In:
Journal of Physics: Conference Series, IOP Publishing, Vol. 1449, No. 1 ( 2020-01-01), p. 012124-
Abstract:
Medium and long-term load forecast takes the annual and monthly as the main time series, and regards the power demand indicators (such as the monthly power amount, monthly electrical power and so on) as the forecast content, thus being of great significance for reasonably formulating the power system planning, arranging the mid-term operation plan of the power system, reducing operation cost and improving power supply reliability. On the basis of the early warning analysis of power demand, this paper makes some attempts in combining early warning and forecasting work, and proposes a kind of medium and long-term load forecasting method integrating several early warning indicators. The method integrates multiple internal and external factors in the system such as the early warning leading industry and economic factor, uses the principle of minimum information loss to comprehensively utilize multiple early warning information under the unified scale, and can give probabilistic and accurate prediction results. The method has a clear physical background and economic meaning, and it is a new exploration of the medium and long-term load forecasting mechanism.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1742-6588
,
1742-6596
DOI:
10.1088/1742-6596/1449/1/012124
Language:
Unknown
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Publication Date:
2020
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2166409-2
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