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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Short-Term Precipitation and Temperature Trends along an Elevation Gradient in Northeastern Puerto Rico
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Earth Interactions Vol. 19, No. 3 ( 2015-01-01), p. 1-33
    Details
    In: Earth Interactions, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 19, No. 3 ( 2015-01-01), p. 1-33
    Abstract: As is true of many tropical regions, northeastern Puerto Rico is an ecologically sensitive area with biological life that is highly elevation dependent on precipitation and temperature. Climate change has the potential to increase the risk of losing endemic species and habitats. Consequently, it is important to explore the pattern of trends in precipitation and temperature along an elevation gradient. Statistical derivatives of a frequently sampled dataset of precipitation and temperature at 20 sites along an elevation gradient of 1000 m in northeastern Puerto Rico were examined for trends from 2001 to 2013 with nonparametric methods accounting for annual periodic variations such as yearly weather cycles. Overall daily precipitation had an increasing trend of around 0.1 mm day−1 yr−1. The driest months of the annual dry, early, and late rainfall seasons showed a small increasing trend in the precipitation (around 0.1 mm day−1 yr−1). There was strong evidence that precipitation in the driest months of each rainfall season increased faster at higher elevations (0.02 mm day−1 more increase for 100-m elevation gain) and some evidence for the same pattern in precipitation in all months of the year but at half the rate. Temperature had a positive trend in the daily minimum (around 0.02°C yr−1) and a negative trend in the daily maximum whose size is likely an order of magnitude larger than the size of the daily minimum trend. Physical mechanisms behind the trends may be related to climate change; longer-term studies will need to be undertaken in order to assess the future climatic trajectory of tropical forests.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1087-3562
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/EI-D-14-0023.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2025258-4
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Near-Surface Atmospheric Behavior over Complex Tropical Topography in Puerto Rico Dominated by Seasonal Patterns Despite Frequent Environmental Changes
    American Meteorological Society ; 2022
    In:  Earth Interactions Vol. 26, No. 1 ( 2022-01), p. 151-167
    Details
    In: Earth Interactions, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 26, No. 1 ( 2022-01), p. 151-167
    Abstract: Understanding near-surface atmospheric behavior in the tropics is imperative given the role of tropical energy fluxes in Earth’s climate cycles, but this area is complicated by a land–atmosphere interaction that includes rugged topography, seasonal weather drivers, and frequent environmental disturbances. This study examines variation in near-surface atmospheric behaviors in northeastern Puerto Rico using a synthesis of data from lowland and montane locations under different land covers (forest, urban, and rural) during 2008–21, when a severe drought, large hurricanes (Irma and Maria), and the COVID-19 mobility-reducing lockdown occurred. Ceilometer, weather, air quality, radiosonde, and satellite data were analyzed for annual patterns and monthly time series of data and data correlations. The results showed a system that is strongly dominated by easterly trade winds transmitting regional oceanic patterns over terrain. Environmental disturbances affected land–atmosphere interaction for short time periods after events. Events that reduce the land signature (reducing greenness: e.g., drought and hurricanes, or reducing land pollution: e.g., COVID-19 lockdown) were evidenced to strengthen the transmission of the oceanic pattern. The most variation in near-surface atmospheric behavior was seen in the mountainous areas that were influenced by both factors: trade winds, and terrain-induced orographic lifting. As an exception to the rest of the near-surface atmospheric behavior, pollutants other than ozone did not correlate positively or negatively with stronger trade winds at all sites across the region. Instead, these pollutants were hypothesized to be more anthropogenically influenced. Once COVID-19 lockdown had persisted for 3 months, urban pollution decreased and cloud base may have increased.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1087-3562
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/EI-D-21-0020.1
    DOI: 10.1175/EI-D-21-0020.s1
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2025258-4
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Hydrologic Model Sensitivity to Temporal Aggregation of Meteorological Forcing Data: A Case Study for the Contiguous United States
    American Meteorological Society ; 2022
    In:  Journal of Hydrometeorology Vol. 23, No. 2 ( 2022-02), p. 167-183
    Details
    In: Journal of Hydrometeorology, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 23, No. 2 ( 2022-02), p. 167-183
    Abstract: Surface meteorological analyses are an essential input (termed “forcing”) for hydrologic modeling. This study investigated the sensitivity of different hydrologic model configurations to temporal variations of seven forcing variables (precipitation rate, air temperature, longwave radiation, specific humidity, shortwave radiation, wind speed, and air pressure). Specifically, the effects of temporally aggregating hourly forcings to hourly daily average forcings were examined. The analysis was based on 14 hydrological outputs from the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) model for the 671 Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) basins across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Results demonstrated that the hydrologic model sensitivity to temporally aggregating the forcing inputs varies across model output variables and model locations. We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample model parameters from eight combinations of three influential model physics choices (three model decisions with two options for each decision, i.e., eight model configurations). Results showed that the choice of model physics can change the relative influence of forcing on model outputs and the forcing importance may not be dependent on the parameter space. This allows for model output sensitivity to forcing aggregation to be tested prior to parameter calibration. More generally, this work provides a comprehensive analysis of the dependence of modeled outcomes on input forcing behavior, providing insight into the regional variability of forcing variable dominance on modeled outputs across CONUS.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1525-755X , 1525-7541
