In:
The Journal of Infectious Diseases, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 222, No. 12 ( 2020-11-13), p. 2021-2029
Abstract:
Our understanding of the different effects of targeted versus nontargeted violence on Ebola virus (EBOV) transmission in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is limited. Methods We used time-series data of case counts to compare individuals in Ebola-affected health zones in DRC, April 2018–August 2019. Exposure was number of violent events per health zone, categorized into Ebola-targeted or Ebola-untargeted, and into civilian-induced, (para)military/political, or protests. Outcome was estimated daily reproduction number (Rt) by health zone. We fit linear time-series regression to model the relationship. Results Average Rt was 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02–1.11). A mean of 2.92 violent events resulted in cumulative absolute increase in Rt of 0.10 (95% CI, .05–.15). More violent events increased EBOV transmission (P = .03). Considering violent events in the 95th percentile over a 21-day interval and its relative impact on Rt, Ebola-targeted events corresponded to Rt of 1.52 (95% CI, 1.30–1.74), while civilian-induced events corresponded to Rt of 1.43 (95% CI, 1.21–1.35). Untargeted events corresponded to Rt of 1.18 (95% CI, 1.02–1.35); among these, militia/political or ville morte events increased transmission. Conclusions Ebola-targeted violence, primarily driven by civilian-induced events, had the largest impact on EBOV transmission.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0022-1899
,
1537-6613
DOI:
10.1093/infdis/jiaa163
Language:
English
Publisher:
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Publication Date:
2020
detail.hit.zdb_id:
1473843-0
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