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  • 1
    In: Nature, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 613, No. 7943 ( 2023-01-12), p. 292-297
    Abstract: The recovery of long-term climate proxy records with seasonal resolution is rare because of natural smoothing processes, discontinuities and limitations in measurement resolution. Yet insolation forcing, a primary driver of multimillennial-scale climate change, acts through seasonal variations with direct impacts on seasonal climate 1 . Whether the sensitivity of seasonal climate to insolation matches theoretical predictions has not been assessed over long timescales. Here, we analyse a continuous record of water-isotope ratios from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core to reveal summer and winter temperature changes through the last 11,000 years. Summer temperatures in West Antarctica increased through the early-to-mid-Holocene, reached a peak 4,100 years ago and then decreased to the present. Climate model simulations show that these variations primarily reflect changes in maximum summer insolation, confirming the general connection between seasonal insolation and warming and demonstrating the importance of insolation intensity rather than seasonally integrated insolation or season duration 2,3 . Winter temperatures varied less overall, consistent with predictions from insolation forcing, but also fluctuated in the early Holocene, probably owing to changes in meridional heat transport. The magnitudes of summer and winter temperature changes constrain the lowering of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet surface since the early Holocene to less than 162 m and probably less than 58 m, consistent with geological constraints elsewhere in West Antarctica 4–7 .
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0028-0836 , 1476-4687
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 120714-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1413423-8
    SSG: 11
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  • 2
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 47, No. 6 ( 2020-03-28)
    Abstract: Planktic foraminiferal δ 18 O data indicate that the North Pacific subpolar gyre expanded southward by ~3° during the Last Glacial Maximum Climate models show that changes in gyre extent/strength are driven by a nonlinear response of the westerlies to ice sheet albedo/topography and CO 2 Proxy data and model simulations indicate that the gyre boundary and westerlies began to migrate northward at ~16.5 ka, during Heinrich Stadial 1
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 3
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 10, No. 10 ( 2017-10-12), p. 3715-3743
    Abstract: Abstract. Understanding natural and anthropogenic climate change processes involves using computational models that represent the main components of the Earth system: the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface. These models have become increasingly computationally expensive as resolution is increased and more complex process representations are included. However, to gain robust insight into how climate may respond to a given forcing, and to meaningfully quantify the associated uncertainty, it is often required to use either or both ensemble approaches and very long integrations. For this reason, more computationally efficient models can be very valuable tools. Here we provide a comprehensive overview of the suite of climate models based around the HadCM3 coupled general circulation model. This model was developed at the UK Met Office and has been heavily used during the last 15 years for a range of future (and past) climate change studies, but has now been largely superseded for many scientific studies by more recently developed models. However, it continues to be extensively used by various institutions, including the BRIDGE (Bristol Research Initiative for the Dynamic Global Environment) research group at the University of Bristol, who have made modest adaptations to the base HadCM3 model over time. These adaptations mean that the original documentation is not entirely representative, and several other relatively undocumented configurations are in use. We therefore describe the key features of a number of configurations of the HadCM3 climate model family, which together make up HadCM3@Bristol version 1.0. In order to differentiate variants that have undergone development at BRIDGE, we have introduced the letter B into the model nomenclature. We include descriptions of the atmosphere-only model (HadAM3B), the coupled model with a low-resolution ocean (HadCM3BL), the high-resolution atmosphere-only model (HadAM3BH), and the regional model (HadRM3B). These also include three versions of the land surface scheme. By comparing with observational datasets, we show that these models produce a good representation of many aspects of the climate system, including the land and sea surface temperatures, precipitation, ocean circulation, and vegetation. This evaluation, combined with the relatively fast computational speed (up to 1000 times faster than some CMIP6 models), motivates continued development and scientific use of the HadCM3B family of coupled climate models, predominantly for quantifying uncertainty and for long multi-millennial-scale simulations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  Nature Vol. 611, No. 7935 ( 2022-11-10), p. 295-300
    In: Nature, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 611, No. 7935 ( 2022-11-10), p. 295-300
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0028-0836 , 1476-4687
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1413423-8
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2011
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 36, No. 5-6 ( 2011-3), p. 907-923
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 36, No. 5-6 ( 2011-3), p. 907-923
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2011
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 6
    In: Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Vol. 372, No. 6546 ( 2021-06-04), p. 1097-1101
    Abstract: Water-stable isotopes in polar ice cores are a widely used temperature proxy in paleoclimate reconstruction, yet calibration remains challenging in East Antarctica. Here, we reconstruct the magnitude and spatial pattern of Last Glacial Maximum surface cooling in Antarctica using borehole thermometry and firn properties in seven ice cores. West Antarctic sites cooled ~10°C relative to the preindustrial period. East Antarctic sites show a range from ~4° to ~7°C cooling, which is consistent with the results of global climate models when the effects of topographic changes indicated with ice core air-content data are included, but less than those indicated with the use of water-stable isotopes calibrated against modern spatial gradients. An altered Antarctic temperature inversion during the glacial reconciles our estimates with water-isotope observations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0036-8075 , 1095-9203
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    Language: English
    Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 128410-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2066996-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2060783-0
