GLORIA

GEOMAR Library Ocean Research Information Access

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
  • 1
    In: Journal of Animal Ecology, Wiley, Vol. 91, No. 12 ( 2022-12), p. 2465-2479
    Abstract: Cumulative human pressures and climate change can induce nonlinear discontinuous dynamics in ecosystems, known as regime shifts. Regime shifts typically imply hysteresis, a lacking or delayed system response when pressures are reverted, which can frustrate restoration efforts. Here, we investigate whether the northern Adriatic Sea fish and macroinvertebrate community, as depicted by commercial fishery landings, has undergone regime shifts over the last 40 years, and the reversibility of such changes. We use a stochastic cusp model to show that, under the interactive effect of fishing pressure and water warming, the community reorganized through discontinuous changes. We found that part of the community has now reached a new stable state, implying that a recovery towards previous baselines might be impossible. Interestingly, total landings remained constant across decades, masking the low resilience of the community. Our study reveals the importance of carefully assessing regime shifts and resilience in marine ecosystems under cumulative pressures and advocates for their inclusion into management.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0021-8790 , 1365-2656
    URL: Issue
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2006616-8
    SSG: 12
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Communications Earth & Environment Vol. 2, No. 1 ( 2021-07-06)
    In: Communications Earth & Environment, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 2, No. 1 ( 2021-07-06)
    Abstract: Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, decadal regional ocean climate and fish stock predictions have until now had low forecast skill. Here, we provide skilful forecasts of the biomass of cod stocks in the North and Barents Seas a decade in advance. We develop a unified dynamical-statistical prediction system wherein statistical models link future stock biomass to dynamical predictions of sea surface temperature, while also considering different fishing mortalities. Our retrospective forecasts provide estimates of past performance of our models and they suggest differences in the source of prediction skill between the two cod stocks. We forecast the continuation of unfavorable oceanic conditions for the North Sea cod in the coming decade, which would inhibit its recovery at present fishing levels, and a decrease in Northeast Arctic cod stock compared to the recent high levels.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2662-4435
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3037243-4
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2023
    In:  Scientific Reports Vol. 13, No. 1 ( 2023-01-06)
    In: Scientific Reports, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 13, No. 1 ( 2023-01-06)
    Abstract: Recovery of depleted fish stocks is an important goal for fisheries management and crucial to sustain important ecosystem functions as well as global food security. Successful recovery requires adjusting fishing mortality to stock productivity but can be prevented or inhibited by additional anthropogenic impacts such as climate change. Despite management measures to recover fish stocks being in place in legislations such as the European Union´s Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), recovery can be hindered by the occurrence of regime shift dynamics. Such non-linear discontinuous dynamics imply tipping points and bear the characteristics of abrupt change, hysteresis and non-stationary functional relationships. We here used the recent reform of the CFP as a natural experiment to investigate the existence of regime shift dynamics and its potential effects on the recovery potential on six strongly fished or even depleted commercial fish stocks in the North Sea. Using a set of statistical approaches we show that regime shift dynamics exist in all six fish stocks as a response to changes in fishing pressure and temperature. Our results furthermore demonstrate the context-dependence of such dynamics and hence the ability of management measures to rebuild depleted fish stocks, leading to either failed recovery or positive tipping.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2045-2322
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2615211-3
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Scientific Reports Vol. 11, No. 1 ( 2021-07-12)
    In: Scientific Reports, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 11, No. 1 ( 2021-07-12)
    Abstract: Understanding tipping point dynamics in harvested ecosystems is of crucial importance for sustainable resource management because ignoring their existence imperils social-ecological systems that depend on them. Fisheries collapses provide the best known examples for realizing tipping points with catastrophic ecological, economic and social consequences. However, present-day fisheries management systems still largely ignore the potential of their resources to exhibit such abrupt changes towards irreversible low productive states. Using a combination of statistical changepoint analysis and stochastic cusp modelling, here we show that Western Baltic cod is beyond such a tipping point caused by unsustainable exploitation levels that failed to account for changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, climate change stabilizes a novel and likely irreversible low productivity state of this fish stock that is not adapted to a fast warming environment. We hence argue that ignorance of non-linear resource dynamics has caused the demise of an economically and culturally important social-ecological system which calls for better adaptation of fisheries systems to climate change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2045-2322