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0111.1
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2042176-X
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    CORRIGENDUM
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Earth Interactions Vol. 20, No. 13 ( 2016-04-01), p. 1-2
    Details
    In: Earth Interactions, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 20, No. 13 ( 2016-04-01), p. 1-2
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1087-3562
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/EI-D-15-0044.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2025258-4
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Tropical Forest Microclimatic Changes: Hurricane, Drought, and 15–20 Year Climate Trend Effects on Elevational Gradient Temperature and Moisture
    MDPI AG ; 2023
    In:  Forests Vol. 14, No. 2 ( 2023-02-06), p. 325-
    Details
    In: Forests, MDPI AG, Vol. 14, No. 2 ( 2023-02-06), p. 325-
    Abstract: The effects of hurricanes Irma and Maria and a severe drought on the temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture (under canopy and in the open) were calculated at 22 sites from 0–1045 m in northeastern Puerto Rico from 2001–2021, against the background short-term trend. Median and minimum air temperatures increased uniformly across the elevational gradient, 1.6 times as fast in the air under the canopy (+0.08 °C/yr) and 2.2 times as fast in the soil under the canopy (+0.11 °C/yr) as for air temperature in the open. There were no substantial moisture trends (average decrease 〈 0.01 mm/yr). The peak effect of the hurricanes on under-canopy air temperature was the same as under-canopy soil temperature at 1000 m (+3, 0.7, 0.4 °C for maximum, median, minimum) but air maximum and minimum temperature peak effects were twice as high at 0 m (and soil temperatures stayed constant). Soil temperature hurricane recovery took longer at higher elevations. The peak effect of the hurricanes and the drought on the soil moisture was the same (but in opposite directions, ±0%), except for the wettest months where drought peak effect was larger and increasing with elevation. Differing patterns with elevation indicate different ecosystem stresses.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1999-4907
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.3390/f14020325
    Language: English
    Publisher: MDPI AG
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2527081-3
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Hurricane Maria in the U.S. Caribbean: Disturbance Forces, Variation of Effects, and Implications for Future Storms
    MDPI AG ; 2018
    In:  Remote Sensing Vol. 10, No. 9 ( 2018-08-31), p. 1386-
    Details
    In: Remote Sensing, MDPI AG, Vol. 10, No. 9 ( 2018-08-31), p. 1386-
    Abstract: The impact of Hurricane Maria on the U.S. Caribbean was used to study the causes of remotely-sensed spatial variation in the effects of (1) vegetation index loss and (2) landslide occurrence. The vegetation index is a measure of canopy ‘greenness’, a combination of leaf chlorophyll, leaf area, canopy cover and structure. A generalized linear model was made for each kind of effect, using idealized maps of the hurricane forces, along with three landscape characteristics that were significantly associated. In each model, one of these characteristics was forest fragmentation, and another was a measure of disturbance-propensity. For the greenness loss model, the hurricane force was wind, the disturbance-propensity measure was initial greenness, and the third landscape characteristic was fraction forest cover. For the landslide occurrence model, the hurricane force was rain, the disturbance-propensity measure was amount of land slope, and the third landscape characteristic was soil clay content. The model of greenness loss had a pseudo R2 of 0.73 and showed the U.S. Caribbean lost 31% of its initial greenness from the hurricane, with 51% lost from the initial in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF) from Hurricane Maria along with Hurricane Irma. More greenness disturbance was seen in areas with less wind sheltering, higher elevation and topographic sides. The model of landslide occurrence had a pseudo R2 of 0.53 and showed the U.S. Caribbean had 34% of its area and 52% of the LEF area with a landslide density of at least one in 1 km2 from Hurricane Maria. Four experiments with parameters from previous storms of wind speed, storm duration, rainfall, and forest structure over the same storm path and topographic landscape were run as examples of possible future scenarios. While intensity of the storm makes by far the largest scenario difference, forest fragmentation makes a sizable difference especially in vulnerable areas of high clay content or high wind susceptibility. This study showed the utility of simple hurricane force calculations connected with landscape characteristics and remote-sensing data to determine forest susceptibility to hurricane effects.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2072-4292
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.3390/rs10091386
    Language: English
    Publisher: MDPI AG
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2513863-7
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2018
    In:  Climatic Change Vol. 146, No. 1-2 ( 2018-1), p. 117-131
    Details
    In: Climatic Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 146, No. 1-2 ( 2018-1), p. 117-131
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0165-0009 , 1573-1480
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2045-6
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 751086-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1477652-2
    SSG: 14
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    Climate change and water resources in a tropical island system: propagation of uncertainty from statistically downscaled climate models to hydrologic models
    Wiley ; 2016
    In:  International Journal of Climatology Vol. 36, No. 9 ( 2016-07), p. 3370-3383
    Details
