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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    COVID-19 Surveillance Updates in US Metropolitan Areas: Dynamic Panel Data Modeling
    JMIR Publications Inc. ; 2022
    In:  JMIR Public Health and Surveillance Vol. 8, No. 2 ( 2022-2-24), p. e28737-
    Details
    In: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, JMIR Publications Inc., Vol. 8, No. 2 ( 2022-2-24), p. e28737-
    Abstract: Despite the availability of vaccines, the US incidence of new COVID-19 cases per day nearly doubled from the beginning of July to the end of August 2021, fueled largely by the rapid spread of the Delta variant. While the “Delta wave” appears to have peaked nationally, some states and municipalities continue to see elevated numbers of new cases. Vigilant surveillance including at a metropolitan level can help identify any reignition and validate continued and strong public health policy responses in problem localities. Objective This surveillance report aimed to provide up-to-date information for the 25 largest US metropolitan areas about the rapidity of descent in the number of new cases following the Delta wave peak, as well as any potential reignition of the pandemic associated with declining vaccine effectiveness over time, new variants, or other factors. Methods COVID-19 pandemic dynamics for the 25 largest US metropolitan areas were analyzed through September 19, 2021, using novel metrics of speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, calculated from the observed data on the cumulative number of cases as reported by USAFacts. Statistical analysis was conducted using dynamic panel data models estimated with the Arellano-Bond regression techniques. The results are presented in tabular and graphic forms for visual interpretation. Results On average, speed in the 25 largest US metropolitan areas declined from 34 new cases per day per 100,000 population, during the week ending August 15, 2021, to 29 new cases per day per 100,000 population, during the week ending September 19, 2021. This average masks important differences across metropolitan areas. For example, Miami’s speed decreased from 105 for the week ending August 15, 2021, to 40 for the week ending September 19, 2021. Los Angeles, San Francisco, Riverside, and San Diego had decreasing speed over the sample period and ended with single-digit speeds for the week ending September 19, 2021. However, Boston, Washington DC, Detroit, Minneapolis, Denver, and Charlotte all had their highest speed of the sample during the week ending September 19, 2021. These cities, as well as Houston and Baltimore, had positive acceleration for the week ending September 19, 2021. Conclusions There is great variation in epidemiological curves across US metropolitan areas, including increasing numbers of new cases in 8 of the largest 25 metropolitan areas for the week ending September 19, 2021. These trends, including the possibility of waning vaccine effectiveness and the emergence of resistant variants, strongly indicate the need for continued surveillance and perhaps a return to more restrictive public health guidelines for some areas.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2369-2960
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.2196/28737
    Language: English
    Publisher: JMIR Publications Inc.
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2874192-4
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Dynamic Panel Data Modeling and Surveillance of COVID-19 in Metropolitan Areas in the United States: Longitudinal Trend Analysis
    JMIR Publications Inc. ; 2021
    In:  Journal of Medical Internet Research Vol. 23, No. 2 ( 2021-2-9), p. e26081-
    Details
    In: Journal of Medical Internet Research, JMIR Publications Inc., Vol. 23, No. 2 ( 2021-2-9), p. e26081-
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound and differential impacts on metropolitan areas across the United States and around the world. Within the United States, metropolitan areas that were hit earliest with the pandemic and reacted with scientifically based health policy were able to contain the virus by late spring. For other areas that kept businesses open, the first wave in the United States hit in mid-summer. As the weather turns colder, universities resume classes, and people tire of lockdowns, a second wave is ascending in both metropolitan and rural areas. It becomes more obvious that additional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is needed at the local level to track recent shifts in the pandemic, rates of increase, and persistence. Objective The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk and persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand and manage risk in metropolitan areas. Existing surveillance measures coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until, and after, an effective vaccine is developed. Here, we provide values for novel indicators to measure COVID-19 transmission at the metropolitan area level. Methods Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 260 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the 25 largest US metropolitan areas as a function of the prior number of cases and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. Results Minneapolis and Chicago have the greatest average number of daily new positive results per standardized 100,000 population (which we refer to as speed). Extreme behavior in Minneapolis showed an increase in speed from 17 to 30 (67%) in 1 week. The jerk and acceleration calculated for these areas also showed extreme behavior. The dynamic panel data model shows that Minneapolis, Chicago, and Detroit have the largest persistence effects, meaning that new cases pertaining to a specific week are statistically attributable to new cases from the prior week. Conclusions Three of the metropolitan areas with historically early and harsh winters have the highest persistence effects out of the top 25 most populous metropolitan areas in the United States at the beginning of their cold weather season. With these persistence effects, and with indoor activities becoming more popular as the weather gets colder, stringent COVID-19 regulations will be more important than ever to flatten the second wave of the pandemic. As colder weather grips more of the nation, southern metropolitan areas may also see large spikes in the number of cases.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1438-8871
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.2196/26081
    Language: English
    Publisher: JMIR Publications Inc.
