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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2016
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 47, No. 7-8 ( 2016-10), p. 2193-2203
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 47, No. 7-8 ( 2016-10), p. 2193-2203
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2016
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 28, No. 22 ( 2015-11-15), p. 8840-8859
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 28, No. 22 ( 2015-11-15), p. 8840-8859
    Abstract: This paper examines trends in the southern annular mode (SAM) and the strength, position, and width of the Southern Hemisphere surface westerly wind jet in observations, reanalyses, and models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). First the period over 1951–2011 is considered, and it is shown that there are differences in the SAM and jet trends between the CMIP5 models, the Hadley Centre gridded SLP (HadSLP2r) dataset, and the Twentieth Century Reanalysis. The relationships between these trends demonstrate that the SAM index cannot be used to directly infer changes in any one kinematic property of the jet. The spatial structure of the observed trends in SLP and zonal winds is shown to be largest, but also most uncertain, in the southeastern Pacific. To constrain this uncertainty six reanalyses are included and compared with station-based observations of SLP. The CMIP5 mean SLP trends generally agree well with the direct observations, despite some climatological biases, while some reanalyses exhibit spuriously large SLP trends. Similarly, over the more reliable satellite era the spatial pattern of CMIP5 SLP trends is in excellent agreement with HadSLP2r, whereas several reanalyses are not. Then surface winds are compared with a satellite-based product, and it is shown that the CMIP5 mean trend is similar to observations in the core region of the westerlies, but that several reanalyses overestimate recent trends. The authors caution that studies examining the impact of wind changes on the Southern Ocean could be biased by these spuriously large trends in reanalysis products.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 3
    In: Nature Communications, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 8, No. 1 ( 2017-04-18)
    Abstract: Peak runoff in streams and rivers of the western United States is strongly influenced by melting of accumulated mountain snowpack. A significant decline in this resource has a direct connection to streamflow, with substantial economic and societal impacts. Observations and reanalyses indicate that between the 1980s and 2000s, there was a 10–20% loss in the annual maximum amount of water contained in the region’s snowpack. Here we show that this loss is consistent with results from a large ensemble of climate simulations forced with natural and anthropogenic changes, but is inconsistent with simulations forced by natural changes alone. A further loss of up to 60% is projected within the next 30 years. Uncertainties in loss estimates depend on the size and the rate of response to continued anthropogenic forcing and the magnitude and phasing of internal decadal variability. The projected losses have serious implications for the hydropower, municipal and agricultural sectors in the region.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2041-1723
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2553671-0
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  • 4
    In: Biogeosciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 18 ( 2023-09-27), p. 3919-3941
    Abstract: Abstract. The global ocean takes up nearly a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions annually, but the variability in this uptake at regional scales remains poorly understood. Here we use a neural network approach to interpolate sparse observations, creating a monthly gridded seawater partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) data product from January 1998 to December 2019, at 1/12∘ × 1/12∘ spatial resolution, in the northeast Pacific open ocean, a net sink region. The data product (ANN-NEP; NCEI Accession 0277836) was created from pCO2 observations within the 2021 version of the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) and a range of predictor variables acting as proxies for processes affecting pCO2 to create nonlinear relationships to interpolate observations at a spatial resolution 4 times greater than leading global products and with better overall performance. In moving to a higher resolution, we show that the internal division of training data is the most important parameter for reducing overfitting. Using our pCO2 product, wind speed, and atmospheric CO2, we evaluate air–sea CO2 flux variability. On sub-decadal to decadal timescales, we find that the upwelling strength of the subpolar Alaskan Gyre, driven by large-scale atmospheric forcing, acts as the primary control on air–sea CO2 flux variability (r2=0.93, p〈0.01). In the northern part of our study region, divergence from atmospheric CO2 is enhanced by increased local wind stress curl, enhancing upwelling and entrainment of naturally CO2-rich subsurface waters, leading to decade-long intervals of strong winter outgassing. During recent Pacific marine heat waves from 2013 on, we find enhanced atmospheric CO2 uptake (by as much as 45 %) due to limited wintertime entrainment. Our product estimates long-term surface ocean pCO2 increase at a rate below the atmospheric trend (1.4 ± 0.1 µatm yr−1) with the slowest increase in the center of the subpolar gyre where there is strong interaction with subsurface waters. This mismatch suggests the northeast Pacific Ocean sink for atmospheric CO2 may be increasing.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1726-4189
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2158181-2
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2018
    In:  npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Vol. 1, No. 1 ( 2018-04-03)