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2615211-3
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 5
    In: Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 9 ( 2022-9-21)
    Abstract: Human impacts can induce ecosystems to cross tipping points and hence unexpected and sudden changes in ecosystem services that are difficult or impossible to reverse. The world´s oceans suffer from cumulative anthropogenic pressures like overexploitation and climate change and are especially vulnerable to such regime shifts. Yet an outstanding question is whether regime changes in marine ecosystems are irreversible. Here we first review the evidence for regime shifts in the North Sea ecosystem, one of the heaviest impacted and best studied marine ecosystems in the world. We then used catastrophe theory to show that fishing and warming have caused a previously undetected and potentially irreversible regime shift. Our study emphasizes the combined effects of local and global human impacts in driving significant ecosystem shifts and suggests that adaptation is likely the central avenue forward for maintaining services in the face of global climate change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2296-7745
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2757748-X
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 6
    In: Environmental Evidence, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 10, No. 1 ( 2021-12)
    Abstract: Anthropogenic pressures on marine ecosystems have increased over the last 75 years and are expected to intensify in the future with potentially dramatic cascading consequences for human societies. It is therefore crucial to rebuild marine life-support systems and aim for future healthy ecosystems. Nowadays, there is a reasonable understanding of the impacts of human pressure on marine ecosystems; but no studies have drawn an integrative retrospective analysis of the marine research on the topic. A systematic consolidation of the literature is therefore needed to clearly describe the scientific knowledge clusters and gaps as well as to promote a new era of integrative marine science and management. We focus on the five direct anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity loss defined by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES): (1) climate change; (2) direct exploitation; (3) pollution; (4) biological invasions; and (5) sea-use change. Our systematic map’s regional focus lies on the North Sea, which is among the most impacted marine ecosystems around the globe. The goal of the present study is to produce the first comprehensive overview of how marine research on anthropogenic drivers in the North Sea has grown and changed over the past 75 years. Ultimately, this systematic map will highlight the most urgent challenges facing the North Sea research domain. Methods The search will be restricted to peer-reviewed articles, reviews, meta-analyses, book chapters, book reviews, proceeding papers and grey literature using the most relevant search engines for literature published between 1945 and 2020. All authors will participate in the adjustment of the search in order to consider all relevant studies analyzing the effect of the direct anthropogenic drivers on the North Sea marine ecosystem. The references will be screened for relevance according to a predefined set of eligibility/ineligibility criteria by a pool of six trained reviewers. At stage one, each abstract and title will be independently screened by two reviewers. At stage two, potentially relevant references will be screened in full text by two independent reviewers. Subsequently, we will extract a suite of descriptive meta-data and basic information of the relevant references using the SysRev platform. The systematic map database composed will provide the foundation for an interactive geographical evidence map. Moreover, we will summarize our findings with cross-validation plots, heat maps, descriptive statistics, and a publicly available narrative synthesis. The aim of our visualization tools is to ensure that our findings are easily understandable by a broad audience.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2047-2382
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2662506-4
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 7
    In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 75, No. 7 ( 2018-12-01), p. 2463-2475