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2028830-X
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Global Stability of Walrasian Tâtonnement
    Elsevier BV ; 1991
    In:  Applied Mathematics Letters Vol. 4, No. 4 ( 1991), p. 33-35
    Details
    In: Applied Mathematics Letters, Elsevier BV, Vol. 4, No. 4 ( 1991), p. 33-35
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0893-9659
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1016/0893-9659(91)90049-2
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 1991
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2004138-X
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Rewetting does not return drained fen peatlands to their old selves
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Nature Communications Vol. 12, No. 1 ( 2021-10-05)
    Details
    In: Nature Communications, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 12, No. 1 ( 2021-10-05)
    Abstract: Peatlands have been drained for land use for a long time and on a large scale, turning them from carbon and nutrient sinks into respective sources, diminishing water regulation capacity, causing surface height loss and destroying biodiversity. Over the last decades, drained peatlands have been rewetted for biodiversity restoration and, as it strongly decreases greenhouse gas emissions, also for climate protection. We quantify restoration success by comparing 320 rewetted fen peatland sites to 243 near-natural peatland sites of similar origin across temperate Europe, all set into perspective by 10k additional European fen vegetation plots. Results imply that rewetting of drained fen peatlands induces the establishment of tall, graminoid wetland plants (helophytisation) and long-lasting differences to pre-drainage biodiversity (vegetation), ecosystem functioning (geochemistry, hydrology), and land cover characteristics (spectral temporal metrics). The Paris Agreement entails the rewetting of 500,000 km 2 of drained peatlands worldwide until 2050-2070. A better understanding of the resulting locally novel ecosystems is required to improve planning and implementation of peatland rewetting and subsequent management.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2041-1723
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25619-y
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2553671-0
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Fully Percutaneous Fetoscopic Repair of Myelomeningocele: 30-Month Follow-up Data
    Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health) ; 2021
    In:  Obstetrical & Gynecological Survey Vol. 76, No. 6 ( 2021-6), p. 319-321
    Details
    In: Obstetrical & Gynecological Survey, Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health), Vol. 76, No. 6 ( 2021-6), p. 319-321
    Abstract: (Abstracted from Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol 2021;57:113–118) The 2011 Management of Myelomeningocele Study (MOMS) reported improved postnatal outcomes for fetuses with myelomeningocele (MMC) who underwent intrauterine repair by open surgery, via hysterectomy, compared with those who underwent traditional postnatal surgery. The study found that the need for shunt decreased by 50% in children who underwent intrauterine repair.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1533-9866 , 0029-7828
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1097/01.ogx.0000754384.39211.28
    Language: English
    Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2043471-6
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Has Omicron Changed the Evolution of the Pandemic?
