In:
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 16, No. 6 ( 2022-6-13), p. e0010506-
Abstract:
Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease prevalent throughout the world, but with particularly high burden in Oceania (including the Pacific Island Countries and Territories). Leptospirosis is endemic in Fiji, with outbreaks often occurring following heavy rainfall and flooding. As a result of non-specific clinical manifestation and diagnostic challenges, cases are often misdiagnosed or under-ascertained. Furthermore, little is known about the duration of persistence of antibodies to leptospirosis, which has important clinical and epidemiological implications. Methodology and principal findings Using the results from a serosurvey conducted in Fiji in 2013, we fitted serocatalytic models to estimate the duration of antibody positivity and the force of infection (FOI, the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire infection or seroconversion), whilst accounting for seroreversion. Additionally, we estimated the most likely timing of infection. Using the reverse catalytic model, we estimated the duration of antibody persistence to be 8.33 years (4.76–12.50; assuming constant FOI) and 7.25 years (3.36–11.36; assuming time-varying FOI), which is longer than previous estimates. Using population age-structured seroprevalence data alone, we were not able to distinguish between these two models. However, by bringing in additional longitudinal data on antibody kinetics we were able to estimate the most likely time of infection, lending support to the time-varying FOI model. We found that most individuals who were antibody-positive in the 2013 serosurvey were likely to have been infected within the previous two years, and this finding is consistent with surveillance data showing high numbers of cases reported in 2012 and 2013. Conclusions This is the first study to use serocatalytic models to estimate the FOI and seroreversion rate for Leptospira infection. As well as providing an estimate for the duration of antibody positivity, we also present a novel method to estimate the most likely time of infection from seroprevalence data. These approaches can allow for richer, longitudinal information to be inferred from cross-sectional studies, and could be applied to other endemic diseases where antibody waning occurs.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1935-2735
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.g001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.g002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.g003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.g004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.t001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.t002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.t003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.s001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.s002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.s003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.s004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.s005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.s006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.s007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.s008
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.s009
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.s010
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.s011
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.s012
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.s013
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.s014
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.r001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.r002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.r003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506.r004
Language:
English
Publisher:
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publication Date:
2022
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2429704-5
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