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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Emerald ; 2014
    In:  foresight Vol. 16, No. 6 ( 2014-11-10), p. 527-549
    In: foresight, Emerald, Vol. 16, No. 6 ( 2014-11-10), p. 527-549
    Abstract: – The purposes of this paper are as follows. Part one examines the role of denialism in the context of proposals advanced through the much-abused Limits to Growth (LtG) project. Part two uses three sets of criteria (domains of reality, worldviews and values) to characterise some of the interior human and social aspects of the “denial machine.” It uses these criteria to address some vital, but currently under-appreciated “interior” aspects of descent. (N.B. A succinct “primer” or overview of the concept and underpinning rationale for notions of “descent pathways” is provided in the introduction to this special issue.) Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on a number of authoritative sources that track the dimensions of global change and, specifically, the ways that humanity is tracking towards Dystopian overshoot-and-collapse futures. The significance of the LtG project is assessed in this context. Part two employs the criteria noted above to identify and open out the centrality of the human and cultural interiors. Findings – Responses to the LtG project are shown to have deprived humanity of the clarity and will to respond effectively to the emerging global emergency. The rise of climate change denialism has followed suit and made effective responses increasingly difficult. A new focus, however, on some of the dynamics of reality domains, worldviews and values, clarifies both the nature of the problem and prefigures a range of solutions, some of which are briefly outlined. Research limitations/implications – This is primarily a conceptual paper that suggests a range of practical responses. For example, re-purposing parts of the current information technology (IT) infrastructure away from financial and economic indices to those tracking the health of the planet. Also translating the case put forward here for a new generation of Institutions of Foresight (IoFs) into real-world start-ups and examples. Further research is needed into the uses and limitations both of positive and negative views of futures. It is suggested that the latter have more value than is commonly realised. Practical implications – In addition to those stated above, the practical implications include new uses for IT infrastructure based on worldcentric – rather than financial and economic worldviews; designing and implementing a new generation of IoFs; and finding new ways to inform the public of impending Dystopian outcomes without exacerbating avoidance and depression. Social implications – The social implications are profound. Currently, humanity has allowed itself to “tune out” and ignore many of the well-founded “signals” (from the global system) and warnings (from those who have observed and tracked real-world changes). As a result, it has outgrown the capacity of the planet to support the current population, let alone the 10 billion currently projected by the United Nations (UN). Something must give. Applied foresight can provide essential lead time to act before human actions are overwhelmed by forces beyond its control. Originality/value – The paper draws together material from hitherto disparate sources to assess the LtG project. It also deploys key concepts from an integral perspective that shed new light on human and cultural forces that determine how people respond to the prospect of Dystopian futures. In so doing, it provides insight into why we are where we are and also into some of the means by which humanity can respond. Specifically, it suggests a shift from collapse narratives to those of descent.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1463-6689
    Language: English
    Publisher: Emerald
    Publication Date: 2014
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Emerald ; 2014
    In:  foresight Vol. 16, No. 6 ( 2014-11-10), p. 485-495
    In: foresight, Emerald, Vol. 16, No. 6 ( 2014-11-10), p. 485-495
    Abstract: – The purpose of this special issue is first to highlight the need for wider understanding of the “civilisational challenge” facing humanity, as it encounters and then exceeds significant limits to growth. The second is to present material that provides grounds for developing effective responses. Design/methodology/approach – The issue draws on evidence from previous research, economic modelling and a range of other sources to investigate the hypothesis that humanity is heading towards an “overshoot and collapse” future. It further suggests that a useful way of responding is to explore the possibility that the prospect of collapse can be moderated or avoided through a process of “conscious descent.” Findings – The main findings are that a very wide spectrum of policies, actions, strategies and options is available that can and should be used to help us avoid the most disastrous manifestations of “overshoot and collapse.” Yet there are also many barriers and impediments that continue to inhibit effective responses. This means that the process of coming to grips with the “civilisational challenge” will take longer and become increasingly costly. Denialism and short term thinking remain embedded in dominant institutions and mainstream practice. Currently, vastly more is miss-spent on various perverse incentives (e.g. advertising, the funding of denial, fossil fuel subsidies) than on securing the future of civilisation. This can be seen as a consequence of outdated values and inadequate worldviews. Research limitations/implications – The contributions here represent a sample from within a rapidly expanding field of enquiry and action. They should therefore be seen as indicating the need for further high quality investigation, work and action. The main implication is that this process needs to be taken seriously, properly resourced and eventually transformed into a mainstream social project. Originality/value – The papers are contributions to an in-depth understanding of a complex and evolving situation. Their value lies in the fact that greater understanding and a commitment to early action are among the most productive investments available to societies vulnerable to the systemic threats outlined here. As such, the special issue evokes a fundamental tenet of foresight work in general. Or to put this in the words of Bertrand de Jouvenel, “the proof of improvidence lies in falling under the empire of necessity.”
