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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  Nature Climate Change Vol. 12, No. 7 ( 2022-07), p. 655-661
    Details
    In: Nature Climate Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 12, No. 7 ( 2022-07), p. 655-661
    Abstract: Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1758-678X , 1758-6798
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01388-4
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2603450-5
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends
    Wiley ; 2019
    In:  WIREs Climate Change Vol. 10, No. 5 ( 2019-09)
    Details
    In: WIREs Climate Change, Wiley, Vol. 10, No. 5 ( 2019-09)
    Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have severe impacts on Australia. These include extreme rainfall and winds, and coastal hazards such as destructive waves, storm surges, estuarine flooding, and coastal erosion. Various aspects of TCs in the Australian region have been documented over the past several decades. In recent years, increasing emphasis has been placed on human‐induced climate change effects on TCs in the Australian region and elsewhere around the globe. However, large natural variability and the lack of consistent long‐term TC observations have often complicated the detection and attribution of TC trends. Efforts have been made to improve TC records for Australia over the past decades, but it is still unclear whether such records are sufficient to provide better understanding of the impacts of natural climate variability and climate change. It is important to note that the damage costs associated with tropical cyclones in Australia have increased in recent decades and will continue to increase due to growing coastal settlement and infrastructure development. Therefore, it is critical that any coastal infrastructure planning and engineering decisions, as well as disaster management decisions, strongly consider future risks from tropical cyclones. A better understanding of tropical cyclones in a changing climate will provide key insights that can help mitigate impacts of tropical cyclones on vulnerable communities. An objective assessment of the Australian TCs at regional scale and its link with climate variability and change using improved and up‐to‐date data records is more imperative now than before. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends  〉  Modern Climate Change
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1757-7780 , 1757-7799
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/wcc.v10.5
    DOI: 10.1002/wcc.602
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2532966-2
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 96, No. 9 ( 2015-09), p. 1440-
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, No. 9 ( 2015-09), p. 1440-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00232.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 96, No. 6 ( 2015-06-01), p. 997-1017
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, No. 6 ( 2015-06-01), p. 997-1017
    Abstract: While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased compared with experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased. Experiments where only carbon dioxide is increased are more likely to demonstrate a decrease in tropical cyclone numbers, similar to the decreases simulated by many climate models for a future, warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00242.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Different Impact of Positive-Neutral and Negative-Neutral ENSO Regimes on Australian Tropical Cyclones
    American Meteorological Society ; 2013
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 26, No. 20 ( 2013-10-15), p. 8008-8016
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 26, No. 20 ( 2013-10-15), p. 8008-8016
    Abstract: The number of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Australian region exhibits a large variation between different ENSO regimes. While the difference in TC numbers and spatial distribution of genesis locations between the canonical El Niño and La Niña regimes is well known, the authors demonstrate that a statistically significant difference in TC numbers also exists between the recently identified negative-neutral and positive-neutral regimes. Compared to the negative-neutral and La Niña regimes, significantly fewer TCs form in the Australian region during the positive-neutral regime, particularly in the eastern subregion. This difference is attributed to concomitant changes in various large-scale environmental conditions such as sea level pressure, relative vorticity, vertical motion, and sea surface temperature.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00769.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Impact of Different ENSO Regimes on Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones
    American Meteorological Society ; 2013
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 26, No. 2 ( 2013-01-15), p. 600-608
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 26, No. 2 ( 2013-01-15), p. 600-608
    Abstract: The influence of different types of ENSO on tropical cyclone (TC) interannual variability in the central southwest Pacific region (5°–25°S, 170°E–170°W) is investigated. Using empirical orthogonal function analysis and an agglomerative hierarchical clustering of early tropical cyclone season Pacific sea surface temperature, years are classified into four separate regimes (i.e., canonical El Niño, canonical La Niña, positive-neutral, and negative-neutral) for the period between 1970 and 2009. These regimes are found to have a large impact on TC genesis over the central southwest Pacific region. Both the canonical El Niño and the positive-neutral years have increased numbers of cyclones, with an average of 4.3 yr−1 for positive-neutral and 4 yr−1 for canonical El Niño. In contrast, during a La Niña and negative-neutral events, substantially fewer TCs (averages of ~2.2 and 2.4 yr−1, respectively) are observed in the central southwest Pacific. The enhancement of TC numbers in both canonical El Niño and positive-neutral years is associated with the extension of favorable low-level cyclonic relative vorticity, and low vertical wind shear eastward across the date line. Relative humidity and SST are also very conducive for genesis in this region during canonical El Niño and positive-neutral events. The patterns are quite different, however, with the favorable conditions concentrated in the date line region for the positive-neutral, as compared with conditions farther eastward for the canonical El Niño regime. A significant result of the study is the demonstration that ENSO-neutral events can be objectively clustered into two separate regimes, each with very different impacts on TC genesis.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00114.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2017
    In:  Nature Climate Change Vol. 7, No. 2 ( 2017-2), p. 123-127
    Details
    In: Nature Climate Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 7, No. 2 ( 2017-2), p. 123-127
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1758-678X , 1758-6798
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3181
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2603450-5
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    An Assessment of Multimodel Simulations for the Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Its Association with ENSO
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 29, No. 18 ( 2016-09-15), p. 6401-6423
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 29, No. 18 ( 2016-09-15), p. 6401-6423
    Abstract: An assessment of simulations of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as a subsequent diagnosis for possible causes of model biases generated from simulated large-scale climate conditions, are documented in the paper. The model experiments are carried out by the Hurricane Work Group under the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) using five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members forced by the observed sea surface temperature and spanning the 28-yr period from 1982 to 2009. The results show GISS and GFDL model ensemble means best simulate the interannual variability of TCs, and the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) follows. Also, the MME has the closest climate mean annual number of WNP TCs and the smallest root-mean-square error to the observation. Most GCMs can simulate the interannual variability of WNP TCs well, with stronger TC activities during two types of El Niño—namely, eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño—and weaker activity during La Niña. However, none of the models capture the differences in TC activity between EP and CP El Niño as are shown in observations. The inability of models to distinguish the differences in TC activities between the two types of El Niño events may be due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0720.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?
    American Meteorological Society ; 2014
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 27, No. 15 ( 2014-08-01), p. 5673-5692
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 27, No. 15 ( 2014-08-01), p. 5673-5692
    Abstract: The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multimodel ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Niño and stronger activity during La Niña. For CP El Niño, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Niño. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region during CP El Niño as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00625.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Tropical cyclone trends in the Australian region
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2008
    In:  Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems Vol. 9, No. 7 ( 2008-07)
    Details
    In: Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 9, No. 7 ( 2008-07)
    Abstract: Tropical cyclone trends in the Australian region are examined using the Bureau of Meteorology best track data. Here the focus is on analyzing differences in trends between the eastern and western subregions of the Australian formation region, under the assumption that any spurious trends in the best track data due to changes in observational practices would be less noticeable in differences between two adjacent portions. Substantial differences in trends are found between the two subregions, with the number, average maximum intensity, and duration at the severe category intensities of tropical cyclones increasing since 1980 in the west but decreasing (in number) or exhibiting no trend (in intensity, severe category duration) in the east. Analyses of trends in atmospheric variables known to be related to tropical cyclone characteristics also indicate substantial differences between the two subregions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1525-2027 , 1525-2027
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2007GC001804
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2008
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2027201-7
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