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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Evaluating Model Simulations of Twentieth-Century Sea-Level Rise. Part II: Regional Sea-Level Changes
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 30, No. 21 ( 2017-11), p. 8565-8593
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 30, No. 21 ( 2017-11), p. 8565-8593
    Abstract: Twentieth-century regional sea level changes are estimated from 12 climate models from phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The output of the CMIP5 climate model simulations was used to calculate the global and regional sea level changes associated with dynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass changes, and ice sheet surface mass balance contributions. The contribution from groundwater depletion, reservoir storage, and dynamic ice sheet mass changes are estimated from observations as they are not simulated by climate models. All contributions are summed, including the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) contribution, and compared to observational estimates from 27 tide gauge records over the twentieth century (1900–2015). A general agreement is found between the simulated sea level and tide gauge records in terms of interannual to multidecadal variability over 1900–2015. But climate models tend to systematically underestimate the observed sea level trends, particularly in the first half of the twentieth century. The corrections based on attributable biases between observations and models that have been identified in Part I of this two-part paper result in an improved explanation of the spatial variability in observed sea level trends by climate models. Climate models show that the spatial variability in sea level trends observed by tide gauge records is dominated by the GIA contribution and the steric contribution over 1900–2015. Climate models also show that it is important to include all contributions to sea level changes as they cause significant local deviations; note, for example, the groundwater depletion around India, which is responsible for the low twentieth-century sea level rise in the region.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0112.1
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0112.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2014
    In:  Climatic Change Vol. 124, No. 1-2 ( 2014-5), p. 317-332
    Details
    In: Climatic Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 124, No. 1-2 ( 2014-5), p. 317-332
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0165-0009 , 1573-1480
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 751086-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1477652-2
    SSG: 14
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100
    IOP Publishing ; 2021
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 16, No. 2 ( 2021-02-01), p. 024045-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 16, No. 2 ( 2021-02-01), p. 024045-
    Abstract: To date, projections of human migration induced by sea-level change (SLC) largely suggest large-scale displacement away from vulnerable coastlines. However, results from our model of Bangladesh suggest counterintuitively that people will continue to migrate toward the vulnerable coastline irrespective of the flooding amplified by future SLC under all emissions scenarios until the end of this century. We developed an empirically calibrated agent-based model of household migration decision-making that captures the multi-faceted push, pull and mooring influences on migration at a household scale. We then exposed ∼4800 000 simulated migrants to 871 scenarios of projected 21st-century coastal flooding under future emissions pathways. Our model does not predict flooding impacts great enough to drive populations away from coastlines in any of the scenarios. One reason is that while flooding does accelerate a transition from agricultural to non-agricultural income opportunities, livelihood alternatives are most abundant in coastal cities. At the same time, some coastal populations are unable to migrate, as flood losses accumulate and reduce the set of livelihood alternatives (so-called ‘trapped’ populations). However, even when we increased access to credit, a commonly-proposed policy lever for incentivizing migration in the face of climate risk, we found that the number of immobile agents actually rose. These findings imply that instead of a straightforward relationship between displacement and migration, projections need to consider the multiple constraints on, and preferences for, mobility. Our model demonstrates that decision-makers seeking to affect migration outcomes around SLC would do well to consider individual-level adaptive behaviors and motivations that evolve through time, as well as the potential for unintended behavioral responses.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abdc5b
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2012
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 38, No. 5-6 ( 2012-3), p. 1191-1209
    Details
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 38, No. 5-6 ( 2012-3), p. 1191-1209
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1057-6
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2012
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A Review of Recent Updates of Sea-Level Projections at Global and Regional Scales
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2017
    In:  Surveys in Geophysics Vol. 38, No. 1 ( 2017-1), p. 385-406
    Details
    In: Surveys in Geophysics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 38, No. 1 ( 2017-1), p. 385-406
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0169-3298 , 1573-0956
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s10712-016-9374-2
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2017797-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Comparing tide gauge observations to regional patterns of sea-level change (1961–2003)
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2014
    In:  Earth System Dynamics Vol. 5, No. 1 ( 2014-06-26), p. 243-255
    Details
    In: Earth System Dynamics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 5, No. 1 ( 2014-06-26), p. 243-255