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1463-6689
    Language: English
    Publisher: Emerald
    Publication Date: 2014
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    SSG: 3,6
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Emerald ; 2008
    In:  Foresight Vol. 10, No. 4 ( 2008-07-18), p. 4-27
    In: Foresight, Emerald, Vol. 10, No. 4 ( 2008-07-18), p. 4-27
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to consider the view that America is “the land of the future”. It argues that, owing to its sponsorship of a model of development that is exploitive and unsustainable, this is no longer the case and that US futurists, in particular, need to consciously re‐evaluate their roles and work. Design/methodology/approach The paper advances a cultural critique of US hegemony. It considers background myths and their role in creating “American exceptionalism” in various fields, including futures studies. It also critiques free market ideology, the role of corporations, market failures and the economics of exploitation. This leads to issues of truth and power and the view that a continuation of an ideology of “free enterprise” leads to the collapse of the global system. Findings The paper suggests a number of strategies for futurists to consider as ways of opening out their vision beyond current limitations. Practical implications A rationale is outlined that can support shifts in more progressive directions and moves toward more fruitful work. Originality/value The American futures enterprise is currently at risk from its uncritical association with dysfunctions in US society, culture and economy. The paper draws attention to some of these and indicates possible ways forward.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1463-6689
    Language: English
    Publisher: Emerald
    Publication Date: 2008
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  • 4
    In: The Journal of Pediatrics, Elsevier BV, Vol. 259 ( 2023-08), p. 113443-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0022-3476
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2005245-5
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  • 5
    In: JAMA Network Open, American Medical Association (AMA), Vol. 6, No. 5 ( 2023-05-08), p. e2312277-
    Abstract: Meta-analyses suggest that corticosteroids may be associated with increased survival without cerebral palsy in infants at high risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) but are associated with adverse neurologic outcomes in low-risk infants. Whether this association exists in contemporary practice is uncertain because most randomized clinical trials administered corticosteroids earlier and at higher doses than currently recommended. Objective To evaluate whether the pretreatment risk of death or grade 2 or 3 BPD at 36 weeks’ postmenstrual age modified the association between postnatal corticosteroid therapy and death or disability at 2 years’ corrected age in extremely preterm infants. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study analyzed data on 482 matched pairs of infants from 45 participating US hospitals in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network Generic Database (GDB). Infants were included in the cohort if they were born at less than 27 weeks’ gestation between April 1, 2011, and March 31, 2017; survived the first 7 postnatal days; and had 2-year death or developmental follow-up data collected between January 2013 and December 2019. Corticosteroid-treated infants were propensity score matched with untreated controls. Data were analyzed from September 1, 2019, to November 30, 2022. Exposure Systemic corticosteroid therapy to prevent BPD that was initiated between day 8 and day 42 after birth. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was death or moderate to severe neurodevelopmental impairment at 2 years’ corrected age. The secondary outcome was death or moderate to severe cerebral palsy at 2 years’ corrected age. Results A total of 482 matched pairs of infants (mean [SD] gestational age, 24.1 [1.1] weeks]; 270 males [56.0%] ) were included from 656 corticosteroid-treated infants and 2796 potential controls. Most treated infants (363 [75.3%]) received dexamethasone. The risk of death or disability associated with corticosteroid therapy was inversely associated with the estimated pretreatment probability of death or grade 2 or 3 BPD. The risk difference for death or neurodevelopmental impairment associated with corticosteroids decreased by 2.7% (95% CI, 1.9%-3.5%) for each 10% increase in the pretreatment risk of death or grade 2 or 3 BPD. This risk transitioned from estimated net harm to benefit when the pretreatment risk of death or grade 2 or 3 BPD exceeded 53% (95% CI, 44%-61%). For death or cerebral palsy, the risk difference decreased by 3.6% (95% CI, 2.9%-4.4%) for each 10% increase in the risk of death or grade 2 or 3 BPD and transitioned from estimated net harm to benefit at a pretreatment risk of 40% (95% CI, 33%-46%). Conclusions and Relevance Results of this study suggested that corticosteroids were associated with a reduced risk of death or disability in infants at moderate to high pretreatment risk of death or grade 2 or 3 BPD but with possible harm in infants at lower risk.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2574-3805