    JMIR Publications Inc. ; 2022
    In:  JMIR Public Health and Surveillance Vol. 8, No. 1 ( 2022-1-31), p. e35763-
    Details
    In: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, JMIR Publications Inc., Vol. 8, No. 1 ( 2022-1-31), p. e35763-
    Abstract: Variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus carry differential risks to public health. The Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant, first identified in Botswana on November 11, 2021, has spread globally faster than any previous variant of concern. Understanding the transmissibility of Omicron is vital in the development of public health policy. Objective The aim of this study is to compare SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks driven by Omicron to those driven by prior variants of concern in terms of both the speed and magnitude of an outbreak. Methods We analyzed trends in outbreaks by variant of concern with validated surveillance metrics in several southern African countries. The region offers an ideal setting for a natural experiment given that most outbreaks thus far have been driven primarily by a single variant at a time. With a daily longitudinal data set of new infections, total vaccinations, and cumulative infections in countries in sub-Saharan Africa, we estimated how the emergence of Omicron has altered the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. We used the Arellano-Bond method to estimate regression coefficients from a dynamic panel model, in which new infections are a function of infections yesterday and last week. We controlled for vaccinations and prior infections in the population. To test whether Omicron has changed the average trajectory of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, we included an interaction between an indicator variable for the emergence of Omicron and lagged infections. Results The observed Omicron outbreaks in this study reach the outbreak threshold within 5-10 days after first detection, whereas other variants of concern have taken at least 14 days and up to as many as 35 days. The Omicron outbreaks also reach peak rates of new cases that are roughly 1.5-2 times those of prior variants of concern. Dynamic panel regression estimates confirm Omicron has created a statistically significant shift in viral spread. Conclusions The transmissibility of Omicron is markedly higher than prior variants of concern. At the population level, the Omicron outbreaks occurred more quickly and with larger magnitude, despite substantial increases in vaccinations and prior infections, which should have otherwise reduced susceptibility to new infections. Unless public health policies are substantially altered, Omicron outbreaks in other countries are likely to occur with little warning.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2369-2960
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.2196/35763
    Language: English
    Publisher: JMIR Publications Inc.
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2874192-4
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    State of the data on endometriosis
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2007
    In:  Der Gynäkologe Vol. 40, No. 7 ( 2007-7), p. 521-526
    Details
    In: Der Gynäkologe, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 40, No. 7 ( 2007-7), p. 521-526
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0017-5994 , 1433-0393
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s00129-007-2015-6
    RVK:
    XA 45550
    Language: German
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2007
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1459161-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3122868-9
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Overlapping Delta and Omicron Outbreaks During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dynamic Panel Data Estimates
    JMIR Publications Inc. ; 2022
    In:  JMIR Public Health and Surveillance Vol. 8, No. 6 ( 2022-6-3), p. e37377-
    Details
    In: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, JMIR Publications Inc., Vol. 8, No. 6 ( 2022-6-3), p. e37377-
    Abstract: The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible than prior variants of concern (VOCs). It has caused the largest outbreaks in the pandemic, with increases in mortality and hospitalizations. Early data on the spread of Omicron were captured in countries with relatively low case counts, so it was unclear how the arrival of Omicron would impact the trajectory of the pandemic in countries already experiencing high levels of community transmission of Delta. Objective The objective of this study is to quantify and explain the impact of Omicron on pandemic trajectories and how they differ between countries that were or were not in a Delta outbreak at the time Omicron occurred. Methods We used SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and genetic sequence data to classify countries into 2 groups: those that were in a Delta outbreak (defined by at least 10 novel daily transmissions per 100,000 population) when Omicron was first sequenced in the country and those that were not. We used trend analysis, survival curves, and dynamic panel regression models to compare outbreaks in the 2 groups over the period from November 1, 2021, to February 11, 2022. We summarized the outbreaks in terms of their peak rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the duration of time the outbreaks took to reach the peak rate. Results Countries that were already in an outbreak with predominantly Delta lineages when Omicron arrived took longer to reach their peak rate and saw greater than a twofold increase (2.04) in the average apex of the Omicron outbreak compared to countries that were not yet in an outbreak. Conclusions These results suggest that high community transmission of Delta at the time of the first detection of Omicron was not protective, but rather preluded larger outbreaks in those countries. Outbreak status may reflect a generally susceptible population, due to overlapping factors, including climate, policy, and individual behavior. In the absence of strong mitigation measures, arrival of a new, more transmissible variant in these countries is therefore more likely to lead to larger outbreaks. Alternately, countries with enhanced surveillance programs and incentives may be more likely to both exist in an outbreak status and detect more cases during an outbreak, resulting in a spurious relationship. Either way, these data argue against herd immunity mitigating future outbreaks with variants that have undergone significant antigenic shifts.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2369-2960
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.2196/37377
    Language: English
    Publisher: JMIR Publications Inc.
