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  • 1
    In: Frontiers in Climate, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 4 ( 2022-9-16)
    Abstract: Climate change and land-use change can alter the role of natural vegetation as a sink or source of atmospheric carbon. In this work, we evaluate the response of water and carbon fluxes and stocks in Brazilian biomes as a proxy for ecosystem services of regional climate regulation under two contrasting future scenarios: a sustainable development scenario, where some deforested areas are restored by vegetation regrowth combined with a low representative concentration pathway, and a pessimistic scenario, where there is still high deforestation rates and strong climate change. We used refined regional scenarios for land-use change in Brazil, together with climate projections of the HADGEM2-ES model for RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 to drive a land surface model and assess possible future impacts in surface fluxes. Our results show that drying climate and shifts of natural vegetation into anthropogenic land use might shift part of upperstory biomass into understory biomass, which can be more vulnerable to dry events. The simulations also show that climate change appears to drive most of the water balance changes compared to land-use change, especially over the Amazon.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2624-9553
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2986708-3
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2012
    In:  Theoretical and Applied Climatology Vol. 109, No. 1-2 ( 2012-7), p. 205-220
    In: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 109, No. 1-2 ( 2012-7), p. 205-220
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0177-798X , 1434-4483
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2012
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1463177-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 405799-5
    SSG: 14
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  • 3
    In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 21, No. 3 ( 2017-03-09), p. 1455-1475
    Abstract: Abstract. Deforestation in Amazon is expected to decrease evapotranspiration (ET) and to increase soil moisture and river discharge under prevailing energy-limited conditions. The magnitude and sign of the response of ET to deforestation depend both on the magnitude and regional patterns of land-cover change (LCC), as well as on climate change and CO2 levels. On the one hand, elevated CO2 decreases leaf-scale transpiration, but this effect could be offset by increased foliar area density. Using three regional LCC scenarios specifically established for the Brazilian and Bolivian Amazon, we investigate the impacts of climate change and deforestation on the surface hydrology of the Amazon Basin for this century, taking 2009 as a reference. For each LCC scenario, three land surface models (LSMs), LPJmL-DGVM, INLAND-DGVM and ORCHIDEE, are forced by bias-corrected climate simulated by three general circulation models (GCMs) of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4). On average, over the Amazon Basin with no deforestation, the GCM results indicate a temperature increase of 3.3 °C by 2100 which drives up the evaporative demand, whereby precipitation increases by 8.5 %, with a large uncertainty across GCMs. In the case of no deforestation, we found that ET and runoff increase by 5.0 and 14 %, respectively. However, in south-east Amazonia, precipitation decreases by 10 % at the end of the dry season and the three LSMs produce a 6 % decrease of ET, which is less than precipitation, so that runoff decreases by 22 %. For instance, the minimum river discharge of the Rio Tapajós is reduced by 31 % in 2100. To study the additional effect of deforestation, we prescribed to the LSMs three contrasted LCC scenarios, with a forest decline going from 7 to 34 % over this century. All three scenarios partly offset the climate-induced increase of ET, and runoff increases over the entire Amazon. In the south-east, however, deforestation amplifies the decrease of ET at the end of dry season, leading to a large increase of runoff (up to +27 % in the extreme deforestation case), offsetting the negative effect of climate change, thus balancing the decrease of low flows in the Rio Tapajós. These projections are associated with large uncertainties, which we attribute separately to the differences in LSMs, GCMs and to the uncertain range of deforestation. At the subcatchment scale, the uncertainty range on ET changes is shown to first depend on GCMs, while the uncertainty of runoff projections is predominantly induced by LSM structural differences. By contrast, we found that the uncertainty in both ET and runoff changes attributable to uncertain future deforestation is low.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1607-7938
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2017
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  • 4
    In: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Elsevier BV, Vol. 294 ( 2020-11), p. 108141-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0168-1923
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2012165-9
    SSG: 23
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrograficas (IPABHi) ; 2017
    In:  Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science Vol. 12, No. 2 ( 2017-02-22), p. 179-
    In: Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science, Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrograficas (IPABHi), Vol. 12, No. 2 ( 2017-02-22), p. 179-
