-Senescence-Duration of Crops -- 9.4.4. Accuracies and Errors -- 9.4.5. Comparison With District Wise Cropland Statistics -- 9.4.6. Discussion of Methods -- 9.5. Conclusions -- References. , Chapter 10: Increasing Water Productivity in the Agricultural Sector -- 10.1. Introduction -- 10.2. Concepts of Water Productivity -- 10.3. Agricultural Water Productivity Across the Globe -- 10.4. Opportunities for Increasing Water Productivity in Agriculture Sector -- 10.4.1. Plant-Scale Interventions -- 10.4.2. Field-Scale Interventions -- 10.4.3. Irrigation System-Scale Interventions -- 10.4.4. Basin-Scale Interventions -- 10.5. Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 11: Hydrological Cycle Over the Indus Basin at Monsoon Margins: Present and Future -- 11.1. Introduction -- 11.2. Data and Methods -- 11.2.1. Data -- 11.2.2. Methods -- 11.3. Results and Discussion -- 11.3.1. Observed Precipitation -- 11.3.2. Physical Consistency and Realism of CMIP5 Experiments -- 11.3.3. Future Water Budget Changes -- 11.4. Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Part IV: Water Extremes in Indus River Basin -- Chapter 12: Water Resources Forecasting Within the Indus River Basin: A Call for Comprehensive Modeling -- 12.1. Introduction -- 12.1.1. Necessity for Hydrological Services -- 12.1.1.1. Pakistan's Needs -- 12.1.2. Hydro-Climatology -- 12.1.3. Flooding -- 12.1.4. Irrigation and Water Resources -- 12.2. Status of Hydrometeorological Monitoring -- 12.3. Status of Hydrological Modeling and Forecasting -- 12.3.1. Pakistan -- 12.3.2. India -- 12.3.3. China -- 12.3.4. Afghanistan -- 12.4. Needed Improvements and Benefits -- 12.4.1. Infrastructure Improvements -- 12.4.2. Improved Capacity Building and Coordination -- 12.4.3. Hydrological Modeling Improvements -- 12.5. Conclusions -- References -- Further Reading -- Chapter 13: Review of Hydrometeorological Monitoring and Forecasting System for Floods in the Indus Basin in Pakistan -- 13.1. Introduction -- 13.2. Floods in the Indus Basin -- 13.3. Hydrometeorological Observation/Monitoring System of Pakistan. , 13.3.1. Hydrometeorological Observation by PMD.

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