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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Imbalanced land surface water budgets in a numerical weather prediction system
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2015
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 42, No. 11 ( 2015-06-16), p. 4411-4417
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 42, No. 11 ( 2015-06-16), p. 4411-4417
    Abstract: Comparison of output from seven ECMWF model systems to hydrological benchmarks Forecasts differ substantially from observed key hydrological variables Imbalanced surface water budgets are found across scales
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/grl.v42.11
    DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064230
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand‐ensemble weather predictions
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2008
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 35, No. 10 ( 2008-05)
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 35, No. 10 ( 2008-05)
    Abstract: Early and effective flood warning is essential to initiate timely measures to reduce loss of life and economic damage. The availability of several global ensemble weather prediction systems through the “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble” (TIGGE) archive provides an opportunity to explore new dimensions in early flood forecasting and warning. TIGGE data has been used as meteorological input to the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) for a case study of a flood event in Romania in October 2007. Results illustrate that awareness for this case of flooding could have been raised as early as 8 days before the event and how the subsequent forecasts provide increasing insight into the range of possible flood conditions. This first assessment of one flood event illustrates the potential value of the TIGGE archive and the grand‐ensembles approach to raise preparedness and thus to reduce the socio‐economic impact of floods.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2008GL033837
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2008
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The role of rating curve uncertainty in real‐time flood forecasting
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2017
    In:  Water Resources Research Vol. 53, No. 5 ( 2017-05), p. 4197-4213
    Details
    In: Water Resources Research, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 53, No. 5 ( 2017-05), p. 4197-4213
    Abstract: The use of rating curve uncertainty to characterize streamflow measurement error improves the quality of flood forecasts A standard flow measurement error can still represent a reasonable trade‐off between complexity and realism when the RC is well‐defined Hydraulic information can effectively constrain the rating curve uncertainty, leading to an enhanced application to data assimilation
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0043-1397 , 1944-7973
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/wrcr.v53.5
    DOI: 10.1002/2016WR020225
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029553-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 5564-5
    SSG: 13
    SSG: 14
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2020
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 47, No. 11 ( 2020-06-16)
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 47, No. 11 ( 2020-06-16)
    Abstract: A new divergence index is introduced to measure inconsistency (jumpiness) in a sequence of ensemble forecasts The ECMWF ensemble has occasional large inconsistency between successive runs, with the largest jumps tending to occur at 7–9 days lead To understand the causes of jumpiness it is important to consider the time evolution of each ensemble (e.g., using phase‐space trajectories)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2020GL087934
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Heat stress in the Caribbean: Climatology, drivers, and trends of human biometeorology indices
    Wiley ; 2023
    In:  International Journal of Climatology Vol. 43, No. 1 ( 2023-01), p. 405-425
    Details
    In: International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, Vol. 43, No. 1 ( 2023-01), p. 405-425
    Abstract: Forty years (1980–2019) of reanalysis data were used to investigate climatology and trends of heat stress in the Caribbean region. Represented via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a multivariate thermophysiological‐relevant parameter, the highest heat stress is found to be most frequent and geographically widespread during the rainy season (August, September, and October). UTCI trends indicate an increase of more than 0.2°C·decade −1 , with southern Florida and the Lesser Antilles witnessing the greatest upward rates (0.45°C·decade −1 ). Correlations with climate variables known to induce heat stress reveal that the increase in heat stress is driven by increases in air temperature and radiation, and decreases in wind speed. Conditions of heat danger, as depicted by the heat index (HI), have intensified since 1980 (+1.2°C) and are found to occur simultaneously to conditions of heat stress suggesting a synergy between heat illnesses and physiological responses to heat. This work also includes the analysis of the record‐breaking 2020 heat season during which the UTCI and HI achieved above average values, indicating that local populations most likely experienced heat stress and danger higher than the ones they are used to. These findings confirm the gradual intensification of heat stress in the Caribbean and aim to provide a guidance for heat‐related policies in the region.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0899-8418 , 1097-0088
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.v43.1
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.7774
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1491204-1
    SSG: 14
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Interconnection between the Indian and the East Asian summer monsoon: Spatial synchronization patterns of extreme rainfall events
    Wiley ; 2023
    In:  International Journal of Climatology Vol. 43, No. 2 ( 2023-02), p. 1034-1049
    Details
    In: International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, Vol. 43, No. 2 ( 2023-02), p. 1034-1049
    Abstract: A deeper understanding of the intricate relationship between the two components of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM)—the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM)—is crucial to improve the subseasonal forecasting of extreme precipitation events. Using an innovative complex network‐based approach, we identify two dominant synchronization pathways between ISM and EASM—a southern mode between the Arabian Sea and southeastern China occurring in June, and a northern mode between the core ISM zone and northern China which peaks in July—and their associated large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Furthermore, we discover that certain phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation and the lower frequency mode of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) seem to favour the overall synchronization of extreme rainfall events between ISM and EASM while the higher‐frequency mode of the BSISO is likely to support the shifting between the modes of ISM–EASM connection.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0899-8418 , 1097-0088