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Medical Association (AMA)
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2931249-8
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  • 6
    In: JAMA, American Medical Association (AMA), Vol. 327, No. 3 ( 2022-01-18), p. 248-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0098-7484
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Medical Association (AMA)
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2958-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2018410-4
    SSG: 5,21
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  • 7
    In: JAMA Pediatrics, American Medical Association (AMA)
    Abstract: Redirection of care refers to withdrawal, withholding, or limiting escalation of treatment. Whether maternal social determinants of health are associated with redirection of care discussions merits understanding. Objective To examine associations between maternal social determinants of health and redirection of care discussions for infants born extremely preterm. Design, Setting, and Participants This is a retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort of infants born at less than 29 weeks’ gestation between April 2011 and December 2020 at 19 National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network centers in the US. Follow-up occurred between January 2013 and October 2023. Included infants received active treatment at birth and had mothers who identified as Black or White. Race was limited to Black and White based on service disparities between these groups and limited sample size for other races. Maternal social determinant of health exposures were education level (high school nongraduate or graduate), insurance type (public/none or private), race (Black or White), and ethnicity (Hispanic or non-Hispanic). Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was documented discussion about redirection of infant care. Secondary outcomes included subsequent redirection of care occurrence and, for those born at less than 27 weeks’ gestation, death and neurodevelopmental impairment at 22 to 26 months’ corrected age. Results Of the 15 629 infants (mean [SD] gestational age, 26 [2] weeks; 7961 [51%] male) from 13 643 mothers, 2324 (15%) had documented redirection of care discussions. In unadjusted comparisons, there was no significant difference in the percentage of infants with redirection of care discussions by race (Black, 1004/6793 [15%] ; White, 1320/8836 [15%]) or ethnicity (Hispanic, 291/2105 [14%] ; non-Hispanic, 2020/13 408 [15%]). However, after controlling for maternal and neonatal factors, infants whose mothers identified as Black or as Hispanic were less likely to have documented redirection of care discussions than infants whose mothers identified as White (Black vs White adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.84; 95% CI, 0.75-0.96) or as non-Hispanic (Hispanic vs non-Hispanic aOR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.60-0.87). Redirection of care discussion occurrence did not differ by maternal education level or insurance type. Conclusions and Relevance For infants born extremely preterm, redirection of care discussions occurred less often for Black and Hispanic infants than for White and non-Hispanic infants. It is important to explore the possible reasons underlying these differences.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2168-6203
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Medical Association (AMA)
    Publication Date: 2024
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  • 8