    In: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 1, No. 1 ( 2018-04-03)
    Abstract: We present a summary report of the CLIVAR Early Career Scientists Symposium, a three-day event associated with the CLIVAR Open Science Conference held in Qingdao, China during September 2016. The Symposium aimed to capture the ideas of early career researchers on pressing science priorities, imminent challenges, and emerging opportunities to help guide the future evolution of CLIVAR. We identified the need for improving process-based understanding and predictability of regional climate variability and change, moving toward seamless predictions, and improving and expanding global observations. We emphasize the need for increasingly open science, including universal access to data, code, and publications as well as opportunities for international cooperation and exchange. As the next generation of climate scientists, we are dedicated to overcome the challenges outlined in this summary and are looking forward to advancing CLIVAR’s mission and activities.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2397-3722
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2925628-8
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2018
    In:  Nature Climate Change Vol. 8, No. 5 ( 2018-5), p. 404-408
    In: Nature Climate Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 8, No. 5 ( 2018-5), p. 404-408
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1758-678X , 1758-6798
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2603450-5
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2018
    In:  Nature Geoscience Vol. 11, No. 11 ( 2018-11), p. 836-841
    In: Nature Geoscience, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 11, No. 11 ( 2018-11), p. 836-841
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1752-0894 , 1752-0908
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2396648-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2405323-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2021
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 48, No. 6 ( 2021-03-28)
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 48, No. 6 ( 2021-03-28)
    Abstract: COVID‐related emissions reductions will be imperceptible in surface ocean pH observations The CanESM5 COVID ensemble predicts a unique fingerprint of COVID‐related emissions reductions in global mean ΔpCO 2 (p ‐ p ) The fingerprint is potentially detectable in global‐scale observations of ΔpCO 2 , but only with large emissions reductions
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2021
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 48, No. 22 ( 2021-11-28)
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 48, No. 22 ( 2021-11-28)
    Abstract: Climate model simulations suggest a lagged response in the global growth rate of atmospheric CO 2 due to COVID‐19 emissions reductions Detection of this reduction in observations is hampered by internal variability combined with reduced ocean and land uptake of CO 2 Our results foreshadow the challenges of detecting the effects of CO 2 mitigation efforts to meet the Paris climate agreement
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2023
    In:  Earth System Dynamics Vol. 14, No. 2 ( 2023-04-11), p. 383-398
    In: Earth System Dynamics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 14, No. 2 ( 2023-04-11), p. 383-398
    Abstract: Abstract. As a major sink for anthropogenic carbon, the oceans slow the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and regulate climate change. Future changes in the ocean carbon sink, and its uncertainty at a global and regional scale, are key to understanding the future evolution of the climate. Here we report on the changes and uncertainties in the historical and future ocean carbon sink using output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble and compare to an observation-based product. We show that future changes in the ocean carbon sink are concentrated in highly active regions – 70 % of the total sink occurs in less than 40 % of the global ocean. High pattern correlations between the historical uptake and projected future changes in the carbon sink indicate that future uptake will largely continue to occur in historically important regions. We conduct a detailed breakdown of the sources of uncertainty in the future carbon sink by region. Consistent with CMIP5 models, scenario uncertainty dominates at the global scale, followed by model uncertainty and then internal variability. We demonstrate how the importance of internal variability increases moving to smaller spatial scales and go on to show how the breakdown between scenario, model, and internal variability changes between different ocean regions, governed by different processes. Using the CanESM5 large ensemble we show that internal variability changes with time based on the scenario, breaking the widely employed assumption of stationarity. As with the mean sink, we show that uncertainty in the future ocean carbon sink is also concentrated in the known regions of historical uptake. Patterns in the signal-to-noise ratio have implications for observational detectability and time of emergence, which we show to vary both in space and with scenario. We show that the largest variations in emergence time across scenarios occur in regions where the ocean sink is less sensitive to forcing – outside of the highly active regions. In agreement with CMIP5 studies, our results suggest that for a better chance of early detection of changes in the ocean carbon sink and to efficiently reduce uncertainty in future carbon uptake, highly active regions, including the northwestern Atlantic and the Southern Ocean, should receive additional focus for modeling and observational efforts.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2190-4987
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2578793-7
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