In:
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 15, No. 3 ( 2021-3-24), p. e0009233-
Abstract:
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a global infectious disease; particularly, it has a high disease burden in China. This study was aimed to explore the temporal and spatial distribution of the disease by analyzing its epidemiological characteristics, and to calculate the early warning signals of HFMD by using a logistic differential equation (LDE) model. Methods This study included datasets of HFMD cases reported in seven regions in Mainland China. The early warning time (week) was calculated using the LDE model with the key parameters estimated by fitting with the data. Two key time points, “epidemic acceleration week (EAW)” and “recommended warning week (RWW)”, were calculated to show the early warning time. Results The mean annual incidence of HFMD cases per 100,000 per year was 218, 360, 223, 124, and 359 in Hunan Province, Shenzhen City, Xiamen City, Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunxiao County across the southern regions, respectively and 60 and 34 in Jilin Province and Longde County across the northern regions, respectively. The LDE model fitted well with the reported data ( R 2 〉 0.65, P 〈 0.001). Distinct temporal patterns were found across geographical regions: two early warning signals emerged in spring and autumn every year across southern regions while one early warning signals in summer every year across northern regions. Conclusions The disease burden of HFMD in China is still high, with more cases occurring in the southern regions. The early warning of HFMD across the seven regions is heterogeneous. In the northern regions, it has a high incidence during summer and peaks in June every year; in the southern regions, it has two waves every year with the first wave during spring spreading faster than the second wave during autumn. Our findings can help predict and prepare for active periods of HFMD.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1935-2735
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.g001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.g002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.g003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.g004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.g005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.g006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.g007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.g008
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.g009
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.g010
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.g011
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.g012
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.g013
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.t001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.t002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009233.s001
Language:
English
Publisher:
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publication Date:
2021
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2429704-5
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