    In: International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, Vol. 36, No. 9 ( 2016-07), p. 3370-3383
    Abstract: Many tropical islands have limited water resources with historically increasing demand, all potentially affected by a changing climate. The effects of climate change on island hydrology are difficult to model due to steep local precipitation gradients and sparse data. This work uses 10 statistically downscaled general circulation models ( GCMs ) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios to evaluate the uncertainty propagated from GCMs in projecting the effects of climate change on water resources in a tropical island system. The assessment is conducted using a previously configured hydrologic model, the Precipitation Runoff Modelling System ( PRMS ) for Puerto Rico. Projected climate data and their modelled hydrologic variables versus historical measurements and their modelled hydrologic variables are found to have empirical distribution functions that are statistically different with less than 1 year of daily data aggregation. Thus, only annual averages of the projected hydrologic variables are employed as completely bias‐corrected model outputs. The magnitude of the projected total flow decreases in the four regions covering Puerto Rico, but with a large range of uncertainty depending on the makeup of the GCM ensemble. The multi‐model mean projected total flow decreases by 49–88% of historical amounts from the 1960s to the 2090s for the high emissions scenarios and by 39–79% for the low emissions scenarios. Subsurface flow contributions decreased the least and groundwater flow contributions decreased the most across the island. At locations critical to water supply for human use, projected streamflow is shown to decrease substantially below projected withdrawals by 2099.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0899-8418 , 1097-0088
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.2016.36.issue-9
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.4560
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1491204-1
    SSG: 14
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Effects of Changing Land Cover on Streamflow Simulation in Puerto Rico
    Wiley ; 2014
    In:  JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association Vol. 50, No. 6 ( 2014-12), p. 1575-1593
    Details
    In: JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Wiley, Vol. 50, No. 6 ( 2014-12), p. 1575-1593
    Abstract: This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of P uerto R ico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System ( PRMS ) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from four land cover scenes for the period 1953‐2012. The PRMS simulations based on static land cover illustrated consistent differences in simulated streamflow across the island. It was determined that the scale of the analysis makes a difference: large regions with localized areas that have undergone dramatic land cover change may show negligible difference in total streamflow, but streamflow simulations using dynamic land cover parameters for a highly altered subwatershed clearly demonstrate the effects of changing land cover on simulated streamflow. Incorporating dynamic parameterization in these highly altered watersheds can reduce the predictive uncertainty in simulations of streamflow using PRMS . Hydrologic models that do not consider the projected changes in land cover may be inadequate for water resource management planning for future conditions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1093-474X , 1752-1688
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1111/jawr.2014.50.issue-6
    DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12227
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2090051-X
    SSG: 14
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  • 10
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    Online Resource
    Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2017
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 17, No. 11 ( 2017-06-16), p. 7245-7259
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 17, No. 11 ( 2017-06-16), p. 7245-7259
    Abstract: Abstract. The degree to which cloud immersion provides water in addition to rainfall, suppresses transpiration, and sustains tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) during rainless periods is not well understood. Climate and land use changes represent a threat to these forests if cloud base altitude rises as a result of regional warming or deforestation. To establish a baseline for quantifying future changes in cloud base, we installed a ceilometer at 100 m altitude in the forest upwind of the TMCF that occupies an altitude range from ∼ 600 m to the peaks at 1100 m in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. Airport Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) ceilometer data, radiosonde data, and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite data were obtained to investigate seasonal cloud base dynamics, altitude of the trade-wind inversion (TWI), and typical cloud thickness for the surrounding Caribbean region. Cloud base is rarely quantified near mountains, so these results represent a first look at seasonal and diurnal cloud base dynamics for the TMCF. From May 2013 to August 2016, cloud base was lowest during the midsummer dry season, and cloud bases were lower than the mountaintops as often in the winter dry season as in the wet seasons. The lowest cloud bases most frequently occurred at higher elevation than 600 m, from 740 to 964 m. The Luquillo forest low cloud base altitudes were higher than six other sites in the Caribbean by ∼ 200–600 m, highlighting the importance of site selection to measure topographic influence on cloud height. Proximity to the oceanic cloud system where shallow cumulus clouds are seasonally invariant in altitude and cover, along with local trade-wind orographic lifting and cloud formation, may explain the dry season low clouds. The results indicate that climate change threats to low-elevation TMCFs are not limited to the dry season; changes in synoptic-scale weather patterns that increase frequency of drought periods during the wet seasons (periods of higher cloud base) may also impact ecosystem health.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-7245-2017
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-7245-2017-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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