    Abstract: Fisheries and marine ecosystem-based management requires a holistic understanding of the dynamics of fish communities and their responses to changes in environmental conditions. Environmental conditions can simultaneously shape the spatial distribution and the temporal dynamics of a population, which together can trigger changes in the functional structure of communities. Here, we developed a comprehensive framework based on complementary multivariate statistical methodologies to simultaneously investigate the effects of environmental conditions on the spatial, temporal and functional dynamics of species assemblages. The framework is tested using survey data collected during more than 4000 fisheries hauls over the Baltic Sea between 2001 and 2016. The approach revealed the Baltic fish community to be structured into three sub-assemblages along a strong and temporally stable salinity gradient decreasing from West to the East. Additionally, we highlight a mismatch between species and functional richness associated with a lower functional redundancy in the Baltic Proper compared with other sub-areas, suggesting an ecosystem more susceptible to external pressures. Based on a large dataset of community data analysed in an innovative and comprehensive way, we could disentangle the effects of environmental changes on the structure of biotic communities—key information for the management and conservation of ecosystems.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1054-3139 , 1095-9289
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2463178-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1468003-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 29056-7
    SSG: 12
    SSG: 21,3
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2020
    In:  ICES Journal of Marine Science Vol. 77, No. 4 ( 2020-07-01), p. 1492-1502
    In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 77, No. 4 ( 2020-07-01), p. 1492-1502
    Abstract: The stock–recruitment relationship is the basis of any stock prediction and thus fundamental for fishery management. Traditional parametric stock–recruitment models often poorly fit empirical data, nevertheless they are still the rule in fish stock assessment procedures. We here apply a multi-model approach to predict recruitment of 20 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks as a function of adult biomass and environmental variables. We compare the traditional Ricker model with two non-parametric approaches: (i) the stochastic cusp model from catastrophe theory and (ii) multivariate simplex projections, based on attractor state-space reconstruction. We show that the performance of each model is contingent on the historical dynamics of individual stocks, and that stocks which experienced abrupt and state-dependent dynamics are best modelled using non-parametric approaches. These dynamics are pervasive in Western stocks highlighting a geographical distinction between cod stocks, which have implications for their recovery potential. Furthermore, the addition of environmental variables always improved the models’ predictive power indicating that they should be considered in stock assessment and management routines. Using our multi-model approach, we demonstrate that we should be more flexible when modelling recruitment and tailor our approaches to the dynamical properties of each individual stock.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1095-9289
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2463178-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1468003-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 29056-7
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 9
    In: Marine Policy, Elsevier BV, Vol. 157 ( 2023-11), p. 105818-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0308-597X
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1500650-5
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wiley ; 2016
    In:  Global Change Biology Vol. 22, No. 8 ( 2016-08), p. 2729-2743
    In: Global Change Biology, Wiley, Vol. 22, No. 8 ( 2016-08), p. 2729-2743
    Abstract: How have North Sea skate and shark assemblages changed since the early 20th century when bottom trawling became widespread, whilst their environment became increasingly impacted by fishing, climate change, habitat degradation and other anthropogenic pressures? This article examines long‐term changes in the distribution and occurrence of the elasmobranch assemblage of the southern North Sea, based on extensive historical time series (1902–2013) of fishery‐independent survey data. In general, larger species (thornback ray, tope, spurdog) exhibited long‐term declines, and the largest (common skate complex) became locally extirpated (as did angelshark). Smaller species increased (spotted and starry ray, lesser‐spotted dogfish) as did smooth‐hound, likely benefiting from greater resilience to fishing and/or climate change. This indicates a fundamental shift from historical dominance of larger, commercially valuable species to current prevalence of smaller, more productive species often of low commercial value. In recent years, however, some trends have reversed, with the (cold‐water associated) starry ray now declining and thornback ray increasing. This shift may be attributed to (i) fishing, including mechanised beam trawling introduced in the 1960s–1970s, and historical target fisheries for elasmobranchs; (ii) climate change, currently favouring warm‐water above cold‐water species; and (iii) habitat loss, including potential degradation of coastal and outer estuarine nursery habitats. The same anthropogenic pressures, here documented to have impacted North Sea elasmobranchs over the past century, are likewise impacting shelf seas worldwide and may increase in the future; therefore, parallel changes in elasmobranch communities in other regions are to be expected.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1354-1013 , 1365-2486
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020313-5
    SSG: 12
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...