In:
Epidemiology and Infection, Cambridge University Press (CUP), Vol. 149 ( 2021)
Abstract:
The article aims to estimate and forecast the transmissibility of shigellosis and explore the association of meteorological factors with shigellosis. The mathematical model named Susceptible–Exposed–Symptomatic/Asymptomatic–Recovered–Water/Food (SEIARW) was used to explore the feature of shigellosis transmission based on the data of Wuhan City, China, from 2005 to 2017. The study applied effective reproduction number ( R eff ) to estimate the transmissibility. Daily meteorological data from 2008 to 2017 were used to determine Spearman's correlation with reported new cases and R eff . The SEIARW model fit the data well ( χ 2 = 0.00046, p 〉 0.999). The simulation results showed that the reservoir-to-person transmission of the shigellosis route has been interrupted. The R eff would be reduced to a transmission threshold of 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82–1.19) in 2035. Reducing the infectious period to 11.25 days would also decrease the value of R eff to 0.99. There was a significant correlation between new cases of shigellosis and atmospheric pressure, temperature, wind speed and sun hours per day. The correlation coefficients, although statistically significant, were very low ( 〈 0.3). In Wuhan, China, the main transmission pattern of shigellosis is person-to-person. Meteorological factors, especially daily atmospheric pressure and temperature, may influence the epidemic of shigellosis.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0950-2688
,
1469-4409
DOI:
10.1017/S0950268821002363
Language:
English
Publisher:
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Publication Date:
2021
detail.hit.zdb_id:
1470211-3
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