    Abstract: This work studied the behavior and seasonality of evapotranspiration influenced by biotic and abiotic factors through analysis of diurnal variation of aerodynamic resistance (ra), stomatal resistance (rs) and decoupling factor (Ω). This index was proposed by Jarvis and McNaughton (1986) as an indicative of the control of these resistances on the evapotranspiration of vegetation. Selection of representative data from wet and dry seasons from a primary forest in Central Amazonia and a primary forest and a pasture sites in Southwestern Amazonia had shown that: (i) ra is about 20 s.m-1 in both forests in both seasons, and ranges from 70 to 100 s.m-1 in the pasture site; (ii) rs varies both throughout the day and seasonally, with medians increasing from 40 in the morning, to 150 s.m-1 in late afternoon, in the wet season in the forests and from 50 to 160 s.m-1 in the pasture. These values increase in the dry season, with the forests rs ranging from 50 up to 500 s.m-1 and pasture rs starting from 140 s.m‑1 and reaching up to more than 1800 s.m-1 in the dry afternoons; (iii) Ω ranges from 0.5 to 0.8 during the wet season, and reduces to values below 0.5 in the afternoons during the dry season, indicating that, although a strong influence of net radiation in the evaporative loss is present, to a large extent the evapotranspiration fluxes are coupled to the biotic control of stomatal closure in the vegetation, especially in the pasture and during dry periods.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1980-993X
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrograficas (IPABHi)
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2389901-3
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  • 6
    In: Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Vol. 379, No. 6630 ( 2023-01-27)
    Abstract: Most analyses of land-use and land-cover change in the Amazon forest have focused on the causes and effects of deforestation. However, anthropogenic disturbances cause degradation of the remaining Amazon forest and threaten their future. Among such disturbances, the most important are edge effects (due to deforestation and the resulting habitat fragmentation), timber extraction, fire, and extreme droughts that have been intensified by human-induced climate change. We synthesize knowledge on these disturbances that lead to Amazon forest degradation, including their causes and impacts, possible future extents, and some of the interventions required to curb them. ADVANCES Analysis of existing data on the extent of fire, edge effects, and timber extraction between 2001 and 2018 reveals that 0.36 ×10 6 km 2 (5.5%) of the Amazon forest is under some form of degradation, which corresponds to 112% of the total area deforested in that period. Adding data on extreme droughts increases the estimate of total degraded area to 2.5 ×10 6 km 2 , or 38% of the remaining Amazonian forests. Estimated carbon loss from these forest disturbances ranges from 0.05 to 0.20 Pg C year −1 and is comparable to carbon loss from deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year −1 ). Disturbances can bring about as much biodiversity loss as deforestation itself, and forests degraded by fire and timber extraction can have a 2 to 34% reduction in dry-season evapotranspiration. The underlying drivers of disturbances (e.g., agricultural expansion or demand for timber) generate material benefits for a restricted group of regional and global actors, whereas the burdens permeate across a broad range of scales and social groups ranging from nearby forest dwellers to urban residents of Andean countries. First-order 2050 projections indicate that the four main disturbances will remain a major threat and source of carbon fluxes to the atmosphere, independent of deforestation trajectories. OUTLOOK Whereas some disturbances such as edge effects can be tackled by curbing deforestation, others, like constraining the increase in extreme droughts, require additional measures, including global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Curbing degradation will also require engaging with the diverse set of actors that promote it, operationalizing effective monitoring of different disturbances, and refining policy frameworks such as REDD+. These will all be supported by rapid and multidisciplinary advances in our socioenvironmental understanding of tropical forest degradation, providing a robust platform on which to co-construct appropriate policies and programs to curb it. An overview of tropical forest degradation processes in the Amazon. Underlying drivers (a few of which are shown in gray at the bottom) stimulate disturbances (timber extraction, fire, edge effects, and extreme drought) that cause forest degradation. A satellite illustrates the attempts to estimate degradation’s spatial extent and associated carbon losses. Impacts (in red and insets) are either local—causing biodiversity losses or affecting forest-dweller livelihoods—or remote, for example, with smoke affecting people’s health in cities or causing the melting of Andean glaciers owing to black carbon deposition. Credit: Alex Argozino/Studio Argozino
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0036-8075 , 1095-9203
    RVK:
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 128410-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2066996-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2060783-0
    SSG: 11
