In:
PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 21, No. 8 ( 2023-8-22), p. e3002108-
Abstract:
The severity of infectious disease outbreaks is governed by patterns of human contact, which vary by geography, social organization, mobility, access to technology and healthcare, economic development, and culture. Whereas globalized societies and urban centers exhibit characteristics that can heighten vulnerability to pandemics, small-scale subsistence societies occupying remote, rural areas may be buffered. Accordingly, voluntary collective isolation has been proposed as one strategy to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 and other pandemics on small-scale Indigenous populations with minimal access to healthcare infrastructure. To assess the vulnerability of such populations and the viability of interventions such as voluntary collective isolation, we simulate and analyze the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection among Amazonian forager-horticulturalists in Bolivia using a stochastic network metapopulation model parameterized with high-resolution empirical data on population structure, mobility, and contact networks. Our model suggests that relative isolation offers little protection at the population level (expected approximately 80% cumulative incidence), and more remote communities are not conferred protection via greater distance from outside sources of infection, due to common features of small-scale societies that promote rapid disease transmission such as high rates of travel and dense social networks. Neighborhood density, central household location in villages, and household size greatly increase the individual risk of infection. Simulated interventions further demonstrate that without implausibly high levels of centralized control, collective isolation is unlikely to be effective, especially if it is difficult to restrict visitation between communities as well as travel to outside areas. Finally, comparison of model results to empirical COVID-19 outcomes measured via seroassay suggest that our theoretical model is successful at predicting outbreak severity at both the population and community levels. Taken together, these findings suggest that the social organization and relative isolation from urban centers of many rural Indigenous communities offer little protection from pandemics and that standard control measures, including vaccination, are required to counteract effects of tight-knit social structures characteristic of small-scale populations.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1545-7885
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.g001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.g002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.g003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.g004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.g005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.g006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.g007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.t001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.t002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.t003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.s001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.s002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.s003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.s004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.s005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.s006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.s007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.s008
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.s009
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.s010
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.s011
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.r001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.r002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.r003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.3002108.r004
Language:
English
Publisher:
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publication Date:
2023
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2126773-X
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