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2874192-4
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Fully percutaneous fetoscopic repair of myelomeningocele: 30‐month follow‐up data
    Wiley ; 2021
    In:  Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology Vol. 57, No. 1 ( 2021-01), p. 113-118
    Details
    In: Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology, Wiley, Vol. 57, No. 1 ( 2021-01), p. 113-118
    Abstract: This observational study reports on the postnatal mortality and 30‐month outcome of children who underwent fully percutaneous fetoscopic repair of myelomeningocele (MMC) at a single center in Giessen, Germany. Methods Between October 2010 and August 2014, a total of 72 patients underwent fully percutaneous fetoscopic MMC closure at 21 + 0 to 29 + 1 (mean, 23 + 5) weeks' gestation. Of these, 52 (72%) participated in this study; however, 30‐month mortality data are available for all 72 children. Children were examined at four timepoints: shortly after birth and at 3 months, 12 months and 30 months of corrected age. The patients underwent age‐specific standardized neurological examinations and assessment of leg movements and ambulation at all timepoints. Cognitive and motor development were assessed using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development, second edition (BSID‐II), at 30 months. Results All 72 children survived the intrauterine procedure, however, four (5.6%) infants died postnatally (including two of the 52 comprising the study cohort). Of the 52 patients included in the study, 11.5% were delivered before the 30 th week of gestation (mean, 33 + 1 weeks) and, of the survivors, 48.1% had ventriculoperitoneal shunt placement. Of the 50 infants that were alive at 30 months, independent ambulation, without orthosis, was feasible for 46%. At 30 months of follow‐up, 46% of children presented with a functional level that was at least two segments better than the anatomical level of the lesion. At 30 months, 70% of the children presented with BSID‐II psychomotor development index score of ≥ 70 and 80% with BSID‐II mental development index score of ≥ 70. Conclusion Intrauterine repair of MMC by percutaneous fetoscopy shows largely similar outcomes to those reported for open repair, with respect to mortality, prematurity, shunt‐placement rates, motor and mental development and free ambulation. © 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0960-7692 , 1469-0705
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/uog.v57.1
    DOI: 10.1002/uog.22116
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020512-0
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Earth System Prediction Suite: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling Capability
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 97, No. 7 ( 2016-07-01), p. 1229-1247
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 97, No. 7 ( 2016-07-01), p. 1229-1247
    Abstract: The Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS) is a collection of flagship U.S. weather and climate models and model components that are being instrumented to conform to interoperability conventions, documented to follow metadata standards, and made available either under open-source terms or to credentialed users. The ESPS represents a culmination of efforts to create a common Earth system model architecture, and the advent of increasingly coordinated model development activities in the United States. ESPS component interfaces are based on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), community-developed software for building and coupling models, and the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Layer, a set of ESMF-based component templates and interoperability conventions. This shared infrastructure simplifies the process of model coupling by guaranteeing that components conform to a set of technical and semantic behaviors. The ESPS encourages distributed, multiagency development of coupled modeling systems; controlled experimentation and testing; and exploration of novel model configurations, such as those motivated by research involving managed and interactive ensembles. ESPS codes include the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS); the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) and the Modular Ocean Model (MOM); the Community Earth System Model (CESM); and the NASA ModelE climate model and the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), atmospheric general circulation model.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00164.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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