    Abstract: Abstract. Although the global mean sea-level budget for the 20th century can now be closed, the understanding of sea-level change on a regional scale is still limited. In this study we compare observations from tide gauges to regional patterns from various contributions to sea-level change to see how much of the regional measurements can be explained. Processes that are included are land ice mass changes and terrestrial storage changes with associated gravitational, rotational and deformational effects, steric/dynamic changes, atmospheric pressure loading and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The study focuses on the mean linear trend of regional sea-level rise between 1961 and 2003. It is found that on a regional level the explained variance of the observed trend is 0.87 with a regression coefficient of 1.07. The observations and models overlap within the 1σ uncertainty range in all regions. The main processes explaining the variability in the observations appear to be the steric/dynamic component and the GIA. Local observations prove to be more difficult to explain because they show larger spatial variations, and therefore require more information on small-scale processes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2190-4987
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-5-243-2014
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-5-243-2014-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2578793-7
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea‐Level Change Over the 21st Century and Beyond
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2020
    In:  Earth's Future Vol. 8, No. 9 ( 2020-09)
    Details
    In: Earth's Future, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 8, No. 9 ( 2020-09)
    Abstract: We have developed a new set of global and local sea‐level projections for the 21st century and extended to 2300 that are rooted in CMIP5 climate model simulations, including more comprehensive treatment of uncertainty than previously reported in IPCC AR5 Analysis of local sea‐level projections and tide gauge data suggests that local variability will dominate the total variance in sea‐level change for the coming decades at all locations considered The extended sea‐level projections highlight the substantial multicentury sea‐level rise commitment under all RCP scenarios and the dependence of modeling uncertainty on geographic location, time horizon, and climate scenario
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2328-4277 , 2328-4277
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001413
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2746403-9
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2017
    In:  Nature Communications Vol. 8, No. 1 ( 2017-07-07)
    Details
    In: Nature Communications, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 8, No. 1 ( 2017-07-07)
    Abstract: One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2041-1723
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms16075
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2553671-0
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  • 9
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    Online Resource
    An ensemble approach to quantify global mean sea-level rise over the 20th century from tide gauge reconstructions
    IOP Publishing ; 2021
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 16, No. 4 ( 2021-04-01), p. 044043-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 16, No. 4 ( 2021-04-01), p. 044043-
    Abstract: We present an ensemble approach to quantify historical global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise based on tide gauge reconstructions. This approach combines the maximum internal uncertainty across the ensemble with an estimate of structural uncertainty to provide a conservative estimate of the total uncertainty. Comparisons of GMSL rise over the 20th century based on deltas and linear trends (and their respective uncertainties) are consistent with past Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments and show good agreement with satellite altimeter timeseries. Sensitivity tests show that our estimates of GMSL rise are robust to the choice of reference period and central estimate timeseries. The methods proposed in this study are generic and could be easily applied to other global or regional climate change indicators.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Probabilistic forecasts of winter thunderstorms around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2009
    In:  Advances in Science and Research Vol. 3, No. 1 ( 2009-04-15), p. 39-43
    Details
    In: Advances in Science and Research, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 3, No. 1 ( 2009-04-15), p. 39-43
    Abstract: Abstract. The development and verification of a probabilistic forecast system for winter thunderstorms around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is described. We have used Model Output Statistics (MOS) to develop the probabilistic forecast equations. The MOS system consists of 32 logistic regression equations, i.e. for two forecast periods (0–6 h and 6–12 h), four 90×80 km2 regions around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, and four 6-h time periods. For the predictand quality-controlled Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférométrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR) total lightning data were used. The potential predictors were calculated from postprocessed output of two numerical weather prediction (NWP) models – i.e. the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model – and from an ensemble of advected lightning and radar data (0–6 h projections only). The predictors that are selected most often are the HIRLAM Boyden index, the square root of the ECMWF 3-h and 6-h convective precipitation sum, the HIRLAM convective available potential energy (CAPE) and two radar advection predictors. An objective verification was done, from which it can be concluded that the MOS system is skilful. The forecast system runs at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) on an experimental basis, with the primary objective to warn aircraft pilots for potential aircraft induced lightning (AIL) risk during winter.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1992-0636
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/asr-3-39-2009
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2009
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2409176-5
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