    In: Journal of Perinatology, Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Abstract: Extremely preterm (EP) impairment rates are likely underestimated using the Bayley III norm-based thresholds scores and may be better assessed relative to concurrent healthy term reference (TR) infants born in the same hospital. Study design Blinded, certified examiners in the Neonatal Research Network (NRN) evaluated EP survivors and a sample of healthy TR infants recruited near the 2-year assessment age. Results We assessed 1452 EP infants and 183 TR infants. TR-based thresholds showed higher overall EP impairment than Bayley norm-based thresholds (O.R. = 1.86; [95% CI 1.56–2.23], especially for severe impairment (36% vs. 24%; p  ≤ 0.001). Difficulty recruiting TR patients at 2 years extended the study by 14 months and affected their demographics. Conclusion Impairment rates among EP infants appear to be substantially underestimated from Bayley III norms. These rates may be best assessed by comparison with healthy term infants followed with minimal attrition from birth in the same centers. ClinicalTrials.gov ID Term Reference (under the Generic Database Study): NCT00063063
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0743-8346 , 1476-5543
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2007668-X
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  • 9
    In: JAMA Neurology, American Medical Association (AMA), Vol. 78, No. 12 ( 2021-12-01), p. 1484-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2168-6149
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Medical Association (AMA)
    Publication Date: 2021
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  • 10
    In: JAMA Network Open, American Medical Association (AMA), Vol. 6, No. 5 ( 2023-05-31), p. e2315315-
    Abstract: Extremely preterm infants who develop bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) are at a higher risk for adverse pulmonary and neurodevelopmental outcomes. In the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network (NICHD NRN) Hydrocortisone Trial, hydrocortisone neither reduced rates of BPD or death nor increased rates of neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) or death. Objective To determine whether estimated risk for grades 2 to 3 BPD or death is associated with the effect of hydrocortisone on the composite outcomes of (1) grades 2 to 3 BPD or death and (2) moderate or severe NDI or death. Design, Setting, and Participants This secondary post hoc analysis used data from the NICHD NRN Hydrocortisone Trial, which was a double-masked, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial conducted in 19 US academic centers. The NICHD HRN Hydrocortisone Trial enrolled infants born at a gestational age of less than 30 weeks who received mechanical ventilation for at least 7 days, including at the time of enrollment, and who were aged 14 to 28 postnatal days. Infants were enrolled between August 22, 2011, and February 4, 2018, with follow-up between 22 and 26 months of corrected age completed on March 29, 2020. Data were analyzed from September 13, 2021, to March 25, 2023. Intervention Infants were randomized to 10 days of hydrocortisone or placebo treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures Infants’ baseline risk of grades 2 to 3 BPD or death was estimated using the NICHD Neonatal BPD Outcome Estimator. Differences in absolute and relative treatment effects by baseline risk were evaluated using interaction terms in models fitted to the efficacy outcome of grades 2 to 3 BPD or death and the safety outcome of moderate or severe NDI or death by follow-up. Results Among the 799 infants included in the analysis (421 boys [52.7%]), the mean (SD) gestational age was 24.9 (1.5) weeks, and the mean (SD) birth weight was 715 (167) g. The mean estimated baseline risk for grades 2 to 3 BPD or death was 54% (range, 18%-84%) in the study population. The interaction between treatment group and baseline risk was not statistically significant on a relative or absolute scale for grades 2 to 3 BPD or death; the size of the effect ranged from a relative risk of 1.13 (95% CI, 0.82-1.55) in quartile 1 to 0.94 (95% CI, 0.81-1.09) in quartile 4. Similarly, the interaction between treatment group and baseline risk was not significant on a relative or absolute scale for moderate or severe NDI or death; the size of the effect ranged from a relative risk of 1.04 (95% CI, 0.80-1.36) in quartile 1 to 0.99 (95% CI, 0.80-1.22) in quartile 4. Conclusions and Relevance In this secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial, the effect of hydrocortisone vs placebo was not appreciably modified by baseline risk for grades 2 to 3 BPD or death. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01353313
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2574-3805
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Medical Association (AMA)
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2931249-8
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