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  • 7
    In: Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 6 ( 2023-8-23)
    Abstract: Amazon forests are the largest forests in the tropics and play a fundamental role for regional and global ecosystem service provision. However, they are under threat primarily from deforestation. Amazonia's carbon balance trend reflects the condition of its forests. There are different approaches to estimate large-scale carbon balances, including top-down (e.g., CO 2 atmospheric measurements combined with atmospheric transport information) and bottom-up (e.g., land use and cover change (LUCC) data based on remote sensing methods). It is important to understand their similarities and differences. Here we provide bottom-up LUCC estimates and determine to what extent they are consistent with recent top-down flux estimates during 2010 to 2018 for the Brazilian Amazon. We combine LUCC datasets resulting in annual LUCC maps from 2010 to 2018 with emissions and removals for each LUCC, and compare the resulting CO 2 estimates with top-down estimates based on atmospheric measurements. We take into account forest carbon stock maps for estimating loss processes, and carbon uptake of regenerating and mature forests. In the bottom-up approach total CO 2 emissions (2010 to 2018), deforestation and degradation are the largest contributing processes accounting for 58% (4.3 PgCO 2 ) and 37% (2.7 PgCO 2 ) respectively. Looking at the total carbon uptake, primary forests play a dominant role accounting for 79% (−5.9 PgCO 2 ) and secondary forest growth for 17% (−1.2 PgCO 2 ). Overall, according to our bottom-up estimates the Brazilian Amazon is a carbon sink until 2014 and a source from 2015 to 2018. In contrast according to the top-down approach the Brazilian Amazon is a source during the entire period. Both approaches estimate largest emissions in 2016. During the period where flux signs are the same (2015–2018) top-down estimates are approximately 3 times larger in 2015–2016 than bottom-up estimates while in 2017–2018 there is closer agreement. There is some agreement between the approaches–notably that the Brazilian Amazon has been a source during 2015–2018 however there are also disagreements. Generally, emissions estimated by the bottom-up approach tend to be lower. Understanding the differences will help improve both approaches and our understanding of the Amazon carbon cycle under human pressure and climate change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2624-893X
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2968523-0
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  • 8
    In: Climate Resilience and Sustainability, Wiley, Vol. 1, No. 1 ( 2022-02)
    Abstract: Forecasts of tropical ecosystem C cycling diverge among models due to differences in simulation of internal processes such as turnover, or transit times, of carbon pools. Estimates of these processes for the recent past are needed to test model representations, and so build confidence in model forecasts within and across biomes. Here, we evaluate carbon cycle process representation in two land surface models [Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) and Integrated Model of Land Surface Processes (INLAND)] for the period 2001–10 across Brazilian biomes. Model outputs are evaluated using the ILAMB system. Probabilistic benchmarking data were created using the carbon data model framework that assimilates observational times series of leaf area index and maps of woody biomass and soil C. New custom uncertainty metrics assess if models are within benchmark uncertainties. Simulations are better in homogeneous areas of vegetation type, and are less robust at ecotones between biomes, likely due to disturbance effects and parameter errors. Gross biosphere‐atmosphere fluxes are robustly modelled across Brazil. However, benchmark uncertainty is too high on net ecosystem exchange to provide an accurate evaluation of the models. The LSMs have significant differences in internal carbon allocation and the dynamics of the different C pools. JULES models dead C stocks more accurately while living C stocks are best resolved for INLAND. JULES' over‐estimate of the C wood pool results from over‐estimation of both inputs to wood and the transit time of wood. INLAND's under‐estimate of dead C stocks arises from an under‐estimate of the transit time of dead organic matter. The models are better at simulating annual averages than seasonal variation of fluxes. Analyses of monthly net C exchanges show that INLAND correctly simulates seasonality, but over‐estimates amplitudes, whereas JULES correctly simulates the annual amplitudes, but is out of phase with the benchmark.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2692-4587 , 2692-4587
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3059847-3
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  • 9
    In: Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 133, No. 4 ( 2021-08), p. 973-987
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0177-7971 , 1436-5065
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 863-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1462145-9
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 10
    In: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Elsevier BV, Vol. 182-183 ( 2013-12), p. 145-155
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0168-1923
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2012165-9
    SSG: 23
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