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.v43.2
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.7861
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1491204-1
    SSG: 14
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    European heatwaves: Link to large‐scale circulation patterns and intraseasonal drivers
    Wiley ; 2023
    In:  International Journal of Climatology Vol. 43, No. 7 ( 2023-06-15), p. 3189-3209
    Details
    In: International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, Vol. 43, No. 7 ( 2023-06-15), p. 3189-3209
    Abstract: This study examines the European heatwaves' predictability at subseasonal timescales. Land surface feedbacks and tropical convection, due to their variability at intraseasonal timescales, are taken into consideration and their potential role in extending the predictability beyond the medium range (10 days) is explored. A classification of European heatwaves into five heatwave types is used to discriminate the effects of surface feedbacks and of tropical variability among the different heatwave types. The classification is computed in terms of circulation patterns. By inferring the near‐surface temperature through atmospheric circulation, we aim to identify the predictable component of the heatwave events. All five heatwave circulation patterns are characterized by persistent anticyclonic anomalies located over the region with maximum temperatures. We show that soil moisture deficit is not a required precondition for the occurrence of heatwaves over most of Europe. However, heatwave events over southern Europe exhibit some sensitivity to dry conditions. We use a simplified index to describe the dominant mode of tropical convection at intraseasonal timescales. The index, based on precipitation anomalies, represents the evolution of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO). We find that episodes with strong BSISO amplitudes characterized by enhanced convection over India, Bay of Bengal and China sea favour the occurrence of heatwave events over Russia. The results highlight the role of tropical intraseasonal variability in enhancing the predictability of some extreme temperature events over Europe.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0899-8418 , 1097-0088
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.v43.7
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.8024
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1491204-1
    SSG: 14
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A data assimilation approach to discharge estimation from space
    Wiley ; 2009
    In:  Hydrological Processes Vol. 23, No. 25 ( 2009-12-15), p. 3641-3649
    Details
    In: Hydrological Processes, Wiley, Vol. 23, No. 25 ( 2009-12-15), p. 3641-3649
    Abstract: River discharge is currently monitored by a diminishing network of gauges, which provide a spatially incomplete picture of global discharges. This study assimilated water level information derived from a fused satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image and digital terrain model (DTM) with simulations from a coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic model to estimate discharge in an un‐gauged basin scenario. Assimilating water level measurements led to a 79% reduction in ensemble discharge uncertainty over the coupled hydrological hydrodynamic model alone. Measurement bias was evident, but the method still provided a means of improving estimates of discharge for high flows. The study demonstrates the potential of currently available synthetic aperture radar imagery to reduce discharge uncertainty in un‐gauged basins when combined with model simulations in a data assimilation framework, where sufficient topographic data are available. The work is timely because in the near future the launch of satellite radar missions will lead to a significant increase in the volume of data available for space‐borne discharge estimation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0885-6087 , 1099-1085
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/hyp.v23:25
    DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7518
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2009
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1479953-4
    SSG: 14
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Improving Forecasts of Biomass Burning Emissions with the Fire Weather Index
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Vol. 56, No. 10 ( 2017-10), p. 2789-2799
    Details
    In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 56, No. 10 ( 2017-10), p. 2789-2799
    Abstract: In the absence of a dynamical fire model that could link the emissions to the weather dynamics and the availability of fuel, atmospheric composition models, such as the European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS), often assume persistence, meaning that constituents produced by the biomass burning process during the first day are assumed constant for the whole length of the forecast integration (5 days for CAMS). While this assumption is simple and practical, it can produce unrealistic predictions of aerosol concentration due to an excessive contribution from biomass burning. This paper introduces a time-dependent factor , which modulates the amount of aerosol emitted from fires during the forecast. The factor is related to the daily change in fire danger conditions and is a function of the fire weather index (FWI). The impact of the new scheme was tested in the atmospheric composition model managed by the CAMS. Experiments from 5 months of daily forecasts in 2015 allowed for both the derivation of global statistics and the analysis of two big fire events in Indonesia and Alaska, with extremely different burning characteristics. The results indicate that time-modulated emissions based on the FWI calculations lead to predictions that are in better agreement with observations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1558-8424 , 1558-8432
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0405.1
    RVK:
    UA 4547
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2227779-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2227759-6
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: Indicating Extreme Heat Risk on a Global Grid
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2023
    In:  GeoHealth Vol. 7, No. 2 ( 2023-02)
    Details
    In: GeoHealth, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 7, No. 2 ( 2023-02)
    Abstract: We create an accurate method for calculating Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) using Mean Radiant Temperature termed WBGT Brimicombe It is found that WBGT amsc87 also known as WBGTsimple is not an accurate approximation of WBGT WBGT Brimicombe can assist with robust heat stress standards across sectors including in public and occupational health
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2471-1403 , 2471-1403
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2022GH000701
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2892823-4
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