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2019
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 32, No. 13 ( 2019-07-01), p. 3917-3940
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 32, No. 13 ( 2019-07-01), p. 3917-3940
    Abstract: Stationary waves describe the persistent meanders in the west–east flow of the extratropical atmosphere. Here, changes in stationary waves caused by ice sheets over North America are examined and the underlying mechanisms are discussed. Three experiment sets are presented showing the stationary wave response to the albedo or topography of ice sheets, as well as the albedo and topography in combination, as the forcings evolve from 21 to 6 ka. It is found that although the wintertime stationary waves have the largest amplitude, changes due to an ice sheet are equally large in summer and winter. In summer, ice sheet albedo is the dominant cause of changes: topography alone gives an opposite response to realistic ice sheets including albedo and topography. In winter, over the Atlantic, stationary wave changes are due to the ice sheet topography; over the Pacific, they are due to the persistence of summertime changes, mediated by changes in the ocean circulation. It is found that the response of stationary waves over the last deglaciation echoes the above conclusions, with no evidence of abrupt shifts in atmospheric circulation. The response linearly weakens as the albedo and height decrease from 21 to 10 ka. As potential applications, the seasonal cycle over Greenland is shown to be sensitive primarily to changes in summer climate caused by the stationary waves; the annual mean circulation over the North Pacific is found to result from summertime, albedo-forced, stationary wave effects persisting throughout the year because of ocean dynamics.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
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    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2014
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 27, No. 3 ( 2014-02-01), p. 1223-1242
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 27, No. 3 ( 2014-02-01), p. 1223-1242
    Abstract: The offline linearized ocean–atmosphere model (LOAM), which was developed to quantify the impact of the climatological mean state on the variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is used to illuminate why ENSO changed between the modern-day and early/mid-Holocene simulations in two climate modeling studies using the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM) and the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3). LOAM reproduces the spatiotemporal variability simulated by the climate models and shows both the reduction in the variance of ENSO and the changes in the spatial structure of the variance during the early/mid-Holocene. The mean state changes that are important in each model are different and, in both cases, are also different from those hypothesized to be important in the original papers describing these simulations. In the CSM simulations, the ENSO mode is stabilized by the mean cooling of the SST. This reduces atmospheric heating anomalies that in turn give smaller wind stress anomalies, thus weakening the Bjerknes feedback. Within the ocean, a change in the thermocline structure alters the spatial pattern of the variance, shifting the peak variance farther east, but does not reduce the overall amount of ENSO variance. In HadCM3, the ENSO mode is stabilized by a combination of a weaker thermocline and weakened horizontal surface currents. Both of these reduce the Bjerknes feedback by reducing the ocean’s SST response to wind stress forcing. This study demonstrates the importance of considering the combined effect of a mean state change on the coupled ocean–atmosphere system: conflicting and erroneous results are obtained for both models if only one model component is considered in isolation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
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    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2020
    In:  Scientific Reports Vol. 10, No. 1 ( 2020-10-05)
    In: Scientific Reports, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 10, No. 1 ( 2020-10-05)
    Abstract: The interpretation of palaeoclimate archives based on oxygen isotopes depends critically on a detailed understanding of processes controlling the isotopic composition of precipitation. In the summer monsoonal realm, like Southeast Asia, seasonally and interannually depleted oxygen isotope ratios in precipitation have been linked to the summer monsoon strength. However, in some regions, such as central Vietnam, the majority of precipitation falls outside the summer monsoon period. We investigate processes controlling stable isotopes in precipitation from central Vietnam by combining moisture uptake calculations with monthly stable isotope data observed over five years. We find that the isotopic seasonal cycle in this region is driven by a shift in moisture source from the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea. This shift is reflected in oxygen isotope ratios with low values (− 8 to − 10‰) during summer and high values during spring/winter (0 to − 3‰), while 70% of the annual rainfall occurs during autumn. Interannual changes in precipitation isotopes in central Vietnam are governed by the timing of the seasonal onset and withdrawal of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which controls the amount of vapour contributed from each source.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2045-2322
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2615211-3
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2014
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 111, No. 47 ( 2014-11-25), p. 16688-16693
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 47 ( 2014-11-25), p. 16688-16693
    Abstract: Heinrich Events, the abrupt changes in the Laurentide Ice Sheet that cause the appearance of the well-observed Heinrich Layers, are thought to have a strong effect on the global climate. The focus of most studies that have looked at the climate’s response to these events has been the freshwater flux that results from melting icebergs. However, there is the possibility that the varying height of the ice sheet could force a change in the climate. In this study, we present results from a newly developed coupled climate/ice sheet model to show what effect this topographic change has both on its own and in concert with the flux of freshwater from melting icebergs. We show that the topographic forcing can explain a number of the climate changes that are observed during Heinrich Events, such as the warming and wettening in Florida and the warm sea surface temperatures in the central North Atlantic, which freshwater forcing alone cannot. We also find regions, for example the tropical Atlantic, where the response is a mixture of the two: Here observations may help disentangle the relative importance of each mechanism. These results suggest that the simple paradigm of a Heinrich Event causing climate change via freshwater inputs into the North Atlantic needs to be revised.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
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